Hafrok

Nordsøen Midt

Located in the Danish North Sea near Hvide Sande, approximately 20 km offshore.

Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Vattenfall — 100% ◆
Location
Denmark
North Sea
Verification
7/12 fields verified
7 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆verified≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 1,000 MW ◆
Turbines —
Foundation —
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴
Origination Nordsøen Midt (North Sea Mid) — re-tendered CfD round · 2026 ·
Water depth 24–29 m ≈ Distance from shore 20 km ◆ Wind speed 10.5 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake CfD · 504 DKK/MWh ◆ Grid No agreement ◇ Connection Energinet — grid connection agreement required … ◇
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · announced 2032 ◆
COD · Hafrok 2033 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2033
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2032; Hafrok expects 2033 — 1 year later.
Chance of delivery
≈74% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; its size and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
20%40%60%80%100% 2032: 14.1% (conditional on completion) 2033: 28.0% (conditional on completion) 2034: 22.7% (conditional on completion) 2035: 14.6% (conditional on completion) 2036: 8.7% (conditional on completion) 2037: 5.1% (conditional on completion) 2038: 3.1% (conditional on completion) 2039: 1.8% (conditional on completion) 2040: 1.1% (conditional on completion) 2041: 0.7% (conditional on completion)2026now202820302032203328%EXPECTED2034203620382040 Developer-announced COD: 2032 ANNOUNCED 2032developer cod guidance2026-04 → 2026-08: the developer guided 2032 in 3 statements — sources [1] [8] — click for the sources2026-082032 · held since 2026-04 (×3) [1,8]
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
203214.1%
2033 (expected)28.0%
203422.7%
203514.6%
20368.7%
20375.1%
20383.1%
20391.8%
20401.1%
20410.7%
Developer COD guidance, by the date it was stated
StatedAnnounced COD
2026-08-042032 (held since 2026-04-15, 3 statements)
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.
2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2033 is not credible.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈74%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2027’28’29’30’31’32’33Developer-announced COD: 2032 announced COD 2032Nordsøen Midt (North Sea Mid) — re-tendered CfD round — awarded to Vattenfall Vindkraft A/S (on behalf of a company yet to be established)Nordsøen Midt (North Sea Mid) — re-tendered CfD round Aug 2026 · auction recordCommercial operation 2033 ·Hafrok expectedNordsøen Midt (North Sea Mid) — re-tendered CfD round — awarded to Vattenfall Vindkraft A/S (on behalf of a company yet to be established) 2026-08 ORIGINATIONTODAYVattenfall — 100% today · sponsor Vattenfall Vattenfall 100%Nordsøen Midt (North Sea Mid) — re-tendered CfD round — awarded to Vattenfall Vindkraft A/S (on behalf of a company yet to be established)
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2032, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above

Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day

1,000 MW contracted — tender award
● Tender award · Nordsøen Midt (North Sea Mid) — re-tendered CfD round
Price504 DKK/MWh ·Capacity1,000 MWAwardedAug 2026
Term20 yrs

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2032

Sources & verification

7/12 fields verified · rests on 7 sources (3 primary) · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[1]
Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen)2025-11◆ DEA opens three new CfD offshore tenders…
“North Sea Mid: minimum 1 GW ... Must be completed by the end of 2032 ... In total a payment cap of DKK 55.2 billion including VAT has been set for the state ... The tenders will further enable the win…”
supportsConsentCommercial operationTotal capacity
source ↗
[8]
Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen)2026-08-04◆ Danmark faar to nye havvindmoelleparker …
“Award, 4 Aug 2026: "Selskaberne bød henholdsvis 504 kroner per megawatt-time for 'Nordsøen Midt' og 542 kroner per megawatt-time for 'Hesselø', hvilket var de laveste bud på de respektive parker. På '…”
supportssponsorCOD historyMechanismStrike / priceDetail+1 more
source ↗
Operator1
[10]
Vattenfall2026-08-04◆ Vattenfall awarded hesselo and north sea…
“The North Sea I Mid Offshore Wind Project is located in the North Sea, approximately 20 km off the coast near Hvide Sande, with a minimum capacity of 1,000 MW. ... Grid connection has been reserved fo…”
supportsDistance from shore
source ↗
Trade press4
[2]
Kromann Reumert (legal commentary, primary tender documentation)2025-11
“Nordsøen Midt is ... offered with a minimum capacity of 1 GW with grid connection possibility of at least 1 GW per area ... Developers must obtain a grid connection agreement with Energinet before est…”
supportsTotal capacityStatusConnection point
source ↗
[4]
Offshore Wind Biz2025-11-20
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsBackground
source ↗
[6]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
source ↗
[7]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
source ↗