MarramWind
ScotWind Floating. 3 GW project 75km off northeast Aberdeenshire coast. Shell exited November 2025; ScottishPower now 100% owner.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
ScottishPower Renewables — 100% ◆Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
3,000 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
Floating ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
ScotWind Leasing · 2022 ·
Water depth
89–118 m ≈
Distance from shore
75 km ◇
Wind speed
10.6 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Applied ◆
Connection
Longside 400kV Substation — NESO TEC register entry at Scoping … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2033 ○
COD · Hafrok
2034 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2034
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2033; Hafrok expects 2034 — 1 year later.
Chance of delivery
≈52%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2033 | 14.1% |
| 2034 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2035 | 22.7% |
| 2036 | 14.6% |
| 2037 | 8.7% |
| 2038 | 5.1% |
| 2039 | 3.1% |
| 2040 | 1.8% |
| 2041 | 1.1% |
| 2042 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (floating, in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2034 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2032 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2034, likely range 2034–2040 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈52%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2022-01
ScotWind Leasing
- Awarded to
- Scottish Power Renewables
- Basis
- seabed award
Founding JV · 2022-01
ScottishPower Renewables · Shell — On 17 January 2022, Crown Estate Scotland announced that ScottishPower Renewables (a subsidiary of Iberdrola) and Shell had jointly been awarded seabed leasing rights in the ScotWind offshore leasing round for two floating offshore wind projects: MarramWind (3 GW, located off the east coast of Scotland in approximately 100m water depth) and CampionWind (2 GW, also floating, off the north-east coast of Scotland). The two joint ventures — MarramWind Limited and CampionWind Limited — are each structured as 50/50 partnerships between ScottishPower Renewables and Shell. ScottishPower Renewables and Shell formally signed their option to lease agreements with Crown Estate Scotland in April 2022, committing the two parties to the lease terms and supply chain obligations. The combined five GW portfolio of MarramWind and CampionWind would rank among the largest floating offshore wind portfolios globally if delivered. See companion record for Shell's exit from MarramWind in November 2025. Note: MarramWind is a fixed-bottom project per some sources and floating per others; Crown Estate Scotland classifies it as fixed-bottom (located in relatively shallower waters on the east coast). Data confidence: HIGH — confirmed by ScottishPower, Shell, and MarramWind press releases; 50/50 structure confirmed.
Evidence
- scottishpower.com — ScottishPower and Shell sign option to lease agreements for ScotWind projects ↗ 2022-01 ◆ held
- marramwind.co.uk — ScottishPower and Shell sign option to lease agreements for ScotWind projects ↗ 2022-01 ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — Shell, ScottishPower Begin Next Chapter of Their 5 GW Floating Wind Story in Scotland ↗ 2022-01 ◆ held
- renewablesnow.com — ScottishPower, Shell sign option agreements for 5 GW of floating wind sites - Offshore Wind News ↗ 2022-01 ◆ held
From the auction results — the round that created the project; founding JV from Hafrok’s transactions record.
Divestment · 2025-11
Shell → ScottishPower Renewables 50%
- Stake
- 50%
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2025-11
- Project stage
- early development
On 10 November 2025, Shell confirmed its exit from both of its Scottish ScotWind floating offshore wind projects — MarramWind (3 GW) and CampionWind (2 GW) — as part of a strategy refocus away from large-scale power generation equity holdings toward energy trading, retailing, and integrated energy solutions. The exit was structured as a swap arrangement: Shell transferred its 50% stake in MarramWind to ScottishPower Renewables in exchange for ScottishPower's 50% stake in CampionWind. ScottishPower thereby became the sole owner of MarramWind (100%), and Shell became the sole owner of CampionWind (100%). Shell subsequently returned the CampionWind option lease to Crown Estate Scotland. This record is classified as a divestment (Shell divesting its 50% in MarramWind) in exchange for consideration in kind (ScottishPower's CampionWind stake). The swap nature makes it atypical relative to a standard cash divestment. Data confidence: HIGH — confirmed by Shell, ScottishPower, and Offshore Wind Biz. SPR took full ownership of Marram Wind... We took SPR's share in Campion Wind, taking full ownership which we subsequently terminated, and we returned the lease to Crown Estate Scotland.' No monetary amount stated; Iberdrola FY2025 documents corroborate the swap from the other side, also without a value.
Evidence
- offshorewind.biz — Shell Confirms MarramWind Project Exit, Return of 2 GW Floating Wind Site to Crown Estate Scotland ↗ ◆ held
- renews.biz — ScottishPower takes full control of MarramWind ↗ 2025-11 ◆ held
- energyvoice.com ↗
- utilityweek.co.uk — Shell drops floating wind project after swap deal with Scottish Power ↗ 2025-11 ◆ held
- Shell plc — Shell plc — SEC Form 20-F for the period ended 2025-12-31 (filed 2026-03-12) ↗ 2026-03-12 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2033
Sources & verification
4/12 fields verified · rests on 13 sources (10 primary) · ◆ 6 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[5]
Marine Scotland (Scottish Government Marine Directorate)2026-01-19◆ MarramWind Offshore Wind Farm | marine.g…
“MarramWind Offshore Wind Farm … Application stage … Submission date 2026-01-19 … Section 36 Consent Application – Construction and Operation of Generating Station … Representations accepted as recentl…”
supportsConsentConsent applied
[17]
Scottish Government Marine Directorate (MD-LOT)2026-08-23◆ Scottish MD-LOT marine projects register…
“Register row "MarramWind Offshore Wind Farm" (key node/23499): Application stage "Application", type "Renewables - Wind".”
supportsRegister entry
Operator4
[3]
Offshore Wind Scotland2026-01-23
“ScottishPower Renewables submits planning application for MarramWind … MarramWind takes the number of ScotWind projects that have applied for planning permission to seven with one, West of Orkney, alr…”
supportsTotal capacity
[4]
Offshore Wind Biz2026-01-26
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
[10]
NESO2026-06-12◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“Marram Wind Offshore Wind Farm,Marramwind Limited,Longside 400kV Substation,2,0,2000,3000,31/10/2033,Scoping,Direct Connection,SHET,Wind Offshore”
supportsStatusConnection point
[16]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-001406-1: "Marram Wind Offshore Wind Farm", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2031-10-31, Customer "Marramwind Limited"; PRO-001406-2: "Mar…”
supportsRegister entry
Auction pipeline1
[18]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press5
[11]
reNEWS2025-11◆ ScottishPower takes full control of Marr…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperator
[12]
NS Energy2026
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityFoundationDistance from shore
[13]
[14]
[15]
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacityFoundationWater depthDistance from shore+1 more