Hafrok

Dadu II

Proposed Ørsted development off Changhua County in the Taiwan Strait, covering approximately 234.6 km² of sea area with the nearest point about 38 km from shore.

Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Ørsted — 100% ◇
Location
Taiwan
Taiwan Strait
Verification
2/5 fields verified
3 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆verified◇sourced·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 2,002 MW ◇
Turbines —
Foundation —
Site & conditions
Site rights Application filed 2026-07 ◆ Distance from shore 38 km ◆
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid —
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · Hafrok 2033 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2033
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈56% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2032: 14.1% (conditional on completion) 2033: 28.0% (conditional on completion) 2034: 22.7% (conditional on completion) 2035: 14.6% (conditional on completion) 2036: 8.7% (conditional on completion) 2037: 5.1% (conditional on completion) 2038: 3.1% (conditional on completion) 2039: 1.8% (conditional on completion) 2040: 1.1% (conditional on completion) 2041: 0.7% (conditional on completion)2026now202820302032203328%EXPECTED2034203620382040
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
203214.1%
2033 (expected)28.0%
203422.7%
203514.6%
20368.7%
20375.1%
20383.1%
20391.8%
20401.1%
20410.7%
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.
2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2033 is not credible.
3
Still needs an offtake award: TW-ZONAL-3-3-2026
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around 2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2031 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.
4
Result
Expected commercial operation 2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.
5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈56%, which rates it Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

2027’28’29’30’31’32’33Commercial operation 2033 ·Hafrok expected
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Taiwan Round 3 Zonal Development — Block 3.3 (區塊開發 3-3) ◇
expected H2 2026 · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project
Applications opened 1 April 2026 and close end-September 2026; results expected end-2026 (year-level estimate, no official results date announced).

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated

Sources & verification

2/5 fields verified · rests on 3 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[3]
Taiwan Ministry of Environment (環境部) — EIA public-meetings registry2026-08-23◆ Taiwan MOENV EIA docket, offshore-wind e…
“Public-meeting row, pubExplainId e64c71c2-cb47-4177-827d-b2d0258454c7: title "大肚二號離岸風力發電計畫環境影響說明書公開會議", startDate 2026-08-13, createTime 2026-07-31T12:24:56, meetingBasisDisplayName "開發行為環境影響評估作業準則第15…”
supportsConsentSite rightsDistance from shore
source ↗
Auction pipeline1
[4]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-03◆ tw-zonal33-owbiz-2026
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTaiwan Round 3 Zonal Development — Block 3.3 (區塊開發 3-3)
source ↗
Trade press1
[1]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-08-19◆ Orsted Proposes New 2 GW Offshore Wind F…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperatorTotal capacityDistance from shore
source ↗