Planta Piloto Petrobras

Brazil's first licensed offshore wind project. Deep water (>100m) floating. Off São João da Barra, northern RJ coast. Pre-FID + floating = min 2029.

Status

Early Developmentlifecycle stage

ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook

Ownership

Petrobras — 100% ◆

Location

Brazil

Southwest Atlantic

Verification

1/11 fields verified

7 sources · ◆ 4 documents held

◆verified≈modelled◇sourced·derived

open the source register →

Technology

Capacity 18 MW ◇ Turbines 1 × 18 MW ◇

Foundation —

Site & conditions

Site rights Application filed 2024 ◇ Water depth 17–17 m ≈ Wind speed 8.7 m/s @ 150 m ≈

Revenue & grid

Offtake —

Grid —

Schedule

FID Not taken

COD · Hafrok 2033 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2033

expected year of commercial operation

Chance of delivery

≈50% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation

Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a market with no delivery record yet, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2032	14.1%
2033 (expected)	28.0%
2034	22.7%
2035	14.6%
2036	8.7%
2037	5.1%
2038	3.1%
2039	1.8%
2040	1.1%
2041	0.7%

How Hafrok got this date

No dated milestone yet

Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in new offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.

Earliest credible date

Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2033 is not credible.

Merchant project — financing counted from today

The project has no offtake contract yet. This project's route offers no support scheme: it has to sign a power contract and take a financing decision on its own, and Hafrok counts that from today (2026 Q3) rather than from a tender it cannot enter. The permits are not affected; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q3), then build time on top gives 2031 Q3. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2033, likely range 2033–2038 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈50%, which rates it Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026).

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open

The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.