Caledonia
ScotWind Mixed category (fixed and floating foundations possible). Part of Ocean Winds' Scottish portfolio.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Ocean Winds — 100% ◆Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
2,000 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
Mixed fixed-bottom and floating ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
ScotWind Leasing · 2022 ·
Water depth
49–83 m ≈
Wind speed
10.5 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Scoping ◆
Connection
SSEN Transmission substation at Greens 400kV (Aberdeenshire) ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2031 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2033 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2033
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2031; Hafrok expects 2033 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈68%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2032 | 14.1% |
| 2033 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2034 | 22.7% |
| 2035 | 14.6% |
| 2036 | 8.7% |
| 2037 | 5.1% |
| 2038 | 3.1% |
| 2039 | 1.8% |
| 2040 | 1.1% |
| 2041 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (floating, in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2032.3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2032 Q4. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2033, likely range 2033–2034 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2031) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈68%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2022-01
ScotWind Leasing
- Awarded to
- Ocean Winds
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2031
Sources & verification
6/12 fields verified · rests on 14 sources (11 primary) · ◆ 6 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator3
[14]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 12307: Site Name "Moray Firth - Caledonia North Offshore Wind Farm", Development Status "Application Submitted", Installed Capacity 900 MWelec, Operator "Ocean …”
supportsRegister entry
[16]
Scottish Government2026-07-17◆ Offshore wind farms approved
“The North and South Caledonia offshore windfarms, which will cover an area of 429km 2 with up to 140 wind turbines, have been granted consents and marine licences by the Scottish Government. [...] Cal…”
supportsConsentFoundationConsent granted
[17]
Scottish Government Marine Directorate (MD-LOT)2026-08-23◆ Scottish MD-LOT marine projects register…
“Register row "Caledonia North and South Offshore Wind Farms" (key ml/caledonia-offshore-wind-farm): Application stage "Licence", type "Renewables - Wind".”
supportsRegister entry
Operator5
[6]
Caledonia Offshore Wind Farm (Ocean Winds)2026-06
“Construction of the onshore elements for Caledonia will begin 2028. Construction of the offshore elements for Caledonia will begin 2029/30. Caledonia is planned to be operational, supplying two millio…”
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacity
[7]
Offshore Wind Biz2026-05-15
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityStatusConnection point
[8]
Caledonia Offshore Wind Farm (Ocean Winds)2024-11-20
“Caledonia Offshore Wind Farm submitted its application for offshore planning consent to the Scottish Government's Marine Directorate on 20th November 2024. The development encompasses 2000MW generatio…”
supportsTotal capacity
[9]
Ocean Winds2024-11
“Caledonia is an offshore wind farm being developed adjacent to Moray East and represents a continuation of the project delivery Ocean Winds is proud of in the Moray Firth.”
supportsoperator
[15]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-001436-1: "Caledonia Offshore Wind Farm", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2031-03-31, Customer "CALEDONIA OFFSHORE WIND FARM LIMITED"; PR…”
supportsRegister entry
Auction pipeline1
[18]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press4
[10]
[11]
[12]
[13]
Unverified import1
[1]