Hornsea 3
Will be world's single largest offshore wind farm. Part of Hornsea Zone cluster with total ~8GW potential.
Status
Under Constructionlifecycle stage
DeliveringHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Ørsted — 50% ◆Apollo-led consortium — 50% ◆
Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
2,852 MW ◆
Turbines
197 × 14 MW ◆
Model
Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD ◆
Foundation
Monopile ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Crown Estate Round 3 · 2010 ·
Water depth
26–67 m ≈
Distance from shore
120 km ◆
Wind speed
10.3 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · AR4 · £37.35/MWh ◆
Grid
Under construction ◆
Connection
TEC secured (UC project, grid connected) ◆
Schedule
FID
Dec 2023 ◆
COD · announced
2028-Q1 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2028 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2028
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈98%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a very large build and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2028 (expected) | 86.7% |
| 2029 | 13.3% |
| Stated | Announced COD |
|---|---|
| 2023-12-20 | 2027 (held since 2022-07-07, 2 statements) |
| 2024-09-03 | 2028 |
| 2025-03-31 | 2027 |
| 2025-11-05 | 2027-H2 |
| 2026-05-06 | 2028-Q1 |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2028; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2027, the slower quarter not until 2029.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2028, likely range 2027–2029 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈98%, which rates it
Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2010-01
Crown Estate Round 3
- Awarded to
- SMart Wind (Mainstream Renewable Power + Siemens Project Ventures)
- Zone
- Hornsea zone
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Farmdown · 2025-11
Ørsted → Apollo Global Management 50%
- Stake
- 50%
- Consideration
- €5,224m
- Implied 100% value
- €10,448m
- Implied
- €3.54m / MW
- Announced
- 2025-11
- Closed
- 2025-12
- Project stage
- under construction
On 4 November 2025, Ørsted announced an agreement to divest a 50% equity ownership share in the 2.9 GW Hornsea 3 Offshore Wind Farm to funds managed by Apollo Global Management, Inc. The transaction completed on 30 December 2025. Total transaction value: approximately DKK 39 billion (approximately EUR 5.2 billion at DKK/EUR 7.46). The DKK 20bn paid at closing consists of DKK 10bn SPA price + DKK 10bn initial construction payment. Milestone payments account for the remainder (DKK ~19bn). The deal structure commits Apollo to fund 50% of all future EPC contract payments under a full-scope EPC contract where Ørsted constructs the project. Ørsted will also provide long-term O&M services from its East Coast O&M hub. Implied 100% project value: EUR 5,224m / 50% × 100% = EUR 10,448m. This covers the full project (wind farm + HVDC transmission). Implied EUR/MW: EUR 10,448m / 2,955 MW × 1,000,000 = EUR 3,537,000/MW. Note: the DKK 39bn includes committed future capex, not purely the equity stub value — the pure equity transfer price is DKK ~10bn (SPA price), which equals EUR ~1,340m for 50%, implying a pure-equity 100% value of EUR ~2.7bn (EUR 913,000/MW), well below the construction-stage range. The headline DKK 39bn is the most commonly reported deal quantum and is used here. FX check: GBP 4.5bn (Energy Voice) × 1.19 = EUR 5.35bn ≈ consistent. USD 5.6bn × 0.95 = EUR 5.32bn ≈ consistent. EUR 5.2bn is primary. CfD awarded in Allocation Round 4 (July 2022) at GBP 37.35/MWh (2012 prices); expected commissioning ~end 2027 (updated guidance: 2028-2029). Total project capex: DKK 70-75bn. Ørsted retains 50% and is EPC contractor and O&M operator. Apollo's commitment is one of the largest infrastructure transactions in UK offshore wind history. This is the priority record in this batch. Data confidence: HIGH — deal quantum confirmed by Ørsted press release; EUR/DKK conversion is direct.
Evidence
- Ørsted A/S — Orsted signs agreement to divest 50% stake in Hornsea 3 to Apollo ↗ 2025-11 ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — Ørsted Offloads Half of Hornsea 3 in EUR 5.2 Billion Transaction with Apollo ↗ 2025-11 ◆ held
- apollo.com — Apollo Funds Commit $6.5 Billion to Ørsted’s Hornsea 3 in the UKApollo Global Management ↗ 2025-11 ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — Apollo Becomes Co-Owner of Hornsea 3 Offshore Wind Farm ↗ 2025-11 ◆ held
- renewablesnow.com — Ørsted unveils 50% stake sale in Hornsea 3 to Apollo funds - Offshore Wind News ↗ 2025-11 ◆ held
- energyvoice.com — Ørsted sells 50% Hornsea 3 stake to Apollo in £4.5bn deal ↗ 2025-11 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: slipped so far +0.6 yr (first announced 2027) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
CfD-backed — 2 allocation rounds
● CfD · AR4
Price£37.35/MWh ·Basis2012 real · CPI-indexed
Capacity2,852 MWAwardedJul 2022Term15 yrs · delivery 2026/27
● CfD · AR6
Price£54.23/MWh ·Basis2012 real · CPI-indexed
Capacity1,080 MWAwardedSep 2024Term15 yrs · delivery 2027/28
Money-of-the-day values computed by Hafrok from the United Kingdom CPI index, 2012 real base — actual to 2026-07, then an assumed +2.0%/yr (central-bank target). Cfd terms run 15 years from start of generation in the contracted delivery year.
