Phu Cuong Soc Trang Phase 1
Soc Trang Province, Mekong Delta. Mainstream 70% / Phu Cuong 30%. Pioneer project in shallow southern Vietnam.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Mainstream Renewable Power — 70% ◆PCPhu Cuong Group — 30% ◆
Location
VietnamSouth China Sea
Technology
Capacity
200 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed 2021-11 ◇
Water depth
1–3 m ≈
Wind speed
6.7 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Applied · 2021-11 ◇
Connection
EVN grid connection substation (onshore) ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2033 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2033
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈50%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a market with no delivery record yet, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2032 | 14.1% |
| 2033 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2034 | 22.7% |
| 2035 | 14.6% |
| 2036 | 8.7% |
| 2037 | 5.1% |
| 2038 | 3.1% |
| 2039 | 1.8% |
| 2040 | 1.1% |
| 2041 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in new offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2033 is not credible.3
Merchant project — financing counted from today
The project has no offtake contract yet. This project's route offers no support scheme: it has to sign a power contract and take a financing decision on its own, and Hafrok counts that from today (
2026 Q3) rather than from a tender it cannot enter. The permits are not affected; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q3), then build time on top gives 2031 Q3. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2033, likely range 2033–2038 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈50%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
JV formation · 2017-Q1
Mainstream Renewable Power · Phu Cuong Group stake not disclosed
- Stake
- not disclosed
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2017-Q1
- Closed
- 2021-Q4
- Project stage
- early development
Mainstream Renewable Power and the Phu Cuong Group (a Vietnamese construction and real estate conglomerate) entered a joint venture agreement in 2017 to co-develop the 1.4 GW Phu Cuong Soc Trang Offshore Wind Farm (located off the southern coast of Soc Trang Province, Vietnam). Mainstream holds a 70% stake; Phu Cuong Group holds 30%. The project is divided into Phase 1 (200 MW) and Phase 2 (~1.2 GW, see companion record for Phu Cuong Soc Trang Phase 2). In November 2021, Phase 1 (200 MW) received its Decision on Investment and Investment Registration Certificate (IRC) from Soc Trang Province — Vietnam's provincial investment approval. Mainstream's overall stake in Vietnam was carried through the Aker Horizons/Mitsui corporate restructuring of 2021–2022.
Evidence
- offshoreWIND.biz — 1.4 GW Vietnamese Offshore Wind Project Nears Financial Close ↗ 2017-Q1 ◆ held
- mainstreamrp.com — Vietnam province approves investment for flagship offshore wind farm - Mainstream Renewable Holdings AS ↗ 2017-Q1 ◆ held
- prnewswire.com — Mainstream Renewable Power secures investment decision from Provincial Government for flagship offshore wind project in Vietnam ↗ 2017-Q1 ◆ held
- mainstreamrp.com — Phu Cuong Soc Trang Wind Farm - Mainstream Renewable Holdings AS ↗ 2017-Q1 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). Ownership lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
1/11 fields verified · rests on 6 sources · ◆ 1 document held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator2
[2]
PR Newswire / Mainstream Renewable Power2021-11-12
“Mainstream owning 70% of the asset and the Phu Cuong Group owning the remaining 30%. … 200 MW of capacity set to be delivered in phase 1 … The project is anticipated to reach financial close in 2022, …”
supportsConsentSite rightsTotal capacityStatusConnection point+1 more
[5]
Mainstream Renewable Power2025◆ Phu Cuong Soc Trang Wind Farm - Mainstre…
supportsoperatordeveloper
Trade press3
[6]
[7]
[8]
Unverified import1
[1]