Baltica 2
Part of 2.5 GW Baltica complex (Baltica 2 + Baltica 3). Located off Ustka coast, approximately 40 km from shore. Uses HVDC transmission.
Status
Under Constructionlifecycle stage
DeliveringHafrok completion outlook
Location
PolandBaltic Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,498 MW ◆
Turbines
107 × 14 MW ◆
Model
Siemens Gamesa SG 14-222 DD ◆
Foundation
Monopile ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative) · 2021 ·
Water depth
20–40 m ◆
Distance from shore
40 km ◆
Wind speed
9.9 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · 319.6 PLN/MWh ◆
Grid
Secured ◆
Connection
PSE grid connection agreement in place; onshore 275/400 kV … ◆
Schedule
FID
30 Jan 2025 ◆
COD · announced
2027-H2 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2029 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2029
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2027-H2; Hafrok expects 2029 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈98%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2028 | 10.0% |
| 2029 (expected) | 58.5% |
| 2030 | 26.6% |
| 2031 | 4.5% |
| 2032 | 0.5% |
| Stated | Announced COD |
|---|---|
| 2025-01-29 | 2027 |
| 2025-11 | 2027-H2 |
| 2026-05-11 | 2027 |
| 2026-08-13 | 2027-H2 |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2029; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2028, the slower quarter not until 2029 Q3.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2029, likely range 2028–2030 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2027) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈98%, which rates it
Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2021-06
Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative)
- Awarded to
- PGE / Ørsted
- Basis
- integrated tender
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
JV entry · 2021-02
PGE → Ørsted 50%
- Stake
- 50%
- Consideration
- €86.6m
- Implied 100% value
- €173m
- Implied
- €0.12m / MW
- Announced
- 2021-02
- Closed
- 2021-05
- Project stage
- pre-FID
Ørsted and PGE announced a 50/50 JV for Baltica 2 (1,498 MW) and Baltica 3 (1,045 MW) on 10 February 2021. Regulatory approval (Polish OCCP) granted March 2021; transaction closed mid-May 2021. The combined subscription price for new shares in both projects totalled PLN 657 million (approximately EUR 147 million at ~0.224 PLN/EUR, Q1 2021 rate). Note: this is the subscription price for new shares representing 50% — it is a development-stage cost entry, NOT a market-reflective valuation. Both projects had environmental decisions and CfD eligibility but were pre-FID; FID on Baltica 2 was only taken January 2025. Green Giraffe advised PGE on the transaction. PLN 657M total → ~EUR 147M total; split: Baltica 2 ~EUR 86.6M / Baltica 3 ~EUR 60.4M (by capacity weight 1498/2543 and 1045/2543).
Evidence
- orsted.com — Ørsted and PGE form 50-50 joint venture on Baltica 2 and 3 ↗ 2021-02 ◆ held
- globenewswire.com — Ørsted and PGE form 50-50 joint venture on Baltica 2 and 3 ↗ ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — Ørsted Buys Into Baltica 2 & 3 OWFs in Poland ↗ 2021-02 ◆ held
- orsted.com — PGE and Ørsted have closed the joint venture agreement for Polish offshore wind projects ↗ 2021-02 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2027, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
1,498 MW contracted — tender award
● Tender award · Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative)
Price319.6 PLN/MWh ·Capacity1,498 MWAwardedJun 2021Term25 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Satellite installation tracker
counted from satellite radar images · a structure standing in the sea on a given date, not a turbine producing power · a guide, not a sourced fact
Installation · counted from satellite
Foundations103 of 107≈96% · first seen 2026-05-04 · 35 seen recently, not yet confirmed
Turbinesnone yet≈0 of 107
Latest count2026-08-31from 144 satellite passes · 4 substation platforms left out so the counts compare with the turbine number · anything first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed
Hafrok counts foundations and turbines from satellite radar images (≈): a structure is counted once it is seen standing in the sea, which is not the same as producing power. A structure first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed, because on a single image a freshly set foundation and a ship holding position look alike. Substation platforms are left out so the counts compare with the number of turbines. Rows marked with a dot (·) come from Hafrok’s own registers; a supplier or contract appears only where a source states it — everything else reads “not recorded”, never guessed.
Structures standing over time · count
strong line = confirmed · light line = seen in the last 60 days, not yet confirmed · the chart counts every structure (107 turbines + 4 platforms); the table counts turbines only
foundationsturbines up (a substation top being set in place counts here too)
Satellite image
Image taken2026-09-05≈Copernicus Sentinel-1 radar satellite, southbound pass · 1 newer pass skipped because the satellite’s track only caught part of the farm (the best of them 44%)
Farm covered100%≈the whole farm lies inside the image
Structures ringed72 confirmed · 35 not yet confirmed≈as counted on 2026-08-31 · the image is newer than the count, so a bright spot without a ring may be a structure not yet counted
Construction ports
PortPort of Gdansk ◆·assembly · quay 800 m · draft 17.5 m
Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA and by Microsoft Planetary Computer.
