Fyrskeppet
Located ~50 km off the Uppsala County coast in the southern Bothnian Sea (permit decision: ~54 km east of Söderhamn).
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Skyborn Renewables — 100% ◆Location
SwedenBothnian Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,400 MW ◆
Turbines
93 × 15 MW ◇
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held 2026-07 ◆
Water depth
30–60 m ◇
Distance from shore
50 km ◇
Wind speed
9.6 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
No agreement ◇
Connection
Grid connection application submitted to Svenska Kraftnät; … ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2035 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2035
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈63%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a market with a thinner delivery record, its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2034 | 14.1% |
| 2035 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2036 | 22.7% |
| 2037 | 14.6% |
| 2038 | 8.7% |
| 2039 | 5.1% |
| 2040 | 3.1% |
| 2041 | 1.8% |
| 2042 | 1.1% |
| 2043 | 0.7% |
| Stated | Announced COD |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 2032 |
| 2026-06-16 | 2030 |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2031.3
No route to market yet — counted from 2029
The project has no offtake contract yet. No contract, auction or tariff exists in Sweden today that a project without an offtake agreement could win, and none is scheduled. Hafrok believes a first support award there is unlikely before
2029 Q3, and counts from then. This is Hafrok's judgment, not a fact on the record — what it rests on: Sweden market page. The permits are not affected; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2031 Q3), then build time on top gives 2034 Q3. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2035, likely range 2033–2035 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The auction step above sets the date: the round has to be won before building can start.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈63%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).
Announced COD: pulled forward -2.0 yr (first announced 2032) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Construction ports
PortGävle ◇assembly
Sources & verification
5/15 fields verified · rests on 6 sources (4 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator5
[1]
Skyborn Renewables2023-07-07◆ Skyborn Submits Permit Application For F…
“Skyborn Sweden has submitted a permit application to the Swedish government for the construction, operation and decommissioning of Fyrskeppet offshore wind farm. Fyrkeppet is located approximately 50 …”
supportsUnit capacityStatusConnection pointDistance from shoreassembly
[2]
Skyborn Renewables2026-06-16
“Fyrskeppet is situated in the Bothnian Sea, approximately 50 km off the coast in Uppsala county … capacity of 2,800 MW, utilizing a maximum of 215 wind turbines … anticipated commercial operation date…”
supportsCOD historyWater depthDistance from shoreCoordinates
[5]
[7]
Regeringskansliet (Klimat- och näringslivsdepartementet)2026-07-16◆ Nya beslut om havsbaserad vindkraft
"Två nya havsbaserade vindkraftsparker har beviljats tillstånd. Det handlar om Fyrskeppet Offshore i södra Bottenhavet och Vidar i norra Skagerrak. [...] Enligt tillståndet ska vindkraftparkerna vara …
supportsConsentSite rightsTurbinesConsent granted
[8]
Skyborn Renewables2026-07-16◆ Swedish Government Approves Fyrskeppet O…
“Under the conditions outlined in the Government's decision today, the fully developed wind farm is expected to have an installed capacity of approximately 1,400 MW and generate around 5 TWh of renewab…”
supportsTotal capacity
Trade press1
[6]