Greater Changhua 2
Greater Changhua 2 (632 MW) combines the former GC2a (295 MW, operational) and GC2b (337 MW, under construction, COD ~Q3 2026 after an export-cable delay) into a single unit under Ørsted's 2025 regrouping. Ørsted owns 100% today; a…
Status
Under Constructionlifecycle stage
DeliveringHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Ørsted — 100% ◇Location
TaiwanTaiwan Strait
Technology
Capacity
632 MW ◇
Turbines
— ◇
Model
Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD ◇
Foundation
Jacket ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Water depth
30–35 m ≈
Wind speed
11.2 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Mar 2023 ◆
COD · announced
2026-Q3 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2026 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2026
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈97%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. Its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet pull this one slightly below that.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2026 (expected) | 86.7% |
| 2027 | 13.3% |
| Stated | Announced COD |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-11 | 2025 |
| 2026-05-07 | 2026-Q3 (held since 2025-11-05, 2 statements) |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in
2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2027; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026, the slower quarter not until 2028.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2026, likely range 2026–2028 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈97%, which rates it
Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Farmdown · 2025-12
Ørsted → Cathay Life / Cathay Power 55%
- Stake
- 55%
- Consideration
- €670m
- Implied 100% value
- €1,218m
- Implied
- €1.93m / MW
- Announced
- 2025-12
- Project stage
- under construction
On 23 December 2025 Ørsted agreed to sell a 55% stake in the 632 MW Greater Changhua 2 Offshore Wind Farm to Cathay Life Insurance and its affiliate Cathay Power. The PR states the deal in ONE quantity: "Cathay will acquire a 55 % ownership stake of Ørsted's 632 MW Greater Changhua 2 Offshore Wind Farm" and "The total value of the transaction for the 55% equity stake is approximately DKK 5 billion (approx. TWD 25 billion) and takes into consideration the existing project financing arrangements". DKK 5bn at DKK/EUR 0.134 = EUR 670m; implied 100% equity value EUR 1,218m (670/0.55, the schema- standard gross-up). WHICH QUANTITY: an equity consideration struck AFTER the DKK 20bn July-2025 project financing package, not an enterprise value - do not compare it like-for-like with an unlevered EV. Post-transaction: Ørsted 45%, Cathay 55%. That double-counted 632 MW and read as 110% of one project sold. The sub-asset allocation was our modelling and appears nowhere in the source, so it is not recoverable evidence - it is removed rather than re-homed.
Evidence
- Ørsted A/S — Ørsted brings in Cathay as investor in Greater Changhua 2 Offshore Wind Farm in Taiwan ↗ 2025-12 ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — Ørsted Sells Majority Stake in Taiwanese Offshore Wind Farm to Cathay ↗ 2025-12 ◆ held
- greentechlead.com — Orsted Sells 55% Stake in 632 MW Greater Changhua 2 Offshore Wind Farm to Cathay ↗ 2025-12 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. Ownership lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: slipped so far +1.1 yr (first announced 2025) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
632 MW contracted — feed-in tariff
● Feed-in tariff · Taiwan 2018 Offshore Wind Capacity Allocation — Selection (遴選)
Priceprice undisclosed ·Capacity294.8 MWAwardedApr 2018Term20 yrs
● Feed-in tariff · Taiwan 2018 Offshore Wind Capacity Allocation — Competitive Auction (競標)
Price2.548 TWD/kWh ·Capacity337.1 MWAwardedJun 2018Term20 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation under way
no satellite count yet: this farm is outside the tracker’s coverage so far
Installation · on record
StageUnder Construction
Offshore constructionstarted 2025-02
Expected start of operation2026-Q3
Sources & verification
3/13 fields verified · rests on 15 sources (5 primary) · ◆ 7 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator5
[9]
Ørsted A/S2025-08-11◆ Orsted — interim financial report q2 202…
“Achieved first power at Greater Changhua 2b and 4 in July. ... Due to a delay in wind turbine blade delivery and a slow start to array cable installation, COD for Greater Changhua 2b is expected by th…”
supportsFirst power
[10]
Ørsted Taiwan2022-04-21◆ Ørsted achieves first power of Greater C…
“announced today (21) the successful delivery of first power of the Greater Changhua 2a Offshore Wind Farm”
supportsFirst power
[11]
Ørsted A/S2026-05-07◆ Ørsted IR presentation Q1 2026
“Capacity 920 MW Offtake contract Fully secured with TSMC through CPPA Commercial operation date Q3 2026”
supportsCommercial operationCOD history
[12]
Ørsted A/S2026-05-06◆ Ørsted Q1 2026 earnings call transcript
“Turning to slide 7 and an update on our Greater Changhua 2b and 4 project in Taiwan. With the progress achieved during the quarter, the degree of completion is now at 80 %, up from 75 % in Q4 '25. The…”
supportsStatus note
[14]
Ørsted2026-Q2◆ Orsted — orsted q2 2026 ir presentation
“3. The project finance proceeds related to Greater Changhua 2 will contribute to the overall proceeds target once the equity farm-down is completed. ... Borkum Riffgrund 3 Changhua 2b and 4 Revolution…”
supportsBackground
Auction results2
[15]
Conventus Law2026-06-22◆ tw-selection-2018-tw-2018-bond
Taiwan 2018 grid allocation: Stage-1 NT$4m/MW + Stage-2 NT$2m/MW performance bond; establishment permit before end-2019
supportsFeed-in tariff · Taiwan 2018 Offshore Wind Capacity Allocation — Selection (遴選)
[16]
Conventus Law2026-06-22◆ tw-auction-2018-tw-2018-bond
Taiwan 2018 grid allocation: Stage-1 NT$4m/MW + Stage-2 NT$2m/MW performance bond; establishment permit before end-2019
supportsFeed-in tariff · Taiwan 2018 Offshore Wind Capacity Allocation — Competitive Auction (競標)
Trade press8
[1]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-12-24
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperatorTotal capacity
[2]
The Wind Power2025
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsModelUnit capacityCoordinates
[3]
Offshore Wind2025
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsFoundation
[4]
[5]
offshoreWIND.biz2018-02-09
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentConsent granted
[6]
Ocean Energy Resources2023-03-31
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsFinal investment decision
[7]
GreentechLead2025-02-18
“Key milestones include the offshore construction launch in February 2025, expected first power in Q3 2025, and full grid connection in 2026.”
supportsOffshore constructionSite rights
[8]