Ninh Thuan 1 - T&T Group
Three phases of 1,000 MW in Thuan Nam, Ninh Thuan. Marubeni has expressed interest in Ørsted's former roles.
Status
On Holdlifecycle stage
FragileHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
TT — 50% ◇
TT Group — 50% ◇
Location
VietnamSouth China Sea
Technology
Capacity
3,000 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Not established we have not found a document granting or refusing rights over this seabed — a gap in our research, not a finding about the project ∅
Water depth
10–24 m ≈
Wind speed
8.5 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2032 ○
COD · Hafrok
—
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
—
on hold — no credible date; the chart shows when a restarted project might complete
The developer's last guidance was 2032 · not treated as a schedule while the project is on hold
Chance of delivery
≈11%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Projects put on hold complete ≈15% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a market with no delivery record yet, a very large build, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet. Only a restart would change that — there is no dated schedule to judge against.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2030 | 20.0% |
| 2031 | 20.0% |
| 2032 | 20.0% |
| 2033 | 20.0% |
| 2034 | 20.0% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
On hold — no dated schedule
The project is recorded as On Hold, so no sequence of milestones can be trusted. Hafrok publishes no expected year; the chart instead spreads the remaining chance of completion over the years a restarted project might finish in.
2
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of On Hold projects that went on to complete — ≈15%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Historically only a minority of projects put on hold returned to delivery — the estimate reflects that. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈11%, which rates it
Fragile on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageOn Hold
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2032
Sources & verification
0/9 fields verified · rests on 4 sources
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Trade press3
[2]
[3]
[4]
Unverified import1
[1]