Ossian
ScotWind Floating category. Located off northeast Scotland. One of largest sites awarded (858km²).
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
3,600 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
Floating ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
ScotWind Leasing · 2022 ·
Water depth
68–84 m ≈
Wind speed
10.8 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
In Progress ◆
Connection
TEC application at Western Marsh + Cousland 400kV (Scoping in … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2034 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2034
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈52%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2033 | 14.1% |
| 2034 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2035 | 22.7% |
| 2036 | 14.6% |
| 2037 | 8.7% |
| 2038 | 5.1% |
| 2039 | 3.1% |
| 2040 | 1.8% |
| 2041 | 1.1% |
| 2042 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (floating, in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2034 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2032 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2034, likely range 2034–2040 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈52%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2022-01
ScotWind Leasing
- Awarded to
- SSE Renewables
- Basis
- seabed award
Founding JV · 2022-01
SSE Renewables · Marubeni Corporation · Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners — On 17 January 2022, Crown Estate Scotland announced the results of the ScotWind leasing round, awarding 17 new offshore wind leases covering a combined 25 GW of capacity across Scotland. SSE Renewables, Marubeni Corporation, and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) were jointly awarded the right to develop the Ossian floating offshore wind farm in the Firth of Forth, 65–90 km off the Angus coast. The consortium structure is: SSE Renewables 40%, Marubeni Corporation 30%, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) 30%. The original ScotWind bid capacity was 2.6 GW; following the award, the project team identified the potential to increase this to up to 3.6 GW, which was announced in November 2022. The project is one of the world's largest proposed floating offshore wind farms, located in 85m+ water depth. Ossian won the ScotWind leasing rights through a competitive tender process. The parties signed an option to lease with Crown Estate Scotland on the award date (January 2022), with formal lease agreements to follow. Marubeni announced receipt of its notification of award on 18 January 2022. As of February 2026, Ossian is in the planning and consenting phase; scoping reports were submitted in March 2023. Data confidence: HIGH — consortium structure confirmed by all three partner announcements; no deal consideration involved.
Evidence
- sserenewables.com ↗
- marubeni.com — Receipt of Notification of Award for Seabed Leasing Rights for Development of a Floating Offshore Wind Farm in Scotland ↗ 2022-01 ◆ held
- ossianwindfarm.com — Partnership ↗ 2022-01 ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — Scotland Awards 25 GW in ScotWind Auction, More than Half for Floating Wind Farms ↗ 2022-01 ◆ held
- renewablesnow.com — SSE, Marubeni, CIP bag 2.6-GW floating wind project in ScotWind round - Offshore Wind News ↗ 2022-01 ◆ held
From the auction results — the round that created the project; founding JV from Hafrok’s transactions record.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 2
HVDC systemOssian HVDC (Scotland connection)·1800 MW · ±525 kV · planned, expected 2032
HVDC systemOssian HVDC (England connection)·1800 MW · ±525 kV · planned, expected 2032
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
4/11 fields verified · rests on 14 sources (9 primary) · ◆ 8 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator4
[4]
Marine Scotland (Scottish Government Marine Directorate)2024-07◆ Ossian S36 consent application register
“Section 36 application for Renewables - Wind — Ossian Offshore Wind Farm, south-east of Aberdeenshire Coast. Application submitted 10 July 2024.”
supportsConsentConsent applied
[7]
Planning Inspectorate2026-03-27◆ Ossian (Lincolnshire) DCO withdrawal EN0…
“The application has been withdrawn.”
supportsStatusConnection point
[15]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 13429: Site Name "Ossian", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 3600 MWelec, Operator "Scottish Power Renewables"”
supportsRegister entry
[17]
Scottish Government Marine Directorate (MD-LOT)2026-08-23◆ Scottish MD-LOT marine projects register…
“Register row "Ossian Offshore Wind Farm" (key node/23264): Application stage "Application", type "Renewables - Wind".”
supportsRegister entry
Operator4
[5]
Ossian Offshore Wind Farm (project operator site)2024-07-16
“At up to 3.6GW of installed capacity, Ossian would be among the largest floating offshore wind farms globally.”
supportsTotal capacity
[6]
SSE Renewables2026-06◆ Ossian | SSE Renewables
“SSE Renewables (40 per cent share), Marubeni Corporation (30 per cent share), and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (30 per cent share) [...] The development of Ossian continues, targeting first gene…”
supportsFirst power
[9]
[16]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-001488: "Ossian 1 Offshore Wind Farm", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2033-10-31, Customer "Ossian Offshore Wind Farm Limited"; PRO-0014…”
supportsRegister entry
Auction pipeline1
[18]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press4
[10]
[12]
[13]
[14]
Unverified import1
[1]