East Anglia ONE North
Located approximately 37.7 km from Lowestoft, East Anglia ONE North is an 800 MW offshore wind farm consented on 31 March 2022 jointly with East Anglia TWO.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
ScottishPower Renewables — 100% ◇Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
800 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Maker
Siemens Gamesa (model not recorded) ◆
Foundation
Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Crown Estate Round 3 · 2010 ·
Water depth
39–55 m ≈
Distance from shore
37.7 km ◆
Wind speed
10.0 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Secured · 31 Mar 2022 ◆
Connection
Onshore substation at Friston, Suffolk, connecting to National … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2032 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2032
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈76%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. An open route to win an offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2031 | 14.2% |
| 2032 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2033 | 24.0% |
| 2034 | 14.4% |
| 2035 | 8.0% |
| 2036 | 4.4% |
| 2037 | 2.4% |
| 2038 | 1.3% |
| 2039 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2022. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2026 Q4; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2025 Q1, the slower quarter not until 2028 Q1.3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2032 Q1. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2032, likely range 2031–2033 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The auction step above sets the date: the round has to be won before building can start.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈76%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2010-01
Crown Estate Round 3
- Awarded to
- East Anglia Offshore Wind Ltd (ScottishPower Renewables + Vattenfall)
- Zone
- Norfolk Bank (East Anglia) zone
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Dashed tick marks today (3 Nov 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
No CfD. Prepared for CfD AR6 (2024) but not among the AR6 awards, and not among the AR7 awards (January 2026); Iberdrola (August 2026) says it is eligible for the next UK auctions. No offtake secured. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Construction ports
PortFriston Substation Site ◆onshore substation
PortGreat Yarmouth ∅
PortPort of East Anglia ∅
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 0
Platformnone on the register
Export & onshore
Onshore connectionFriston Substation (Sea Link connection)·400 kV · planning · also serves East Anglia TWO
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
Rests on 19 sources (9 primary) · ◆ 10 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator7
[1]
Planning Inspectorate2022-03-31◆ East Anglia ONE North Offshore Windfarm …
“East Anglia ONE North Offshore Windfarm — Post-decision stage. "The application was granted on 31 March 2022." Applicant: East Anglia ONE North Limited. Installed capacity: up to 800 MW. Up to 67 turb…”
supportsConsentTotal capacityDistance from shoreConsent granted
[2]
UK Government (BEIS)2022-03-31◆ No longer available - GOV.UK
“The Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy consented the East Anglia ONE North Offshore Windfarm application on 31 March 2022. The project could consist of up to 67 turbines w…”
supportsTotal capacity
[5]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2024-09-03◆ Contracts for Difference Allocation Roun…
“Offshore Wind (Pot 3) awardees in AR6: Inch Cape A (177.41 MW), Inch Cape B (88.70 MW), Moray Offshore Windfarm West String 9 (73.50 MW), EA3B (158.90 MW), Hornsea Three AR6 A/B/C (3 × 360 MW), Hornse…”
supportsDetailOfftake history
[14]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 2471: Site Name "East Anglia 1 North (EA 4)", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 800 MWelec, Operator "Scottish Power Renewables"”
supportsRegister entry
[17]
legislation.gov.uk (The National Archives)2022-03-31◆ The East Anglia ONE North Offshore Wind …
“Work No. 1 (a) an offshore wind turbine generating station with a gross electrical output capacity of over 100 MW comprising up to 67 wind turbine generators each fixed to the seabed by one of five fo…”
supportsFoundation
[18]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (gov.uk)2026-01-14◆ Contracts for Difference Allocation Roun…
“The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has today, 14 January 2026, published the outcome of Allocation Round 7 ... (A) CfD Allocation Round 7 – Information on successful Pot 3 and Pot 4 Appli…”
supportsDetail
[19]
Marine Management Organisation (published by the Planning Inspectorate)2026-02-04
“In October 2025 the Marine Management Organisation (MMO) received a request from the Project to vary the DMLs for EA ONE North (Schedules 13 and 14) contained within the Order. The request was to make…”
supportsStatus note
Operator3
[10]
[15]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“East Anglia One North,EAST ANGLIA ONE NORTH LIMITED,Friston 400kV Substation,1,0,860,860,30/10/2029,Awaiting Consents,Direct Connection,NGET,Wind Offshore,a0l4L0000005irNQAQ,PRO-000269-1, / East Angli…”
supportsStatusConnection point
[16]
Iberdrola2026-08-19◆ Iberdrola promotes shipping sector elect…
“In addition, the company has the approximately 900 MW East Anglia 1 North project, which has secured all the necessary permits and is eligible to participate in the next auctions in the UK, as well as…”
supportsStatus note
Auction pipeline1
[20]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press8
[3]
offshoreWIND.biz2022-04-01
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
[4]
offshoreWIND.biz (reporting SPR announcement)2021-02-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsMaker
[6]
offshoreWIND.biz2024-02-23◆ Iberdrola Preparing Two East Anglia Offs…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsDetail
[7]
Suffolk Energy Action Solutions (reporting SPR event)2026-02-26
“ScottishPower Renewables held a Public Information Day at Friston Village Hall on 26 February 2026, focusing on ongoing and upcoming works related to the construction of the platforms for the East Ang…”
supportsonshore substation
[8]
Lumify Energy2026
“East Anglia ONE North is set to be ready by 2030. The project involves a £2.5 billion investment, covers 203 km², and will employ up to 2,300 people. Located approximately 36 km from the port of Lowes…”
supportsBackground
[11]
4C Offshore (TGS)2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
[12]
[13]
Early access