Ecowende (Hollandse Kust West Site VI)

Won via competitive tender with ecology as key assessment criterion.

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2026
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈97% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
20%40%60%80%100% 2026: 86.7% (conditional on completion) 2027: 13.3% (conditional on completion)2026now87%2027 Developer-announced COD: 2026 — in line with Hafrok’s expected year ANNOUNCED = EXPECTED 2026developer cod guidance2022-12 → 2026-07: the developer guided 2026 in 6 statements — sources [4] [5] [6] [7] [10] [13] — click for the sources2026-072026 · held since 2022-12 (×6) [4,5,6,7,10,13]
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
2026 (expected)86.7%
202713.3%
Developer COD guidance, by the date it was stated
StatedAnnounced COD
2026-07-062026 (held since 2022-12-15, 6 statements)
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in 2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2027; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026, the slower quarter not until 2028.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2026, likely range 2026–2028 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈97%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2023’24’25’26Developer-announced COD: 2026 announced COD 2026View the source for Final investment decisionFinal investment decision 2022 View the source for Consent grantedConsent granted 15 Dec 2022 Hollandse Kust (west) Sites VI & VII — awarded to Ecowende (Shell + Eneco; later Chubu)Hollandse Kust (west) Sites VI & VII Dec 2022 · auction recordView the source for Offshore constructionOffshore construction Sep 2025 Commercial operation 2026 ·Hafrok expectedView the source for First powerFirst power Jul 2026 Hollandse Kust (west) Sites VI & VII — awarded to Ecowende (Shell + Eneco; later Chubu) 2022-12 ORIGINATIONEneco → Chubu Electric Power — 30% · closed 2024-05 2024-02 JV ENTRYTODAYShell — 60% today · operator Shell Shell 60%Eneco — 10% today · partner Eneco Eneco 10%Chubu Electric Power — 30% today · investor Chubu Electric Power Chubu Electric Power 30%Hollandse Kust (west) Sites VI & VII — awarded to Ecowende (Shell + Eneco; later Chubu) Eneco → Chubu Electric Power — 30% · closed 2024-05 30%
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2026, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above

Revenue & offtake the regime the project was built under

Offtake regime: Zero-subsidy (ecology-criteria tender, merchant / PPA)
A built project sells its power under the contract or support regime it was financed with; it is not expected to bid into new government offtake rounds. Where the record does not yet name that regime, the row says so rather than guessing.

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Satellite installation tracker
counted from satellite radar images · a structure standing in the sea on a given date, not a turbine producing power · a guide, not a sourced fact
Installation · counted from satellite
Foundations52 of 52100% · first seen 2025-12-05 · 1 more than the record expects — a met mast, a platform not on the register, or a survey artefact
Turbines37 of 5271% · first seen 2023-09-18
Latest count2026-08-30from 551 satellite passes · 1 substation platform left out so the counts compare with the turbine number · anything first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed
Hafrok counts foundations and turbines from satellite radar images (≈): a structure is counted once it is seen standing in the sea, which is not the same as producing power. A structure first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed, because on a single image a freshly set foundation and a ship holding position look alike. Substation platforms are left out so the counts compare with the number of turbines. Rows marked with a dot (·) come from Hafrok’s own registers; a supplier or contract appears only where a source states it — everything else reads “not recorded”, never guessed.
Structures standing over time · count
strong line = confirmed · light line = seen in the last 60 days, not yet confirmed · the chart counts every structure (52 turbines + 1 platform); the table counts turbines only
foundationsturbines up (a substation top being set in place counts here too)
204053 planned (turbines and platforms)latest count 2026-08-30foundations — running total, confirmedfoundations — running total, seen in the last 60 days and not yet confirmedSep 2023 — 2 this month · 2 in totalDec 2025 — 10 this month · 12 in totalJan 2026 — 12 this month · 24 in totalFeb 2026 — 9 this month · 33 in totalMar 2026 — 15 this month · 48 in totalApr 2026 — 6 this month · 54 in totalMay 2026 — 0 this month · 54 in totalJun 2026 — 0 this month · 54 in totalJul 2026 — 0 this month · 54 in totalAug 2026 — 0 this month · 54 in totalturbines up — running total, confirmedturbines up — running total, seen in the last 60 days and not yet confirmedSep 2023 — 1 this month · 1 in totalDec 2025 — 0 this month · 1 in totalJan 2026 — 0 this month · 1 in totalFeb 2026 — 0 this month · 1 in totalMar 2026 — 0 this month · 1 in totalApr 2026 — 0 this month · 1 in totalMay 2026 — 17 this month · 18 in totalJun 2026 — 7 this month · 25 in totalJul 2026 — 8 this month · 33 in totalAug 2026 — 5 this month · 38 in total54 foundations38 turbines upSep 2023Jan 2026Mar 2026May 2026Jul 2026Boreas · FoundationsBoreas · Turbines
Satellite image
Image taken2026-09-05Copernicus Sentinel-1 radar satellite, southbound pass
Farm covered100%the whole farm lies inside the image
Structures ringed54 confirmed · 0 not yet confirmedas counted on 2026-08-30 · the image is newer than the count, so a bright spot without a ring may be a structure not yet counted
Construction ports
PortBuss Terminal Eemshaven ·turbines · quay 5000 m · crane 50 t · draft 14 m
Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA and by Microsoft Planetary Computer.
Latest satellite radar image · 2026-09-05
a radar picture, not a photograph: the sea is dark, steel is bright · black is beyond the edge of the image
confirmed structure (54)seen recently, not yet confirmed (0)probably a substation platform (a larger structure than a turbine; the register above has the facts)farm boundary
Satellite radar image over Ecowende (Hollandse Kust West Site VI), 2026-09-05
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
Offshore substationHollandse Kust (west Alpha)·owner TenneT

