Hesselø
Original location had challenging geotechnical conditions (soft clay formations in upper 20-30m of seabed).
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Vattenfall — 100% ◆Location
DenmarkKattegat
Technology
Capacity
800 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Hesselø (Kattegat) — re-tendered CfD round · 2026 ·
Water depth
20–45 m ◇
Distance from shore
30 km ◇
Wind speed
10.0 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · 542 DKK/MWh ◆
Grid
No agreement ◇
Connection
Export cable to Pårup (Zealand); landfall at Gilbjerg Hoved … ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2032 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2033 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2033
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2032; Hafrok expects 2033 — 1 year later.
Chance of delivery
≈76%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; its size and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2032 | 14.1% |
| 2033 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2034 | 22.7% |
| 2035 | 14.6% |
| 2036 | 8.7% |
| 2037 | 5.1% |
| 2038 | 3.1% |
| 2039 | 1.8% |
| 2040 | 1.1% |
| 2041 | 0.7% |
| Stated | Announced COD |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 2032 (held since 2026-04-15, 3 statements) |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2033 is not credible.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈76%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2026-08
Hesselø (Kattegat) — re-tendered CfD round
- Awarded to
- Vattenfall Vindkraft Offshore Wind DK P/S (Vattenfall Vindkraft A/S subsidiary)
- Basis
- integrated tender
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2032, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
800 MW contracted — tender award
● Tender award · Hesselø (Kattegat) — re-tendered CfD round
Price542 DKK/MWh ·Capacity800 MWAwardedAug 2026Term20 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2032
Construction ports
PortPort of Grenaa ◇·quay 350 m
Sources & verification
3/14 fields verified · rests on 8 sources (4 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator3
[1]
Energistyrelsen (Danish Energy Agency)2025-11-20◆ DEA opens three new CfD offshore tenders…
“Minimum capacity of at least 800 MW ... must be completed by the end of 2032 ... two-sided capability-based contract for difference (CfD) ... state payment cap of DKK 27.4 billion (for Hesselø) ... na…”
supportsConsentCommercial operationTotal capacityMechanismDetail
[5]
Energistyrelsen (Danish Energy Agency)2026-06-16◆ News about Hesselø OWF
“27-06-2022: Location moved south to reduce establishment risks ... 26-06-2021: Tender suspended due to soft clay formations discovered especially the upper 20-30 m below the seabed ... 23-10-2020: Gil…”
supportsBackground
[8]
Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen)2026-08-04◆ Danmark faar to nye havvindmoelleparker …
“Award, 4 Aug 2026: "Selskaberne bød henholdsvis 504 kroner per megawatt-time for 'Nordsøen Midt' og 542 kroner per megawatt-time for 'Hesselø', hvilket var de laveste bud på de respektive parker. ... …”
supportssponsorCOD historyMechanismStrike / priceDetail+1 more
Trade press5
[2]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-11-20
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
[3]
Windtech International2026-05-22
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsStatus note
[4]
Port of Grenaa2026-06-16◆ Hesselø offshore windfarm | Port of Gren…
“The wind farm is situated in the Kattegat, approximately 31 nm (52 km) from Port of Grenaa ... Installed capacity: 800-1,000 MW grid connected + 200 MW PTX ... Individual turbine size: 15-22 MW ... Nu…”
supportsStatusConnection pointWater depthDistance from shoreport
[6]
[7]