KF Wind (Mainstream / Ocean Winds)
Located off Ulsan coast. Ocean Winds (EDPR / Engie JV) and Mainstream Renewable Power (Actis) co-develop.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Ocean Winds — 66.7% ◇
Mainstream Renewable Power — 33.3% ◇Location
South KoreaSea of Japan (East Sea)
Technology
Capacity
750 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
Floating ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed ◇
Water depth
162–309 m ≈
Wind speed
8.3 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Other ◇
Grid
Secured · 2024-10 ◇
Connection
KEPCO Shinonsan onshore station, Ulsan ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2031 ○
COD · Hafrok
2035 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2035
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2031; Hafrok expects 2035 — 4 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈54%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2034 | 14.1% |
| 2035 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2036 | 22.7% |
| 2037 | 14.6% |
| 2038 | 8.7% |
| 2039 | 5.1% |
| 2040 | 3.1% |
| 2041 | 1.8% |
| 2042 | 1.1% |
| 2043 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (floating, in developing offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2035 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: KR-OFFSHORE-2026H2
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2032 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2035, likely range 2035–2041 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈54%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
JV formation · 2022-01
Ocean Winds · Aker Offshore Wind stake not disclosed
- Stake
- not disclosed
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2022-01
- Project stage
- early development
Korea Floating Wind (KFW) was established as a joint venture between Ocean Winds (66.7%) and Aker Offshore Wind (33.3%) to develop floating offshore wind projects off the coast of Ulsan, South Korea. The JV reached a key milestone in January 2022 when it was awarded its first Electric Business Licence (EBL) for 870 MW (covering the East Blue Power phase, 375 MW, and the KF Wind phase, 750 MW net; EBL covers combined 1,125 MW gross capacity). A second EBL for the 450 MW KF Wind (net 450 MW) was obtained in 2022. Ocean Winds is a 50/50 JV between EDP Renewables and Engie, formed in 2019. Aker Offshore Wind is part of the Aker group (listed on Oslo Bors). Aker Offshore Wind subsequently merged into Mainstream Renewable Power in August 2022 (Aker Horizons holding ~58.4%), meaning Mainstream inherited Aker Offshore Wind's 33.3% KFW stake. This record covers the KF Wind (Mainstream / Ocean Winds) project only (750 MW per FK). The combined EBL covers 1,125 MW but this record is scoped to KF Wind's 750 MW.
Evidence
- mainstreamrp.com — Ocean Winds and Aker Offshore Wind reach key electric business license milestone for floating offshore wind project in South Korea - Mainstream Renewable Holdings AS ↗ 2022-01 ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — Ocean Winds, Aker Offshore Wind Move Forward with Floating Project in Korea ↗ 2022-01 ◆ held
- oceanwinds.com — Korea Floating Wind ↗ 2022-01 ◆ held
- mainstreamrp.com — KF Wind - Mainstream Renewable Holdings AS ↗ ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. Ownership lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
Transmission Service Agreement (TSA) secured with KEPCO (October 2024). No offtake/auction award identified. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
South Korea 2026 H2 Offshore Wind Auction ◇
MCEE's ten-year roadmap (2026-06-30) schedules 1.7-3.0 GW for 2026 H2 — fixed 1.3-2.0 GW, floating 0.4-1.0 GW. No 공고 date published as of 2026-08-26; the ministry began collecting military-operability consultation requests for H2 bidders from April 2026.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2031
Sources & verification
0/12 fields verified · rests on 7 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator1
[2]
Mainstream Renewable Power2024-10-10◆ Mainstream Renewable Power and Ocean Win…
“It is a joint venture company owned by Ocean Winds (66.7 percent) and Mainstream Renewable Power (33.3 percent).”
supportsoperatorownerTotal capacityMechanismDetail+3 more
Auction pipeline1
[8]
기후에너지환경부 (MCEE), via 대한민국 정책브리핑 (korea.kr)2026-06-30◆ kr-mcee-roadmap-2026
Roadmap table, 2026 H2 column: 경쟁입찰 물량 1.7~3.0 GW (고정식 1.3~2.0, 부유식 0.4~1.0). "RPS 제도 일몰('27.1.1.)에 따라 '27년 이후 입찰에 대한 세부 운영 방식 및 선정 프로세스 구체화 필요 ('26년 하반기 중)."
supportsSouth Korea 2026 H2 Offshore Wind Auction
Trade press4
[4]
Offshore Magazine2024-08-30
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentSite rights
[5]
[6]
[7]
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown◆ Mainstream Renewable Power and Ocean Win…
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacityFoundationWater depthCoordinates