Sources & verification

16/19 fields verified · rests on 13 sources (7 primary) · ◆ 11 documents held
VerifiedModelledSourcedInferredConventionUnverifiedNo source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[1]
RVO (Netherlands Enterprise Agency)2024-08◆ RVO Hollandse Kust West VI & VII results
“On 15 December 2022, Minister for Climate and Energy Rob Jetten announced that the permit for Wind Farm Site VI of the Hollandse Kust (west) Wind Farm Zone has been awarded to Ecowende, a consortium o…”
supportsConsentMechanismDetailConsent granted
[3]
RVO (Netherlands Enterprise Agency)2021-06◆ Hollandse Kust (west) Wind Farm Zone - P…
“Hollandse Kust (west) Wind Farm Zone (HKWWFZ) is located approximately 28.6 nautical miles (53 km) off the west coast of the Netherlands. [...] The water depth generally increases from the north-east …”
supportsDistance from shoreCoordinates
Operator4
[2]
Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy (Netherlands)2021-11-26◆ Kavelbesluit VI windenergiegebied Hollan…
“Het windpark wordt aangesloten op het TenneT-platform Hollandse Kust (west Alpha)...”
supportsTotal capacityStatusConnection point
[4]
Eneco2022-12-15◆ Shell and Eneco win tender for offshore …
“Shell and Eneco have already taken the final investment decision for this wind farm. [...] approximately 53 kilometers off the Dutch coast near IJmuiden [...] 760 MW [...] Expected to meet approximate…”
supportsFinal investment decision
[9]
Ecowende2024-12-12◆ Ecowende chooses Buss Ports for state-of…
“Buss Terminal Eemshaven [...] Storage and handling of wind turbine components [...] managing 52 Vestas V236 turbine sets with nacelles, blades, and towers [...] operating across 200,000+ square meters…”
supportsturbines
[13]
Eneco2026-07-06◆ First power ecowendes offshore wind farm…
“Ecowende’s wind farm Hollandse Kust West, one of the most ecological offshore wind farms in the world, is now connected to TenneT’s offshore grid and has produced its first carbon-free energy. The win…”
supportsFirst powerCommercial operationCOD history
OEM1
[5]
Vestas2023-12-22◆ Vestas secures a firm order for Ecowende…
“Vestas secures a firm order for Ecowende's Hollandse Kust West offshore wind farm in the Netherlands [...] 52 V236-15.0 MW wind turbines [...] 760 MW [...] turbine installation expected to begin Q2 20…”
supportsCommercial operationTurbinesModelUnit capacity
Trade press6
[6]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-09-25◆ Offshore Construction Starts on Ecowende…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsOffshore construction
[7]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-12-05◆ First Monopile In at ‘Most Ecological Of…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsFoundationBoreas — foundation installation
[8]
offshoreWIND.biz2024-05-09◆ Japan's Chubu Completes Ecowende Buy-In …
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperatorinvestorpartner
[10]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-06-01◆ First Wind Turbine Installed at Hollands…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCommercial operationBoreas — turbine installation
[11]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
[12]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed