Dunkirk (Dunkerque)
AO3 Round 3 project. Located in the North Sea near the Belgian border, covering 50 km2. Turbines up to 240-300m high.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Location
FranceNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
600 MW ◆
Turbines
46 ◇
Foundation
Monopile ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
France Offshore Wind Dunkerque (AO3) · 2019 ·
Water depth
19–30 m ≈
Distance from shore
10 km ◇
Wind speed
9.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · €44/MWh ◆
Grid
Offered · 2024-12 ◆
Connection
RTE grid connection: offshore substation + dual 225 kV … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2027 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2027; Hafrok expects 2030 — 3 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈82%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 14.1% |
| 2030 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2031 | 22.7% |
| 2032 | 14.6% |
| 2033 | 8.7% |
| 2034 | 5.1% |
| 2035 | 3.1% |
| 2036 | 1.8% |
| 2037 | 1.1% |
| 2038 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2030; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2028, the slower quarter not until 2030.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2028–2030 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2027) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈82%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2019-06
France Offshore Wind Dunkerque (AO3)
- Awarded to
- EDF Renouvelables + Innogy (RWE) + Enbridge
- Basis
- integrated tender
Founding JV · 2019-06
EDF Renewables · Enbridge Éolien France · innogy — The French Ministry for the Ecological and Inclusive Transition selected the EMD consortium — Eoliennes En Mer de Dunkerque — to design, build, operate and maintain the Dunkirk (Dunkerque) offshore wind farm in June 2019. The consortium comprised EDF Renewables (40%), Enbridge Éolien France S.à r.l. (30%, via Maple Power/EIH) and innogy SE (30%, subsequently renamed RWE Renewables following RWE's acquisition of innogy's renewables business in 2019-2020). The winning bid was below EUR 50/MWh for a 20-year tariff — one of the most competitive prices seen in French offshore wind at the time. This was a tender consortium formation rather than a secondary market transaction; no consideration was exchanged between partners. No subsequent equity trades in Dunkirk have been publicly reported. The project remains pre-FID as of early 2026, with autorisation environnementale granted in February 2025.
Evidence
- EDF — EDF Dunkirk consortium selected ↗ 2019-06 ◆ held
- renews.biz — EDF, Innogy, Enbridge take 600MW Dunkirk spoils ↗ 2019-06 ◆ held
From the auction results — the round that created the project; founding JV from Hafrok’s transactions record.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
600 MW contracted — tender award
● Tender award · France Offshore Wind Dunkerque (AO3)
Price€44/MWh ·Capacity600 MWAwardedJun 2019Term20 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2027
Sources & verification
6/15 fields verified · rests on 16 sources (7 primary) · ◆ 9 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator7
[3]
Eoliennes en mer de Dunkerque (EMD)2025-02-18◆ Obtention des autorisations pour le deve…
“la préfecture du Nord a délivré le 14 février 2025 un arrêté préfectoral d'autorisation environnementale pour la construction et l'exploitation du Parc éolien en mer de Dunkerque.”
supportsConsentConsent granted
[4]
RTE (Réseau de Transport d'Electricité)2026-02◆ Bilan annuel de la concertation continue…
“A EMD, un arrêté préfectoral d'autorisation environnementale pour la construction et l'exploitation du parc éolien en mer au large de Dunkerque, le 14 février 2025. [...] il s'agira de définir les com…”
supportsStatusConnection point
[5]
Europe en France / Direction Générale des Affaires Européennes2022◆ SA.51061 - France - Parc éolien en mer d…
“Le parc éolien en mer de Dunkerque, d'une puissance de 600 MW maximum, dont la mise en service est prévue en 2027, est soutenu par un complément de rémunération de l'électricité produite. [...] Entrée…”
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacityMechanismDetail
[6]
Offshore Wind Biz2019-06-20◆ Dunkirk Strike Price Is EUR 44/MWh
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityStrike / price
[7]
EDF Group2019-06-14◆ EDF Dunkirk consortium selected
“France's Ministry for the Ecological and Inclusive Transition has selected the EDF Group, via its EDF Renewables subsidiary, in partnership with Innogy and Enbridge, to design, build, operate and main…”
supportsTotal capacity
[8]
CRE (Commission de régulation de l'énergie)2023-03◆ AO4 Centre Manche 1 - CRE deliberation 2…
“Procédure dite « AO3 » - 2016 : Dunkerque (600 MW d'éolien posé) : le projet a été attribué en 2019 ; [...] le tarif de référence du lauréat de Dunkerque, proposé initialement à un niveau de 44 €2019/…”
supportsTotal capacity
[17]
DGEC — Ministère de la Transition écologique (eoliennesenmer.fr)2026-08-25◆ French Eoliennes en mer register (DGEC),…
“Register node 853 (node--type-project) at /facades-maritimes-en-france/facade-manche-mer-du-nord/dunkerque — title 'Dunkerque'; page text 2718 chars, hash 88f5194638d5fb86…. Identifying text: Le parc …”
supportsRegister entry
Auction results1
[18]
CRE (Commission de regulation de l'energie) / DGEC2018◆ fr-ao3-cahier-des-charges
AO3 Dunkerque cahier des charges ("DUNKERQUE - CAHIER DES CHARGES - 15 novembre 2018"); the dialogue concurrentiel that produced the record-low ~44 EUR/MWh strike via complement de remuneration.
supportsTender award · France Offshore Wind Dunkerque (AO3)
Trade press7
[10]
reNEWS2024◆ EDF, Innogy, Enbridge take 600MW Dunkirk…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsowner
[11]
Power Technology2024
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTurbinesTotal capacityFoundation
[12]
[13]
[14]
[15]
[16]
Unverified import1
[1]