Swedish Kriegers Flak
Located 30 km south of Trelleborg. Sweden's most mature offshore wind project before shelving. Would generate ~2.7 TWh/year.
Status
On Holdlifecycle stage
FragileHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Vattenfall — 100% ◆Location
SwedenBaltic Sea
Technology
Capacity
640 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held 2022-05 ◇
Water depth
19–40 m ≈
Distance from shore
30 km ◇
Wind speed
10.1 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Not recorded ◇
Connection
Subsea cable permit granted; grid connection point TBD ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2028 ◇
COD · Hafrok
—
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
—
on hold — no credible date; the chart shows when a restarted project might complete
The developer's last guidance was 2028 · not treated as a schedule while the project is on hold
Chance of delivery
≈13%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Projects put on hold complete ≈15% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a market with a thinner delivery record, its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet. Only a restart would change that — there is no dated schedule to judge against.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2033 | 20.0% |
| 2034 | 20.0% |
| 2035 | 20.0% |
| 2036 | 20.0% |
| 2037 | 20.0% |
| Stated | Announced COD |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 2028 (held since 2022-05-19, 2 statements) |
How Hafrok got this date
1
On hold — no dated schedule
The project is recorded as On Hold, so no sequence of milestones can be trusted. Hafrok publishes no expected year; the chart instead spreads the remaining chance of completion over the years a restarted project might finish in.
2
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of On Hold projects that went on to complete — ≈15%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Historically only a minority of projects put on hold returned to delivery — the estimate reflects that. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈13%, which rates it
Fragile on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Announced COD: held (announced 2028, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageOn Hold
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2028
Construction ports
PortMalmö ◇unknown
PortTrelleborg ◇unknown
Sources & verification
1/13 fields verified · rests on 7 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator3
[1]
Vattenfall2024-09-02◆ Vattenfall to pause offshore wind projec…
“Vattenfall has decided to pause the development of the offshore wind power project Swedish Kriegers Flak. [...] Located about 30 km south of Trelleborg. [...] Estimated annual generation: 2.7 TWh of f…”
supportsCOD historyDistance from shoreunknown
[2]
Vattenfall2022-05-19◆ Swedish Government grants permit for off…
"The Swedish Government has granted Vattenfall a construction permit for Swedish Kriegers Flak. [...] Approximately 640 MW. [...] Kriegers Flak is located 30 km south of Trelleborg, Sweden. [...] Vatt…
supportsConsentCommercial operationSite rightsTotal capacityConsent granted
[4]
Trade press4
[3]
[5]
[6]
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