Dogger Bank D
Proposed fourth phase of the 3.6GW Dogger Bank Wind Farm, located around 210km off the coast of England.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
SSE Renewables — 50% ◆
Equinor — 50% ◆Location
North Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,500 MW ◆
Turbines
113 ◆
Foundation
Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed ◆
Water depth
22–29 m ≈
Distance from shore
210 km ◆
Wind speed
10.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Applied ◆
Connection
Birkhill Wood 400kV Substation — NESO TEC register entry at … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2031 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2033 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2033
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2031; Hafrok expects 2033 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈56%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2032 | 14.1% |
| 2033 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2034 | 22.7% |
| 2035 | 14.6% |
| 2036 | 8.7% |
| 2037 | 5.1% |
| 2038 | 3.1% |
| 2039 | 1.8% |
| 2040 | 1.1% |
| 2041 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2033 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2031 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈56%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
JV formation · 2022-10
SSE Renewables · Equinor stake not disclosed
- Stake
- not disclosed
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2022-10
- Project stage
- early development
On 6 October 2022, SSE Renewables and Equinor announced that they were assessing the potential for a fourth phase of the Dogger Bank Wind Farm — Dogger Bank D — to be developed under the existing Dogger Bank seabed lease (Dogger Bank C lease area) utilising The Crown Estate's Capacity Increase Programme. The proposed Dogger Bank D would add up to 1,320–2,000 MW of additional fixed-bottom offshore wind capacity. SSE Renewables and Equinor each hold a 50% stake in the proposed Dogger Bank D development (consistent with their existing 50/50 structure on Dogger Bank A, B, and C). In July 2024, SSE and Equinor established commercial terms with The Crown Estate for an amendment to the existing Dogger Bank C seabed lease to incorporate Dogger Bank D; the lease amendment was formally executed in late 2024. The original October 2022 announcement referenced 1.32 GW; subsequent programme documents reference up to 2 GW. This JV formation is an extension of the existing Dogger Bank A/B/C partnership (Equinor 50% / SSE 50%); it does not represent a new JV with new entrants. The project is in early development as of February 2026 (no DCO application submitted yet; pending HRA and Crown Estate lease finalisation). Note: The pre-existing Dogger Bank A/B/C transactions (Equinor + SSE JV formation, plus various farmdowns and secondary trades) are covered in earlier batches of this database; this record covers only the Dogger Bank D extension announcement. Data confidence: HIGH — 50/50 structure confirmed by SSE and Equinor press releases.
Evidence
- offshoreWIND.biz — BREAKING: SSE, Equinor Plan 1.3 GW Dogger Bank D Offshore Wind Project ↗ 2022-10 ◆ held
- equinor.com — Fourth phase of the world’s largest offshore wind farm Dogger Bank to unlock additional renewable power ↗ 2022-10 ◆ held
- doggerbank.com — Equinor and SSE Renewables carry out early scoping work on potential 4th phase of Dogger Bank Wind Farm ↗ 2022-10 ◆ held
- doggerbank.com — SSE and Equinor establish commercial terms of seabed lease for Dogger Bank D, subject to HRA ↗ 2022-10 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. Ownership lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2031
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 0
Platformnone on the register
Export & onshore
Onshore connectionBirkhill Wood 400kV Substation·400 kV · consented · also serves Dogger Bank South East, Dogger Bank South West
Onshore connectionHigh Marnham Substation·400 kV · planning · also serves Dogger Bank South East, Dogger Bank South West
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
8/13 fields verified · rests on 10 sources (6 primary) · ◆ 6 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[11]
The Planning Inspectorate (PINS)2026-08-23◆ PINS national infrastructure application…
“Project reference EN010144: "Dogger Bank D Wind Farm"; applicant "Doggerbank Offshore Wind Farm Project 4 Projco Limited"; Stage "Pre-application"; anticipated submission in June 2027.”
supportsSite rights
Operator4
[2]
NESO2026-06-12◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“Dogger Bank D Offshore Wind Farm,Doggerbank Offshore Wind Farm Project 4 Projco Limited,Birkhill Wood 400kV Substation,,0,1450,1450,31/10/2031,Scoping,Direct Connection,NGET,Wind Offshore,a1f4L000000E…”
supportsConsentCommercial operationStatusConnection point
[3]
Dogger Bank Wind Farm JV (SSE Renewables / Equinor)2025-08-26◆ SSE and Equinor finalise seabed lease fo…
“SSE and Equinor each own 50% of the proposed Dogger Bank D development ... up to 1.5GW of additional renewable electricity capacity from the 3.6GW Dogger Bank Wind Farm ... Delivery of Dogger Bank D i…”
supportsoperatordeveloperTotal capacity
[9]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-001675: "Dogger Bank D Offshore Wind Farm", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2031-10-31, Customer "Doggerbank Offshore Wind Farm Project 4…”
supportsRegister entry
[10]
Dogger Bank Wind Farm2025-06-06◆ Members of the public invited to have th…
“Out at sea, the project proposes an offshore wind farm array covering a site of 262km 2 with up to 113 installed offshore wind turbines. Each turbine would be installed on a fixed bottom foundation. .…”
supportsTurbinesFoundationDistance from shore
Auction pipeline1
[12]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press3
[5]
4C Offshore2026
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityCoordinates
[7]
[8]
Unverified import1
[1]