Kattegat Syd
Located 25 km off Falkenberg, Halland coast. 103-122 km2 area. 60-80 turbines on fixed-bottom foundations. Expected to generate ~5 TWh/year.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Vattenfall — 100% ◆Location
SwedenKattegat
Technology
Capacity
1,200 MW ◆
Turbines
80 ◇
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held 2023-05 ◆
Water depth
31–43 m ≈
Wind speed
9.8 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Secured · 2025-04 ◆
Connection
Grid concession (natkoncession) granted by the Swedish … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · guidance
2033 ⌁
COD · Hafrok
2033 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2033
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈65%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a market with a thinner delivery record, its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2032 | 3.9% |
| 2033 (expected) | 50.2% |
| 2034 | 29.5% |
| 2035 | 10.6% |
| 2036 | 3.8% |
| 2037 | 1.4% |
| 2038 | 0.6% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2023. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2028; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026, the slower quarter not until 2028.3
No route to market yet — counted from 2029
The project has no offtake contract yet. No contract, auction or tariff exists in Sweden today that a project without an offtake agreement could win, and none is scheduled. Hafrok believes a first support award there is unlikely before
2029 Q3, and counts from then. This is Hafrok's judgment, not a fact on the record — what it rests on: Sweden market page. The permits are not affected; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2031 Q3), then build time on top gives 2034 Q3. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2033, likely range 2033–2035 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈65%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2033
Sources & verification
5/12 fields verified · rests on 9 sources (4 primary) · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator4
[4]
Regeringen (Swedish Government)2023-05-16◆ De havsbaserade vindkraftsparkerna Galen…
“Regeringen har beslutat att ge tillstand till Galene och Kattegatt Syd att bygga och driva tva vindkraftsparker utanfor Sveriges territorialvatten”
supportsConsentSite rightsConsent granted
[5]
Regeringen (Swedish Government)2025-04-03◆ Grönt ljus för undervattenskablar till K…
“Regeringen har beslutat om tillstand till bottenundersokningar och kabelutlaggning for den redan tillstandsgivna havsbaserade vindkraftparken Kattegatt Syd”
supportsStatusConnection point
[6]
Vattenfall2025-07◆ Vindkraftsprojekt Kattegatt Syd - Vatten…
“Circa 1 200 MW installerad effekt [...] Planerat drifttagande: Tidigt 2030-tal.”
supportsoperatorCommercial operationTotal capacity
[7]
Offshore Wind Biz2025-07-18
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
Trade press4
[8]
offshoreWIND.biz2023-05
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTurbinesTotal capacity
[9]
[10]
[11]
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTurbinesTotal capacityWater depthCoordinates