Codling Wind Park
Located 13-22 km off Wicklow coast. Will deliver over 26% of Ireland's 2030 grid-connected offshore wind target.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
EDF Renewables — 50% ◆FOFred. Olsen Seawind — 50% ◆
Location
IrelandIrish Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,300 MW ◆
Turbines
75 ◇
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
ORESS 1 (Ireland's first offshore auction) · 2023 ·
Water depth
10–25 m ≈
Distance from shore
13 km ◇
Wind speed
9.8 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · ORESS 1 · €89.82/MWh ◆
Grid
Offered ◇
Connection
EirGrid Full Connection Offer (FCO) issued; connection point at … ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2030 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈79%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity pull the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 3.9% |
| 2030 (expected) | 50.2% |
| 2031 | 29.5% |
| 2032 | 10.6% |
| 2033 | 3.8% |
| 2034 | 1.4% |
| 2035 | 0.6% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2031; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029, the slower quarter not until 2031.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2029–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈79%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2023-06
ORESS 1 (Ireland's first offshore auction)
- Awarded to
- Fred. Olsen Seawind + EDF Renewables
- Basis
- integrated tender
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
JV entry · 2020-02
Hazel Shore (Johnny Ronan / Ronan Group) → EDF Renewables 50%
- Stake
- 50%
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2020-02
- Project stage
- early development
EDF Renewables (through EDF Renewables Ireland, a subsidiary of EDF Group) acquired a 50% stake in the Codling offshore wind project from Hazel Shore, a vehicle linked to Irish property developer Johnny Ronan / Ronan Group. The transaction was announced 11 February 2020 and marked EDF Group's entry into the Irish market. Fred. Olsen Seawind (formerly Fred. Olsen Renewables Ltd) had been involved in the Codling site since 1999 and retained its 50% interest, creating a 50/50 JV structure: Fred. Olsen Seawind (50%) / EDF Renewables (50%). Deal value was not disclosed. Project was at very early development stage at deal time — no foreshore licence or planning consent had been obtained. At 1,300 MW the Codling project is Ireland's largest proposed offshore wind farm. The project was later awarded a CfD in Ireland's first ORESS-1 offshore wind auction in May 2023.
Evidence
- edf.fr — The EDF Group moves into Ireland by acquiring 50% of the Codling offshore wind project - 2020/02/11 | Groupe EDF ↗ 2020-02 ◆ held
- offshoreWIND.biz — EDF Takes 50% Stake in 1GW Irish Offshore Wind Farm ↗ 2020-02 ◆ held
- edfenergy.com — Acquired Codling offshore wind farm project in Ireland | EDF ↗ 2020-02 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030
Sources & verification
4/13 fields verified · rests on 10 sources (4 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[12]
Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications (DECC)2024◆ 5612b93e F616 4881 8194 250656f0cea1
“Issue Full Phase 1 Connection Offers (including merchant projects) Q4 2024.”
supportsStatusConnection point
Operator3
[5]
EirGrid2023-06-14◆ ORESS 1 Final Auction Results (OR1FAR)
"Codling Wind Park Limited Codling Wind Park 1,300" [MW] listed as a Successful Applicant (Table 3); "Offshore Wind Average Price €86.05/MWh" (weighted average of all successful offers, Table 2).
supportsTotal capacity
[7]
An Coimisiún Pleanála2024-09-06◆ 320768 | An Coimisiún Pleanála -
“Case OA29N.320768 for Codling Wind Park, lodged 06/09/2024; case due to be decided by 01/04/2025; as of June 2026 remains undecided (developers requested to submit revised cumulative impact assessment…”
supportsConsentConsent applied
[9]
Bonheur ASA2023-08◆ Bonheur Q2 2023 Report Updated
"Codling Wind Park Ltd. (Ireland) has on 11th May 2023, received information on the final auction results from the auction administrator (Eirgrid) to the effect that Codling Wind Park Ltd. was a succe…
supportsoperatordeveloperMechanismStrike / priceDetail
Trade press5
[11]
Codling Wind Park (operator site)2024
"Subject to all necessary permits and consents being received, Codling Wind Park could begin construction in 2027. Construction is expected to take two to three years to complete." [Implies COD ~2029-…
supportsCommercial operation
[13]
[14]
[15]
[16]
Unverified import1
[1]