Kitty Hawk South

Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.

Hafrok believes no approval that opens a route to build is likely to be issued in the United States before a new administration takes office, which cannot happen before January 2029. On that reading the clock for this project starts in 2029, not today: what it holds is kept, but Hafrok does not expect the process that turns it into a consent to begin before then. This is Hafrok's judgment, not a fact on the record — what it rests on: United States market page.

Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances, counted from 2029, means commercial operation before 2037 is not credible.

The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is pencilled for 2027 Q3, but on Hafrok's reading no round can award a route to build before 2029, so it is counted from then; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2031), then build time on top gives 2034. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.

Expected commercial operation 2037, likely range 2037–2042 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — and halve the result while Hafrok reads the United States route as closed (a route that has to be won again is less likely to be won) — to ≈26%, which rates it Fragile on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).