Baltyk 3
Twin project with Baltyk 2, combined 1,440 MW. Located off Ustka coast, approximately 22 km from shore. Landfall near Ustka.
Status
Under Constructionlifecycle stage
DeliveringHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Equinor — 50% ◆
Polenergia — 50% ◆Location
PolandBaltic Sea
Technology
Capacity
720 MW ◆
Turbines
50 × 14.4 MW ◆
Model
Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD ◆
Foundation
Monopile ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative) · 2021 ·
Water depth
25–39 m ◆
Distance from shore
22 km ◆
Wind speed
9.8 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · 319.6 PLN/MWh ◆
Grid
Secured ◆
Connection
PSE Slupsk Wierzbiecino substation via onshore substations at … ◆
Schedule
FID
19 May 2025 ◆
COD · announced
2028 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2028 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2028
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈98%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2028 (expected) | 86.7% |
| 2029 | 13.3% |
| Stated | Announced COD |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 2028 (held since 2025-05-19, 4 statements) |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in
2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2028; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2027, the slower quarter not until 2028 Q3.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2028, likely range 2027–2029 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈98%, which rates it
Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2021-06
Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative)
- Awarded to
- Polenergia / Equinor
- Basis
- integrated tender
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
JV entry · 2018-05
Polenergia → Equinor 50%
- Stake
- 50%
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2018-05
- Project stage
- early development
Same transaction as Baltyk 2 JV formation (22 May 2018). Equinor acquired 50% of Polenergia Bałtyk III S.A. (720 MW, formerly MFW Bałtyk Środkowy II). Covered under single agreement with Baltyk 2. Financial terms not publicly disclosed. Early development stage at deal time. CfD awarded May 2021 at PLN 319.60/MWh. FID May 2025; financial close >EUR 3 billion (each project) May 2025. Construction underway since June 2025; first power 2027/2028.
Evidence
- polenergia.pl — Polenergia finalized agreement with Equinor ↗ 2018-05 ◆ held
- renewablesnow.com — Equinor takes 50% in huge Polish offshore wind scheme - Offshore Wind News ↗ 2018-05 ◆ held
- nsenergybusiness.com — Equinor to buy 50% stake in Polish offshore wind project from Polenergia ↗ 2018-05 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2028, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
720 MW contracted — tender award
● Tender award · Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative)
Price319.6 PLN/MWh ·Capacity720 MWAwardedJun 2021Term25 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Satellite installation tracker
counted from satellite radar images · a structure standing in the sea on a given date, not a turbine producing power · a guide, not a sourced fact
Installation · counted from satellite
Foundations28 of 50≈56% · first seen 2026-07-01 · 26 seen recently, not yet confirmed
Turbinesnone yet≈0 of 50
Latest count2026-08-31from 95 satellite passes · 1 substation platform left out so the counts compare with the turbine number · anything first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed
Hafrok counts foundations and turbines from satellite radar images (≈): a structure is counted once it is seen standing in the sea, which is not the same as producing power. A structure first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed, because on a single image a freshly set foundation and a ship holding position look alike. Substation platforms are left out so the counts compare with the number of turbines. Rows marked with a dot (·) come from Hafrok’s own registers; a supplier or contract appears only where a source states it — everything else reads “not recorded”, never guessed.
Structures standing over time · count
strong line = confirmed · light line = seen in the last 60 days, not yet confirmed · the chart counts every structure (50 turbines + 1 platform); the table counts turbines only
foundationsturbines up (a substation top being set in place counts here too)
Installation contracts
FoundationsThialf◇Heerema · heavy-lift vessel · 2026-05 → 2026-09 · CompletedSatellite image
Image taken2026-09-06≈Copernicus Sentinel-1 radar satellite, southbound pass
Farm covered100%≈the whole farm lies inside the image
Structures ringed3 confirmed · 26 not yet confirmed≈as counted on 2026-08-31 · the image is newer than the count, so a bright spot without a ring may be a structure not yet counted
Construction ports
PortŁeba O&M base (completion mid-2026) ◆operations and maintenance
Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA and by Microsoft Planetary Computer.
Latest satellite radar image · 2026-09-06
a radar picture, not a photograph: the sea is dark, steel is bright · black is beyond the edge of the image
confirmed structure (3)seen recently, not yet confirmed (26)probably a substation platform (a larger structure than a turbine; the register above has the facts)farm boundary
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
Offshore substationBaltyk 3 offshore substation·planning · owner Equinor 50% / Polenergia 50% (MFW Baltyk III)
Sources & verification
18/19 fields verified · rests on 14 sources (13 primary) · ◆ 11 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator8
[1]
Equinor2025-05-22◆ Financial close for Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk …
“Final investment decisions were taken on May 19, 2025, with financial close achieved by May 23, 2025. The projects total 1,440 MW (720 MW each), jointly owned by Equinor (50%) and Polenergia (50%). Tw…”
supportsoperatorco-developerFinal investment decisionCommercial operationTotal capacity
[2]
Polenergia2025-06-26◆ The construction of the Bałtyk 2 and Bał…
“Two onshore substations, cable routes connecting the coast with the energy infrastructure, an O&M base in Łeba – the construction of onshore infrastructure for the Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk 3 offshore wind …”
supportsOnshore constructionOffshore constructionFirst powerStatusConnection point+1 more
[6]
Polenergia2025-01-01
“The President of URE granted the right to cover the negative balance of the so-called differential contract at a price of PLN 319.6 per 1 MWh, and Baltyk 3 is included in the first phase of developmen…”
supportsWater depthDistance from shoreCoordinates
[8]
Equinor2022-02-22◆ Turbine supplier selected for Baltyk II …
“Equinor and Polenergia have selected the Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD offshore wind turbine for both MFW Bałtyk II and MFW Bałtyk III. The combined capacity of both projects totals 1440 MW.”
supportsModel
[9]
Sif Group2024-02-16◆ Sif and Equinor Polenergia JV agree on f…
“Sif and Equinor Polenergia JV agreed on final terms for Bałtyk II + Bałtyk III. Firm contracts for 100 monopile foundations for wind turbines, 50 units for each project, in the Polish exclusive econom…”
supportsTurbinesFoundation
[14]
Polenergia2026-07-14◆ Landfall hdd completed for the baltyk 2 …
“Landfall HDD has been completed at the construction site of the Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk 3 offshore wind farms, a joint venture between Equinor and Polenergia.”
supportsStatus note
[15]
Polenergia2026-07-01◆ Baltyk 2 3 turbine foundations halfway c…
“Foundation installation began at Bałtyk 2, located 37 kilometres offshore, where monopiles and transition pieces were installed first. At the same time, work continued on Bałtyk 3, situated 22 kilomet…”
supportsOnshore constructionOffshore constructionCOD history
[17]
Heerema Marine Contractors2026-09-02◆ Heerema Marine Contractors Installs 100 …
“Heerema Marine Contractors has successfully completed the offshore foundation installation campaign for the Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk 3 offshore wind farms in the Baltic Sea, safely delivering the work well…”
supportsThialf — foundation installation
Financier1
[7]
European Investment Bank2025-05-20◆ Poland: EIB extends €700 million for dev…
“The European Investment Bank provided EUR 700 million total (EUR 350 million for each wind farm), signed on May 20, 2025. The twin projects consist of fixed-bottom installations featuring approximatel…”
supportsTurbinesUnit capacityTotal capacityFoundation
Auction results1
[18]
Norton Rose Fulbright2026-06-22◆ pl-phase1-admin-cfd-2021-pl-owa
Poland Offshore Wind Act CfD: PLN 60,000/MW security, first power within 7 years of decision/auction-close
supportsTender award · Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative)
Trade press4
[3]
Offshore Wind Biz2026-02-18◆ Offshore Construction Starts on Polish B…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsOnshore constructionOffshore constructionTurbinesModelFoundation
[4]
Offshore Wind Biz2024-08-22◆ All Construction Permits Granted for Bał…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentStatusConnection pointConsent granted
[5]
Offshore Wind Biz2021-05-05
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[11]