Empire Wind 1

Located 15-30 miles south of Long Island, NY. OCS-A 0512. 54x Vestas V236-15MW on Sif monopiles fabricated at Rotterdam.

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2027
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈97% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
20%40%60%80%100% 2027: 86.7% (conditional on completion) 2028: 13.3% (conditional on completion)202420252026now202787%2028 Developer-announced COD: 2027 — in line with Hafrok’s expected year ANNOUNCED = EXPECTED 2027developer cod guidance2019-07-18: the developer guided 2024-12 — source [14] — click for it2019-072024-12 [14]2025-01 → 2026-03: the developer guided 2027 in 4 statements — sources [6] [7] [17] [15] — click for the sources2026-032027 · held since 2025-01 (×4) [6,7,17,15]
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
2027 (expected)86.7%
202813.3%
Developer COD guidance, by the date it was stated
StatedAnnounced COD
2019-07-182024-12
2026-03-312027 (held since 2025-01-02, 4 statements)
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in 2024. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2027; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026, the slower quarter not until 2027 Q3.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2027, likely range 2026–2028 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈97%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2017’18’19’20’21’22’23’24’25’26’27Developer-announced COD: 2027 announced COD 2027BOEM Lease Sale 6 — awarded to Statoil Wind US LLCBOEM Lease Sale 6 Dec 2016 · auction recordView the source for Consent grantedConsent granted Feb 2024 View the source for Final investment decisionFinal investment decision 2024 View the sources for Onshore constructionOnshore construction 2024 View the sources for Offshore constructionOffshore construction 2025 Commercial operation 2027 ·Hafrok expectedBOEM Lease Sale 6 — awarded to Statoil Wind US LLC 2016-12 ORIGINATIONTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDEquinor → BP — 50.0% · closed 2021-01 2020-09 JV ENTRYBP → Equinor — 50.0% · closed 2024-04 2024-01 ACQUISITIONTODAYStatoil Wind US LLC Statoil Wind US LLC Statoil Wind US LLC not among today’s recorded owners — no sale recordedEquinor — 100% today · operator Equinor Equinor 100%BP BP BP exited 2024-01BOEM Lease Sale 6 — awarded to Statoil Wind US LLC Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. Equinor → BP — 50.0% · closed 2021-01 50%BP → Equinor — 50.0% · closed 2024-04 50%
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: slipped so far +2.5 yr (first announced 2024-12) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above

Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day

1,626 MW contracted — OREC
OREC · NYSERDA Offshore Wind Solicitation 1 (ORECRFP18-1) terminated
Price$83.36/MWh ·Capacity816 MWAwardedOct 2019
OREC · NYSERDA Fourth (Expedited) Offshore Wind Solicitation (2024)
Price$155/MWh ·Capacity810 MWAwardedFeb 2024

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Satellite installation tracker
counted from satellite radar images · a structure standing in the sea on a given date, not a turbine producing power · a guide, not a sourced fact
Installation · counted from satellite
Foundations0 of 540% · first seen —
Turbinesnone yet0 of 54
Latest count2026-08-24from 46 satellite passes · 1 substation platform left out so the counts compare with the turbine number · anything first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed
Hafrok counts foundations and turbines from satellite radar images (≈): a structure is counted once it is seen standing in the sea, which is not the same as producing power. A structure first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed, because on a single image a freshly set foundation and a ship holding position look alike. Substation platforms are left out so the counts compare with the number of turbines. Rows marked with a dot (·) come from Hafrok’s own registers; a supplier or contract appears only where a source states it — everything else reads “not recorded”, never guessed.
Satellite image
Image taken2026-08-24Copernicus Sentinel-1 radar satellite, northbound pass
Farm covered100%the whole farm lies inside the image
Structures ringed0 confirmed · 0 not yet confirmedas counted on 2026-08-24
Construction ports
PortSouth Brooklyn Marine Terminal installation base
Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA and by Microsoft Planetary Computer.
Latest satellite radar image · 2026-08-24
a radar picture, not a photograph: the sea is dark, steel is bright · black is beyond the edge of the image
confirmed structure (0)seen recently, not yet confirmed (0)probably a substation platform (a larger structure than a turbine; the register above has the facts)farm boundary
Satellite radar image over Empire Wind 1, 2026-08-24
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
Offshore substationEmpire Wind 1 Offshore Substation·planning · owner Equinor (Empire Offshore Wind LLC)

Sources & verification

18/19 fields verified · rests on 16 sources (14 primary) · ◆ 13 documents held
VerifiedModelledSourcedInferredConventionUnverifiedNo source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator3
[1]
Bureau of Ocean Energy Management / NOAA NMFS2023-11-21◆ Empire Wind Record of Decision (OCS-A 05…
“The Proposed Action would construct, operate, maintain, and decommission the 816-MW Empire Wind 1 (EW 1) Project ... within Lease Area OCS-A 0512 ... EW 1 would consist of up to 57 wind turbine genera…”
supportsStatusConnection point
[2]
Bureau of Ocean Energy Management2024-12-20◆ Empire Wind 1 COP approval letter (separ…
"BOEM has completed the re-issuance of the enclosed Conditions of COP Approval for the EW1 project area so that the conditions are specifically tailored to Empire Offshore Wind LLC's scope of operatio…
supportsConsentConsent granted
[19]
Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)2026-08-23◆ US BOEM offshore-wind register (FR docum…
“Lease row OCS-A 0512: companies ['Empire Offshore Wind , LLC']; lease_dates ['04/01/2017']; lease_terms ['25 Years']; states ['New York']; block_count 148.”
supportsRegister entry
Operator7
[4]
Equinor ASA2024-01-25◆ document
“The transactions related to Empire Offshore Wind Holdings LLC, Beacon Wind Holdings LLC and the associated project company that holds the Astoria Gateway for Renewable Energy site, closed 4 April 2024…”
supportsoperator
[5]
Equinor ASA2024-06-04◆ Equinor solidifies New York offtake cont…
“Empire Wind 1 will be America's first offshore wind project to plug directly into the New York City grid with a target to deliver first power in late 2026.”
supportsMechanismStrike / priceDetailStatusConnection point
[6]
Equinor ASA2025-01-02◆ Securing financial close for Empire Wind…
“Equinor made a final investment decision on the wholly owned and operated Empire Wind 1 project earlier this year. Construction has already begun. ... Empire Wind 1 will power 500,000 New York homes a…”
supportsFinal investment decisionCommercial operationinstallation base
[7]
Equinor ASA2025-05-19◆ Stop work order lifted, Empire Wind proj…
"The project is currently more than 30 percent complete." ... After an extensive environmental review process, the United States government approved the plan to build a commercial offshore wind farm i…
supportsOnshore constructionOffshore construction
[12]
Empire Wind (Equinor)2026
“Empire Wind 1 will generate 810 MW of renewable energy from 54 turbines ... located 15-30 miles south of Long Island ... water depth between approximately 75 and 135 feet ... Sunset Park Onshore Subst…”
supportsWater depthDistance from shoreCoordinates
[16]
Equinor ASA2026-03-19◆ Equinor — 2025 annual report on form 20 …
"In 2025, impairments mainly related to Equinor’s offshore wind projects on the US North East Coast. Regulatory changes leading to reduced expected synergies from future offshore wind projects and inc…
supportsOnshore constructionOffshore construction
[17]
Equinor2025-07-22◆ Equinor — 2q 2025 financial statements a…
“The construction activities for both onshore SBMT and offshore EW1 are progressing according to plan and the project aims to execute planned activities in the offshore installation window in 2025 a…”
supportsOnshore constructionOffshore construction
OEM1
[3]
Vestas Wind Systems A/S2024◆ Vestas secures its first U.S. offshore o…
“The order includes 54 V236-15.0 MW turbines ... with a total generating capacity of around 810 MW. The order marks Vestas' first order in the U.S. for an offshore platform and its industry-leading, ty…”
supportsTurbinesModelUnit capacityTotal capacity
Auction results2
[20]
New York PSC2026-06-22◆ us-nyserda-sol1-2019-nypsc-repricing
NY PSC denies OREC inflation-adjustment petitions (Oct 2023): the contracts had no reopener
supportsOREC · NYSERDA Offshore Wind Solicitation 1 (ORECRFP18-1)
[21]
NY Dept of Public Service2018◆ us-ny-psc-order-18e0071
NY PSC Order, Case 18-E-0071 - establishes the Offshore Wind Standard and the OREC mechanism.
supportsOREC · NYSERDA Fourth (Expedited) Offshore Wind Solicitation (2024)
Trade press3
[11]
offshoreWIND.biz2024-11-29
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsFoundation
[13]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
[15]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-03-31◆ Maersk Viridis En Route to US to Install…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCOD historyMaersk Viridis — turbine installation