Hafrok

Rampion 2

Extension to 400MW Rampion 1 wind farm off Sussex coast.

Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
RWE — 50.1% ◆
Macquarie — 25% ◆
Enbridge — 24.9% ◆
Location
United Kingdom
English Channel
Verification
10/12 fields verified
13 sources · ◆ 10 documents held
◆verified≈modelled∴inferred⌁convention·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 1,200 MW ◆ Turbines 90 ◆
Foundation —
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴
Origination The Crown Estate 2017 Offshore Wind Extensions opportunity · 2020 ·
Water depth 15–60 m ◆ Distance from shore 13 km ◆ Wind speed 9.6 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid Secured ◆ Connection Bolney National Grid Substation (400kV), via new Oakendene … ◆
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · guidance 2030 ⌁
COD · Hafrok 2032 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2032
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2030; Hafrok expects 2032 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈73% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: its size and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2031: 14.1% (conditional on completion) 2032: 28.0% (conditional on completion) 2033: 22.7% (conditional on completion) 2034: 14.6% (conditional on completion) 2035: 8.7% (conditional on completion) 2036: 5.1% (conditional on completion) 2037: 3.1% (conditional on completion) 2038: 1.8% (conditional on completion) 2039: 1.1% (conditional on completion) 2040: 0.7% (conditional on completion)2026now20282030203228%EXPECTED2034203620382040 Developer-announced COD: 2030 ANNOUNCED 2030
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
203114.1%
2032 (expected)28.0%
203322.7%
203414.6%
20358.7%
20365.1%
20373.1%
20381.8%
20391.1%
20400.7%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in 2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2029; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2027, the slower quarter not until 2030.
3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around 2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2031 Q4. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.
4
Result
Expected commercial operation 2032, likely range 2032–2033 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2030) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.
5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈73%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2021’22’23’24’25’26’27’28’29’30’31’32Developer-announced COD: 2030 announced COD 2030The Crown Estate 2017 Offshore Wind Extensions opportunity — awarded to incumbent operators of the seven parent farmsThe Crown Estate 2017 Offshore Wind Extensions opportunity Sep 2020 · auction recordView the sources for Consent grantedConsent granted 28 Apr 2025 ◆Commercial operation 2032 ·Hafrok expectedThe Crown Estate 2017 Offshore Wind Extensions opportunity — awarded to incumbent operators of the seven parent farms 2020-09 ORIGINATIONTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDTODAYincumbent operators of the seven parent farms incumbent operators of … incumbent operators of … not among today’s recorded owners — no sale recordedRWE — 50.1% today · operator RWE RWE 50.1%Macquarie — 25% today Macquarie Macquarie 25%Enbridge — 24.9% today Enbridge Enbridge 24.9%The Crown Estate 2017 Offshore Wind Extensions opportunity — awarded to incumbent operators of the seven parent farms Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
expected H2 2026 · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030

Sources & verification

10/12 fields verified · rests on 13 sources (11 primary) · ◆ 10 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator5
[2]
Planning Inspectorate2025-04-04◆ Rampion 2 Offshore Wind Farm - Project i…
“Project reference EN010117. Application submitted 10 August 2023, accepted for examination 7 September 2023. Examining Authority recommendation 6 November 2024. Decision: granted 4 April 2025. Order t…”
supportsConsentConsent granted
source ↗
[3]
HMSO / Planning Act 20082025-04-04◆ The Rampion 2 Offshore Wind Farm Order 2…
“The Rampion 2 Offshore Wind Farm Order 2025. Made 4th April 2025. Coming into force 28th April 2025. SI 2025 No. 468. Grants development consent under the Planning Act 2008 for the Rampion 2 offshore …”
supportsConsentConsent granted
source ↗
[4]
DESNZ / GOV.UK2025-04-04◆ Rampion 2 Offshore Wind Farm development…
“The Secretary of State has granted development consent for the Rampion 2 Offshore Wind Farm (reference EN010117). Application submitted 10 August 2023. Examination accepted 7 September 2023. Examining…”
supportsConsentTotal capacityConsent granted
source ↗
[11]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 7698: Site Name "Rampion Wind Farm (Extension), (Rampion 2)", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 1200 MWelec, Operator "RWE Renewabl…”
supportsRegister entry
source ↗
[13]
The Planning Inspectorate (PINS)2026-08-23◆ PINS national infrastructure application…
“Project reference EN010117: "Rampion 2 Offshore Wind Farm"; applicant "Rampion Extension Development Limited"; Stage "Post-decision"; anticipated submission Q2 2023; applied 2023-08-10; accepted 2023-…”
supportsRegister entry
source ↗
Operator5
[1]
RWE AG2025-04-04◆ UK Government gives ‘green light’ to Ram…
“Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, the Rt Hon Ed Miliband MP has today awarded a Development Consent Order (DCO) for the Rampion 2 Offshore Wind Farm project, which is being develope…”
supportsoperatorownerConsentCommercial operationTurbines+1 more
source ↗
[5]
RWE AG2021-01-18◆ Rampion 2 wind farm extension opens info…
“The Rampion 2 team has launched a four-week informal consultation... Depending on the final scheme, Rampion 2 could create clean, renewable electricity to power over one million homes in the UK... Ram…”
supportsBackground
source ↗
[7]
Rampion Extension Development Ltd / RWE2025-09
“Up to 90 wind turbines located between 13km and 26km off the Sussex coast. Water depth 15m to 60m. DCO approved 4th April 2025. Expected operational: end of the decade. Onshore cable route 38.8km unde…”
supportsTurbinesStatusConnection pointWater depthDistance from shore
source ↗
[8]
RWE AG (UK)2025◆ Rampion 2 Offshore Wind Farm
“1200MW to connect into Bolney Substation in 2028/29. RWE Renewables: 50.1% (major shareholder); Macquarie-led consortium: 25%; Enbridge: 24.9%. Onshore cables undergrounded to new substation at Oakend…”
supportsTotal capacityStatusConnection point
source ↗
[12]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-000467: "Rampion Extension Offshore Wind Farm", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2026-08-01, Customer "RAMPION EXTENSION DEVELOPMENT LIMIT…”
supportsRegister entry
source ↗
Auction pipeline1
[14]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
source ↗
Trade press2
[6]
Offshore Wind Biz2020-09-28
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
source ↗
[10]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
source ↗