Contract price over time · £/MWh
solid = actual CPI indexation · dashed = assumed +2.0%/yr
CfD · AR4CfD · AR6
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Satellite installation tracker
counted from satellite radar images · a structure standing in the sea on a given date, not a turbine producing power · a guide, not a sourced fact
Installation · counted from satellite
Foundations46 of 197≈23% · first seen 2026-03-25 · 24 seen recently, not yet confirmed
Turbinesnone yet≈0 of 197
Latest count2026-08-30from 187 satellite passes · 2 substation platforms left out so the counts compare with the turbine number · anything first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed
Hafrok counts foundations and turbines from satellite radar images (≈): a structure is counted once it is seen standing in the sea, which is not the same as producing power. A structure first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed, because on a single image a freshly set foundation and a ship holding position look alike. Substation platforms are left out so the counts compare with the number of turbines. Rows marked with a dot (·) come from Hafrok’s own registers; a supplier or contract appears only where a source states it — everything else reads “not recorded”, never guessed.
Structures standing over time · count
strong line = confirmed · light line = seen in the last 60 days, not yet confirmed · the chart counts every structure (197 turbines + 2 platforms); the table counts turbines only
foundationsturbines up (a substation top being set in place counts here too)
Installation contracts
FoundationsWind Ally◇Cadeler · foundation and turbine installation vessel · 2026-03 → · Underway
FoundationsWind Orca◇Cadeler · turbine installation vessel · 2026-06 → · Underway
TurbinesNorse Energi◇Deme · foundation and turbine installation vessel · 2026-Q3 · Contracted
Turbinesvessel not yet named◇2026-Q4 → 2027 · Contracted
Offshore substationSleipnir◇Heerema · heavy-lift vessel · 2026-03 → · UnderwaySatellite image
Image taken2026-09-07≈Copernicus Sentinel-1 radar satellite, northbound pass
Farm covered92%≈a ring on black is a structure this pass could not see, not a mistake
Structures ringed24 confirmed · 24 not yet confirmed≈as counted on 2026-08-30 · the image is newer than the count, so a bright spot without a ring may be a structure not yet counted
Construction ports
PortTeesworks (Steel River Quay) ◆·foundations / marshalling · quay 450 m · draft 13.6 m
PortPort of Tyne ◆·secondary steel · draft 13.5 m
Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA and by Microsoft Planetary Computer.
Latest satellite radar image · 2026-09-07
a radar picture, not a photograph: the sea is dark, steel is bright · black is beyond the edge of the image
confirmed structure (24)seen recently, not yet confirmed (24)probably a substation platform (a larger structure than a turbine; the register above has the facts)farm boundary
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 2
HVDC systemHornsea 3 Link 1 HVDC·1426 MW · ±320 kV · under construction, expected 2027
HVDC systemHornsea 3 Link 2 HVDC·1426 MW · ±320 kV · under construction, expected 2027
Export & onshore
Export cableHornsea 3 Export Cable·HVDC subsea · 220 km · NKT · under construction · to Norwich, Norfolk
Onshore connectionSwardeston Onshore Converter Station (Hornsea 3)·400 kV · under construction
Converter supplierHitachi Energy·Hornsea 3 Link 1 HVDC · Aibel (Maptaphut, Thailand + Haugesund, Norway) · for National Grid ESO
Converter supplierHitachi Energy·Hornsea 3 Link 2 HVDC · Aibel (Maptaphut, Thailand + Haugesund, Norway) · for National Grid ESO
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
14/17 fields verified · rests on 28 sources (16 primary) · ◆ 20 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator5
[3]
Planning Inspectorate2020-12-31◆ Hornsea Project Three Offshore Wind Farm…
“This application was granted on 31 December 2020. ... Approximately 120km offshore, to the east of Trimingham [Norfolk]. ... Hornsea Project Three Offshore Wind Farm ... This project is at the post-de…”
supportsConsentConsent granted
[6]
GOV.UK (BEIS / Low Carbon Contracts Company)2022-07-07◆ Contracts for Difference (CfD) Allocatio…
“Hornsea Project Three (Ørsted): 2,852 MW awarded an inflation-indexed strike price of £37.35/MWh (2012 prices), delivery year 2026/27 (CfD AR4, awarded 7 July 2022).”
supportsMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[22]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 2472: Site Name "Hornsea 3", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 2955 MWelec, Operator "Orsted (formerly Dong Energy)"”
supportsRegister entry
[30]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-08-03◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q2 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 2472: Site Name "Hornsea 3", Development Status "Under Construction", Installed Capacity 2955 MWelec, Operator "Orsted (formerly Dong Energy)", Record Last Upda…”
supportsRegister entry
[31]
The Planning Inspectorate (PINS)2026-08-23◆ PINS national infrastructure application…
“Project reference EN010080: "Hornsea Project Three Offshore Wind Farm"; applicant "Orsted Hornsea Project Three (UK) Ltd"; Stage "Post-decision"; anticipated submission May 2018; applied 2018-05-14; a…”
supportsRegister entry
Operator8
[11]
Ørsted2026-02-11◆ First foundations for Orsted Hornsea 3 O…
“First foundations for Ørsted's Hornsea 3 offshore wind farm arrive in the UK.”
