Hafrok

Gennaker

Largest offshore wind farm in German Baltic Sea. Located 15 km north of Fischland-Darß-Zingst. Monopile manufacturing by EEW SPC in Rostock (40 km from site).

Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Skyborn Renewables — 100% ◆
Location
Germany
Baltic Sea
Verification
6/17 fields verified
9 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆verified≈modelled◇sourced·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 976.5 MW ◆ Turbines 63 × 15.5 MW ◇ Model Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD ◇ Foundation Monopile ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held 2025-12 ◆ Water depth 15–19 m ≈ Distance from shore 15 km ◇ Wind speed 10.0 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake PPA ◆ Grid Secured · 2026-01 ◆ Connection 50Hertz OST-6-1. Two offshore substations (OSS Darß and OSS … ◆
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · announced 2028 ◆
COD · Hafrok 2028 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2028
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈86% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; its size and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2027: 3.9% (conditional on completion) 2028: 50.2% (conditional on completion) 2029: 29.5% (conditional on completion) 2030: 10.6% (conditional on completion) 2031: 3.8% (conditional on completion) 2032: 1.4% (conditional on completion) 2033: 0.6% (conditional on completion)2026now2027202850%20292030203120322033 Developer-announced COD: 2028 — in line with Hafrok’s expected year ANNOUNCED = EXPECTED 2028
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
20273.9%
2028 (expected)50.2%
202929.5%
203010.6%
20313.8%
20321.4%
20330.6%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in 2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2029; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2027, the slower quarter not until 2030.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2028, likely range 2027–2030 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈86%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

2026’27’28Developer-announced COD: 2028 announced COD 2028View the source for Consent grantedConsent granted Dec 2025 ◆Commercial operation 2028 ·Hafrok expected
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2028

Sources & verification

6/17 fields verified · rests on 9 sources (5 primary) · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator4
[2]
Skyborn Renewables2025-12-19◆ Gennaker Construction And Operations Per…
“Skyborn Renewables' (Skyborn) permit application for its 976.5 MW Gennaker offshore wind farm ... has been approved on 16 December by the State Office for Agriculture and Environment in Stralsund, Wes…”
supportsConsentCommercial operationSite rightsTotal capacityConsent granted
source ↗archive ↗
[3]
Offshore Wind Biz2026-01-28◆ Skyborn, 50Hertz Sign Agreement for Genn…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsStatusConnection point
source ↗archive ↗
[4]
Offshore Wind Biz2026-04-27◆ EIB Greenlights EUR 700 Million for Genn…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperatorTotal capacity
source ↗archive ↗
[9]
Skyborn Renewables2026-06-19
“Amazon and Skyborn Renewables sign 600 MW PPA for Gennaker — "This agreement with Amazon marks a defining milestone for Gennaker and Skyborn" (Adam Thomsen, Chief Development Officer, Skyborn Renewabl…”
supportsMechanismDetail
source ↗
Trade press4
[6]
Power Technology2025
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTurbinesModelUnit capacityTotal capacityFoundation+1 more
source ↗
[7]
4C Offshore2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
source ↗
[8]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
source ↗
[12]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
source ↗
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTurbinesModelUnit capacityTotal capacityFoundation+3 more
source ↗