Baltyk 1
Located on the Central Bank, 81 km from coast. Up to 104 turbines planned. Will power approximately 2 million Polish households.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Polenergia — 50% ◇
Equinor — 50% ◇Location
PolandBaltic Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,560 MW ◆
Turbines
104 ◆
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Poland offshore CfD Phase 2 (first competitive auction) · 2025 ·
Water depth
21–39 m ≈
Distance from shore
81 km ◆
Wind speed
10.1 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · 492.32 PLN/MWh ◇
Grid
Secured ◆
Connection
Krzemienica substation (PSE grid connection agreement in place) ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2032 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2032 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2032
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈78%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; a market with a thinner delivery record, a very large build and technical complexity pull the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2031 | 3.9% |
| 2032 (expected) | 50.2% |
| 2033 | 29.5% |
| 2034 | 10.6% |
| 2035 | 3.8% |
| 2036 | 1.4% |
| 2037 | 0.6% |
| Stated | Announced COD |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 2032 (held since 2026-04-15, 2 statements) |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2031.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2032, likely range 2029–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈78%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2025-12
Poland offshore CfD Phase 2 (first competitive auction)
- Awarded to
- Polenergia / Equinor
- Basis
- integrated tender
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
JV entry · 2019-12
Polenergia → Equinor 50%
- Stake
- 50%
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2019-12
- Project stage
- early development
Equinor completed the acquisition of 50% of Polenergia Baltyk I S.A. (MFW Bałtyk I, up to 1,560 MW) on 10 December 2019, exercising an option granted in the May 2018 agreement covering Baltyk 2 and 3. The option had been included in the original 2018 deal; Equinor exercised it in late 2019. Financial terms NOT publicly disclosed. Project was at early development stage at closing: location permit in place but no environmental decision. Environmental decision secured April 2025. CfD awarded in Poland's first Phase II offshore auction December 2025 (PLN 492.32/MWh, 25-year). First power expected by December 2032. PLN/EUR ~0.235 in December 2019.
Evidence
- equinor.com — Equinor strengthens its position in Polish offshore wind market ↗ 2019-12 ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — Equinor Completes Polish Offshore Wind Trifecta ↗ 2019-12 ◆ held
- windtech-international.com — Windtech International - Equinor completes acquisition of a 50 % interest in Polish offshore wind farm ↗ 2019-12 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2032, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
1,560 MW contracted — tender award
● Tender award · Poland offshore CfD Phase 2 (first competitive auction)
Price492.32 PLN/MWh ·Capacity1,560 MWAwardedDec 2025Term25 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2032
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
HVDC systemBaltyk I HVDC (Offshore)·1560 MW · ±320 kV · needed, expected 2035
HVDC systemBaltyk I HVDC (Onshore — Krzemienica)·1560 MW · ±320 kV · needed, expected 2035
Export & onshore
Export cableBaltyk I Export Cable·HVDC subsea · planned · to Krzemienica, Redzikowo municipality
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
6/15 fields verified · rests on 9 sources (5 primary) · ◆ 5 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[1]
Energy Regulatory Office (URE), Poland2025-12-19◆ Offshore: First auction for offshore win…
“MFW Baltyk I S.A. - Baltyk I Offshore Wind Farm, with an installed electrical capacity of 1,560 MW. [...] Within the winning bids, the minimum offered price amounted to PLN 476.88 per MWh, while the h…”
supportsTotal capacity
Operator2
[3]
Polenergia2025-04-28◆ Equinor and Polenergia Secure Final Envi…
“Environmental decision obtained from Regional Director for Environmental Protection (RDOS) in Gdansk on April 28, 2025. Permit for installation and maintenance of offshore cables already obtained. Gri…”
supportsConsentStatusConnection pointDistance from shoreConsent applied
[4]
Baltyk123 (Equinor/Polenergia project site)2025◆ Bałtyk 1 with an application for prequal…
“Located on the Central Bank, about 81 kilometers from the coast. Up to 104 wind turbines. Legally valid environmental decision, a permit for the construction and use of artificial islands, structures …”
supportsTurbinesDistance from shore
Auction results1
[11]
Norton Rose Fulbright2026-06-22◆ pl-phase2-auction-2025-pl-owa
Poland Offshore Wind Act CfD: PLN 60,000/MW security, first power within 7 years of decision/auction-close
supportsTender award · Poland offshore CfD Phase 2 (first competitive auction)
Trade press5
[6]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-12-19◆ Poland Awards 3.4+ GW of Offshore Wind C…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCOD historyTotal capacityMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[7]
Windtech International2025-12
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsownerCommercial operation
[8]
[9]
[10]