supportsWind Ally — foundation installation
[13]
Ørsted2025-07◆ Orsteds Hornsea 3 backs Teesworks Steel …
“Ørsted's Hornsea 3 backs Teesworks' Steel River Quay as first large-scale offshore wind port users [marshalling of monopile foundations].”
supportsfoundations / marshallingsecondary steel
[21]
Ørsted (Interim report, first quarter 2026)2026-05-06◆ Ørsted interim financial report Q1 2026
“Following discussions with National Grid and National Energy System Operator regarding delays to the grid connection date for Hornsea 3, we now anticipate first power for the project in Q1 2027 with C…”
supportsFirst powerCOD history
[23]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-000434-1: "Hornsea Power Station 3", Status "Consents Approved", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2026-10-01, Customer "HORNSEA PROJECT THREE (UK) LIMITED";…”
supportsRegister entry
[24]
Ørsted A/S2026-02◆ Orsted — green finance impact report 202…
"Hornsea 3 2,852 UK Under construction 2023-2027 1,881 5,844 - √" ... "Eksfin Hornsea 3 525 5252 2,852 – 127"
supportsTotal capacity
[27]
Ørsted A/S2025-Q3◆ Ørsted Q3 2025 earnings call transcript
“We continue to manage the risks related to the installation of the project, and we remain on track for commissioning in the second half of 2027.”
supportsCommercial operation
[28]
Ørsted A/S2026-05-06◆ Ørsted Q1 2026 earnings call transcript
“For Hornsea 3, we have made significant progress. We have commenced the installation of turbine foundations, pulled the export cable onshore to meet its onshore counterpart and successfully installed …”
supportsStatus note
[29]
Ørsted2026-Q2◆ Orsted — orsted q2 2026 ir presentation
"Commercial operation date Q4 2027 / Q1 2028" ... "Degree of completion ~30 %, up from 25 % in Q1 2026" ... "Of the total 197 positions, the project has installed 43 turbine foundations, and the inst…
supportsBackground
Auction results2
[32]
BEIS (gov.uk)2022-07◆ cfd-ar4-results-2022
Offshore Wind (Pot 3) cleared GBP 37.35, delivery 2026/27: Inch Cape Phase 1 1,080.00 MW; EA3 Phase 1 1,372.34 MW; Norfolk Boreas Phase 1 1,396.00 MW; Hornsea Project Three 2,852.00 MW; Moray West 294…
supportsCfD · AR4
[33]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2024-09◆ cfd-ar6-results-2024
New offshore wind (Pot 3) GBP 58.87, 2028/29: Hornsea Project Four 2,400.00 MW; East Anglia Two Phase 1 963.07 MW. Offshore Wind Permitted Reduction GBP 54.23, 2027/28: Inch Cape A 177.41 / B 88.70 MW…
supportsCfD · AR6
Record source4
[34]
Cadeler A/S2026-06-14◆ cadeler-installs-first-complete-monopile
...e scopes across vessels and project partners. The monopile itself was installed by Cadeler’s purpose-built A-class vessel, Wind Ally, while Wind Orca executed the installation of secondary steel. T…
supportsWind Orca — foundation installation
[35]
offshore-energy.biz / offshoreWIND.biz2026-05-14◆ oe-norse-energi-windanker-hornsea3-2026-…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsNorse Energi — turbine installation
[36]
Cadeler A/S2023-04-25◆ cadeler-orsted-two-contracts-2023-04
The second contract is for the installation of around half of the Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs) required. The turbine project is forecast to begin just as the foundations project is completed around …
supportsVessel — turbine installation
[37]
Heerema2026-03-24◆ heerema-hfg-hornsea-3-first-jacket-2026-…
This first jacket, Link 01, stands 54 meters tall and will support one of the project's Offshore Converter Stations (OCS)... Link 01 was loaded out on Wednesday, 11 March, and was towed to the SSCV Sl…
supportsSleipnir — substation installation
Trade press9
[1]
offshoreWIND.biz2023-12-21
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsFinal investment decisionUnit capacityTotal capacity
[2]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-05-14
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsOffshore constructionTurbinesModelFoundationDistance from shore
[8]
Windtech International2025-12-30
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsStatusConnection point
[14]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-09-26
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsfoundations / marshallingsecondary steel
[15]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-12◆ Apollo Becomes Co-Owner of Hornsea 3 Off…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperatorowner
[16]
Windpower Monthly2026-05-06
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCommercial operation
[17]
Vozpopuli2026-05-25
“Orsted says National Grid has informed it of a delay tied to works at the Norwich Main substation, shifting expectations to first power in Q1 2027 and commissioning across Q4 2027 into Q1 2028. Projec…”
supportsCommercial operation
[18]
[19]