Bandibuli Floating Wind Farm (Equinor Firefly)
Also known as Firefly. Equinor leads; Jeonnam province context but Ulsan-area project. Co-located with Ulsan floating wind cluster.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Equinor — 100% ◇Location
South KoreaSea of Japan (East Sea)
Technology
Capacity
750 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
Floating ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed ◇
Water depth
178–415 m ≈
Wind speed
8.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Certificate ◇
Grid
Secured · 2024-10 ◇
Connection
KEPCO Ulju-gun substation, Ulsan (345 kV) ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2030 ○
COD · Hafrok
2035 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2035
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2030; Hafrok expects 2035 — 5 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈59%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2034 | 14.1% |
| 2035 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2036 | 22.7% |
| 2037 | 14.6% |
| 2038 | 8.7% |
| 2039 | 5.1% |
| 2040 | 3.1% |
| 2041 | 1.8% |
| 2042 | 1.1% |
| 2043 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (floating, in developing offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2035 is not credible.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2035, likely range 2035–2041 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈59%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
750 MW contracted — utility PPA
● Utility PPA · South Korea 2024 Wind Fixed-Price Auction — fixed-bottom + floating offshore
Priceprice undisclosed ·Capacity750 MWAwardedDec 2024Term20 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030
Sources & verification
0/12 fields verified · rests on 9 sources · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator1
[4]
Equinor Korea2024-10◆ Five Ulsan Floating Offshore Wind Power …
“Five developers have signed a contract with Korea Electric Power Corporation (hereinafter referred to as KEPCO) for the use of the world's largest 6GW floating offshore wind power transmission electri…”
supportsStatusConnection point
Auction results1
[11]
Shin and Kim2026-06-22◆ kr-rps-wind-2024-kr-rps-terms
Korea RPS fixed-price offshore: completion-period bands 60/72/78 months; REC-price cut / cancellation on miss
supportsUtility PPA · South Korea 2024 Wind Fixed-Price Auction — fixed-bottom + floating offshore
Trade press6
[2]
Offshore Wind (Navingo)2024-12◆ South Korea Awards Nearly 1.9 GW of Offs…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityMechanismDetail
[5]
Tethys (PNNL)2026-06◆ Firefly/Bandibuli Floating Wind Farm | T…
“EBL Status: Approved in December 2021. EIA Status: Approved July 2024. The Ministry of Environment completed its review following a two-year evaluation process. Permitting/Consent Status: Planning.”
supportsConsentSite rights
[7]
reNEWS2025-09
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperator
[8]
[9]
[10]
Unverified import1
[1]