Dogger Bank D

Proposed fourth phase of the 3.6GW Dogger Bank Wind Farm, located around 210km off the coast of England.

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2033
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2031; Hafrok expects 2033 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈56% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2032: 14.1% (conditional on completion) 2033: 28.0% (conditional on completion) 2034: 22.7% (conditional on completion) 2035: 14.6% (conditional on completion) 2036: 8.7% (conditional on completion) 2037: 5.1% (conditional on completion) 2038: 3.1% (conditional on completion) 2039: 1.8% (conditional on completion) 2040: 1.1% (conditional on completion) 2041: 0.7% (conditional on completion)2026now2028203020312032203328%EXPECTED2034203620382040 Developer-announced COD: 2031 ANNOUNCED 2031
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
203214.1%
2033 (expected)28.0%
203422.7%
203514.6%
20368.7%
20375.1%
20383.1%
20391.8%
20401.1%
20410.7%
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.
2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2033 is not credible.
3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around 2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2031 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.
4
Result
Expected commercial operation 2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.
5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈56%, which rates it Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2027’28’29’30’31’32’33Developer-announced COD: 2031 announced COD 2031Commercial operation 2033 ·Hafrok expectedSSE Renewables, Equinor — stake not disclosed 2022-10 JV FORMATIONTODAYSSE Renewables — 50% today · operator SSE Renewables SSE Renewables 50%Equinor — 50% today · developer Equinor Equinor 50%SSE Renewables, Equinor — stake not disclosed
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. Ownership lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8
expected H2 2026 · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2031
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 0
Platformnone on the register
Export & onshore
Onshore connectionBirkhill Wood 400kV Substation·400 kV · consented · also serves Dogger Bank South East, Dogger Bank South West
Onshore connectionHigh Marnham Substation·400 kV · planning · also serves Dogger Bank South East, Dogger Bank South West
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
20262027202820292030203120322033Hafrok expects the farm to start in 2033developer’s stated start 2031nowBirkhill Wood 400kV SubstationBirkhill Wood 400kV SubstationHigh Marnham SubstationHigh Marnham Substationexpected 2031expected 2031

Sources & verification

8/13 fields verified · rests on 10 sources (6 primary) · ◆ 6 documents held
VerifiedModelledSourcedInferredConventionUnverifiedNo source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[11]
The Planning Inspectorate (PINS)2026-08-23◆ PINS national infrastructure application…
“Project reference EN010144: "Dogger Bank D Wind Farm"; applicant "Doggerbank Offshore Wind Farm Project 4 Projco Limited"; Stage "Pre-application"; anticipated submission in June 2027.”
supportsSite rights
Operator4
[2]
NESO2026-06-12◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“Dogger Bank D Offshore Wind Farm,Doggerbank Offshore Wind Farm Project 4 Projco Limited,Birkhill Wood 400kV Substation,,0,1450,1450,31/10/2031,Scoping,Direct Connection,NGET,Wind Offshore,a1f4L000000E…”
supportsConsentCommercial operationStatusConnection point
[3]
Dogger Bank Wind Farm JV (SSE Renewables / Equinor)2025-08-26◆ SSE and Equinor finalise seabed lease fo…
“SSE and Equinor each own 50% of the proposed Dogger Bank D development ... up to 1.5GW of additional renewable electricity capacity from the 3.6GW Dogger Bank Wind Farm ... Delivery of Dogger Bank D i…”
supportsoperatordeveloperTotal capacity
[9]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-001675: "Dogger Bank D Offshore Wind Farm", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2031-10-31, Customer "Doggerbank Offshore Wind Farm Project 4…”
supportsRegister entry
[10]
Dogger Bank Wind Farm2025-06-06◆ Members of the public invited to have th…
“Out at sea, the project proposes an offshore wind farm array covering a site of 262km 2 with up to 113 installed offshore wind turbines. Each turbine would be installed on a fixed bottom foundation. .…”
supportsTurbinesFoundationDistance from shore
Auction pipeline1
[12]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press3
[5]
4C Offshore2026
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityCoordinates
[7]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
[8]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown
supportsTotal capacityWater depthCoordinates