Latest satellite radar image · 2026-09-05
a radar picture, not a photograph: the sea is dark, steel is bright · black is beyond the edge of the image
confirmed structure (72)seen recently, not yet confirmed (35)probably a substation platform (a larger structure than a turbine; the register above has the facts)farm boundary
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 4
Offshore substationBaltica 2 offshore substation 1 of 4·planning · owner Baltica 2 (Ørsted 50% / PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna 50%)
Offshore substationBaltica 2 offshore substation 2 of 4·planning · owner Baltica 2 (Ørsted 50% / PGE 50%)
Offshore substationBaltica 2 offshore substation 3 of 4·planning · owner Baltica 2 (Ørsted 50% / PGE 50%)
Offshore substationBaltica 2 offshore substation 4 of 4·planning · owner Baltica 2 (Ørsted 50% / PGE 50%)
Sources & verification
18/19 fields verified · rests on 14 sources (9 primary) · ◆ 10 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator5
[5]
PGE Baltica2025-01
"1,498 MW capacity." "107 wind turbines at 14 MW each." "Monopile foundation type." "Closest turbine distance from shore: ~40 km." "Offshore commissioning planned: 2027." "Both stages have: location d…
supportsCommercial operationTurbinesUnit capacityTotal capacityFoundation+5 more
[13]
Ørsted2026-05-11◆ Ørsted and PGE kick off offshore install…
“The wind farm, which will be located approximately 40 km off the Polish coast near Ustka, is expected to be fully commissioned in 2027. ... The CfD for Baltica 2 runs for 25 years and starts after com…”
supportsAeolus — foundation installationSvanen — foundation installation
[14]
Ørsted2025-11◆ Orsted — orsted q3 2025 investor present…
“Borkum Riffgrund 3 Changhua 2b and 4 Revolution Wind Sunrise Wind Hornsea 3 / BESS Baltica 2
Capacity1 913 MW 920 MW 704 MW 924 MW 2,852 MW / 300 MW 1,498 MW
COD Q1 2026 Q3 2026 H2 2026 H2 2027 H2 20…”
supportsCommercial operation
[15]
Ørsted2026-Q2◆ Orsted — orsted q2 2026 ir presentation
"Commercial operation date H2 2027" ... "Degree of completion is ~40%, up from ~30% at Q1 2026. Of the total 111 positions, 103 monopile foundations have been installed since commencement in May" ...…
supportsCommercial operationCOD history
[17]
PGE2026-05-11◆ Pge i oersted rozpoczely instalacje fund…
“Zgodnie z harmonogramem pierwsza energia z farmy Baltica 2 popłynie w pierwszej połowie 2027 roku, a pełne uruchomienie komercyjne planowane jest do końca 2027 roku.”
supportsFirst power
OEM1
[7]
Siemens Gamesa2023-04-20◆ Polish offshore wind expects huge boost …
“A total of 107 14-MW wind turbines will be supplied to the project, which is located around 40 km from the northern coast of Poland between Leba and Ustka.”
supportsTurbinesModelUnit capacityDistance from shore
Auction results1
[18]
Norton Rose Fulbright2026-06-22◆ pl-phase1-admin-cfd-2021-pl-owa
Poland Offshore Wind Act CfD: PLN 60,000/MW security, first power within 7 years of decision/auction-close
supportsTender award · Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative)
Trade press7
[1]
[2]
GlobeNewswire / Ørsted2021-02-10◆ Ørsted and PGE form 50-50 joint venture …
"Ørsted will subscribe for new shares representing 50% of the total share capital in Baltica 2 (Elektrownia Wiatrowa Baltica-2 sp z o.o.) … approximately 1.5 GW." "With the closing of the agreement … …
supportsowner
[3]
GlobeNewswire / Ørsted2021-04-07◆ Poland awards Contract for Difference to…
“The Polish Energy Regulatory Office has awarded a Contract for Difference to the Baltica 3 and Baltica 2 offshore wind farms with a total capacity of up to 2.5 GW at a maximum of PLN 319.60/MWh …”
supportsMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[6]
Poland at Sea2024-02-19◆ PGE: Baltica 2 with construction permits…
"Two building permits from the Pomeranian Voivode: construction of four offshore substations; construction of 107 offshore wind turbines with power and telecommunications infrastructure. These are the…
supportsConsentConsent granted
[9]
Energy Monitor2026-05-12
"The companies have installed the first monopile foundations. Van Oord is executing the installation program, which encompasses placement of 111 monopiles (107 for wind turbines and 4 for offshore sub…
supportsOnshore constructionOffshore construction
[11]
[16]
reNEWS2026-08-21
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsStatus note