Baltyk 2

Twin project with Baltyk 3, combined 1,440 MW. Located off Ustka coast. Landfall via horizontal directional drilling near Ustka.

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2028
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈98% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
20%40%60%80%100% 2028: 86.7% (conditional on completion) 2029: 13.3% (conditional on completion)2026now2027202887%2029 Developer-announced COD: 2028 — in line with Hafrok’s expected year ANNOUNCED = EXPECTED 2028developer cod guidance2025-05 → 2026-07: the developer guided 2028 in 5 statements — sources [2] [1] [16] [17] [19] — click for the sources2026-072028 · held since 2025-05 (×5) [2,1,16,17,19]
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
2028 (expected)86.7%
202913.3%
Developer COD guidance, by the date it was stated
StatedAnnounced COD
2026-07-012028 (held since 2025-05-19, 5 statements)
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in 2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2028; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2027, the slower quarter not until 2028 Q3.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2028, likely range 2027–2029 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈98%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2022’23’24’25’26’27’28Developer-announced COD: 2028 announced COD 2028Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative) — awarded to Polenergia / EquinorPoland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative) Jun 2021 · auction recordView the source for Consent grantedConsent granted Aug 2024 View the source for Final investment decisionFinal investment decision May 2025 View the sources for Onshore constructionOnshore construction Jun 2025 View the sources for Offshore constructionOffshore construction Jan 2026 Commercial operation 2028 ·Hafrok expectedPoland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative) — awarded to Polenergia / Equinor 2021-06 ORIGINATIONPolenergia → Equinor — 50.0% 2018-05 JV ENTRYTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDKulczyk Investments (Mansa Investments) → Brookfield — stake not disclosed · €143m · closed 2021-02 2020-11 TODAYPolenergia — 50% today · developer Polenergia Polenergia 50%Equinor — 50% today · operator Equinor Equinor 50%Kulczyk Investments (Mansa Investments) Kulczyk Investments Kulczyk Investments exited 2020-11Brookfield Brookfield Brookfield exited 2020-11Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative) — awarded to Polenergia / Equinor Polenergia → Equinor — 50.0% 50%Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. Kulczyk Investments (Mansa Investments) → Brookfield — stake not disclosed · €143m · closed 2021-02
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2028, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above

Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day

720 MW contracted — tender award
Tender award · Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative)
Price319.6 PLN/MWh ·Capacity720 MWAwardedJun 2021
Term25 yrs

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Satellite installation tracker
counted from satellite radar images · a structure standing in the sea on a given date, not a turbine producing power · a guide, not a sourced fact
Installation · counted from satellite
Foundations48 of 5096% · first seen 2025-11-12 · 2 seen recently, not yet confirmed
Turbines4 of 508% · first seen 2025-11-12
Latest count2026-08-30from 181 satellite passes · 1 substation platform left out so the counts compare with the turbine number · anything first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed
Hafrok counts foundations and turbines from satellite radar images (≈): a structure is counted once it is seen standing in the sea, which is not the same as producing power. A structure first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed, because on a single image a freshly set foundation and a ship holding position look alike. Substation platforms are left out so the counts compare with the number of turbines. Rows marked with a dot (·) come from Hafrok’s own registers; a supplier or contract appears only where a source states it — everything else reads “not recorded”, never guessed.
Structures standing over time · count
strong line = confirmed · light line = seen in the last 60 days, not yet confirmed · the chart counts every structure (50 turbines + 1 platform); the table counts turbines only
foundationsturbines up (a substation top being set in place counts here too)
204051 planned (turbines and platforms)latest count 2026-08-30foundations — running total, confirmedfoundations — running total, seen in the last 60 days and not yet confirmedNov 2025 — 1 this month · 1 in totalApr 2026 — 1 this month · 2 in totalMay 2026 — 29 this month · 31 in totalJun 2026 — 18 this month · 49 in totalJul 2026 — 0 this month · 49 in totalAug 2026 — 0 this month · 49 in totalturbines up — running total, confirmedturbines up — running total, seen in the last 60 days and not yet confirmedNov 2025 — 1 this month · 1 in totalApr 2026 — 0 this month · 1 in totalMay 2026 — 0 this month · 1 in totalJun 2026 — 1 this month · 2 in totalJul 2026 — 2 this month · 4 in totalAug 2026 — 1 this month · 5 in total49 foundations5 turbines upNov 2025Apr 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026Aug 2026Thialf · Foundations
Satellite image
Image taken2026-09-05Copernicus Sentinel-1 radar satellite, southbound pass
Farm covered100%the whole farm lies inside the image
Structures ringed47 confirmed · 2 not yet confirmedas counted on 2026-08-30 · the image is newer than the count, so a bright spot without a ring may be a structure not yet counted
Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA and by Microsoft Planetary Computer.
Latest satellite radar image · 2026-09-05
a radar picture, not a photograph: the sea is dark, steel is bright · black is beyond the edge of the image
confirmed structure (47)seen recently, not yet confirmed (2)probably a substation platform (a larger structure than a turbine; the register above has the facts)farm boundary
Satellite radar image over Baltyk 2, 2026-09-05
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
Offshore substationBaltyk 2 offshore substation·planning · owner Equinor 50% / Polenergia 50% (MFW Baltyk II)

Sources & verification

15/19 fields verified · rests on 16 sources (14 primary) · ◆ 13 documents held
VerifiedModelledSourcedInferredConventionUnverifiedNo source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator9
[1]
Equinor2025-05-22◆ Financial close for Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk …
“The projects were awarded Contracts for Difference (CfD) in 2021, securing power prices at approximately EUR 71 per MWh (2021 price) for 25 years, with inflation indexation. Full commercial power prod…”
supportsFinal investment decisionCommercial operationTurbinesTotal capacityDistance from shore
[2]
Polenergia2025-05-19◆ Equinor and Polenergia take Final Invest…
“Equinor and Polenergia have taken the Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for the Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk 3 offshore wind projects. The electricity generated by Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk 3 will be connected to Po…”
supportsStatusConnection point
[4]
Equinor2021-05-04◆ Breakthrough for Equinor in Polish offsh…
“Equinor and Polenergia's Baltyk II and Baltyk III projects have been awarded contracts for difference (CfD) under the first phase of Poland's offshore wind development scheme. Reference price: PLN 319…”
supportsoperatordeveloperMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[6]
Equinor2022-02-22◆ Turbine supplier selected for Baltyk II …
“Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD turbine selected. 14 MW nominal power, up to 15 MW with Power Boost. Rotor diameter: 236 meters. Covers the combined 1,440 MW capacity of both offshore wind farms in Poland…”
supportsModelUnit capacity
[7]
Sif Holding N.V.2024-02-16◆ Sif and Equinor Polenergia JV agree on f…
“Final contracts for the supply of 100 monopiles to the joint venture of Equinor and Polenergia for the Bałtyk II + Bałtyk III offshore wind projects. 50 units per wind farm. Manufacturing start Q2 202…”
supportsTurbinesFoundation
[17]
Polenergia2026-05-25◆ Kick off of offshore installation the fi…
“The Baltyk 2 & 3 is expected to deliver its first power in 2027 and be fully operational in 2028.”
supportsFirst powerCommercial operation
[18]
Polenergia2026-07-14◆ Landfall hdd completed for the baltyk 2 …
“Landfall HDD has been completed at the construction site of the Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk 3 offshore wind farms, a joint venture between Equinor and Polenergia.”
supportsStatus note
[19]
Polenergia2026-07-01◆ Baltyk 2 3 turbine foundations halfway c…
“The offshore wind farms being built by Equinor and Polenergia have reached the halfway point in foundation installation. As part of this investment in the Baltic Sea, more than 50 monopiles and transi…”
supportsOnshore constructionOffshore constructionCOD history
[21]
Heerema Marine Contractors2026-09-02◆ Heerema Marine Contractors Installs 100 …
“Heerema Marine Contractors has successfully completed the offshore foundation installation campaign for the Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk 3 offshore wind farms in the Baltic Sea, safely delivering the work well…”
supportsThialf — foundation installation
Financier1
[8]
European Investment Bank2025-05-23◆ Poland: EIB extends €700 million for dev…
“EUR 700 million in financing: EUR 350 million for Bałtyk 2 and EUR 350 million for Bałtyk 3. 100 wind turbines of 14.4 MW each. Expected to go online fully in 2028.”
supportsTurbinesUnit capacity
Auction results1
[22]
Norton Rose Fulbright2026-06-22◆ pl-phase1-admin-cfd-2021-pl-owa
Poland Offshore Wind Act CfD: PLN 60,000/MW security, first power within 7 years of decision/auction-close
supportsTender award · Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative)
Trade press5
[9]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-06-30◆ Equinor and Polenergia's Bałtyk 2 & 3 Of…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsOnshore constructionOffshore constructionModelTotal capacity
[10]
offshoreWIND.biz2024-08-22◆ All Construction Permits Granted for Bał…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentConsent granted
[13]
NS Energy Business2025-01
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsModelUnit capacityWater depthDistance from shore
[14]
Global Energy Monitor2026-07-02
supportsCoordinates
[15]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed