Ben Tre - Mainstream / AIT
Ben Tre Province. Mainstream 70%. Estimated investment USD 1.4 billion.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Mainstream Renewable Power — 50% ◇ACAIT Corporation — 50% ◇
Location
VietnamSouth China Sea
Technology
Capacity
500 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed 2020 ◇
Water depth
5–19 m ≈
Wind speed
7.1 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2033 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2033
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈48%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a market with no delivery record yet, its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2032 | 14.1% |
| 2033 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2034 | 22.7% |
| 2035 | 14.6% |
| 2036 | 8.7% |
| 2037 | 5.1% |
| 2038 | 3.1% |
| 2039 | 1.8% |
| 2040 | 1.1% |
| 2041 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in new offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2033 is not credible.3
Merchant project — financing counted from today
The project has no offtake contract yet. This project's route offers no support scheme: it has to sign a power contract and take a financing decision on its own, and Hafrok counts that from today (
2026 Q3) rather than from a tender it cannot enter. The permits are not affected; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q3), then build time on top gives 2031 Q3. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2033, likely range 2033–2038 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈48%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
JV formation · 2020-11
Mainstream Renewable Power · Advanced Information Technologies Corporation (AIT) stake not disclosed
- Stake
- not disclosed
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2020-11
- Project stage
- early development
In November 2020, Mainstream Renewable Power (then part of the Aker Horizons group following the May 2021 acquisition; note the JV was signed before the Aker deal closed) and Vietnamese company Advanced Information Technologies Corporation (AIT) signed a Joint Development Agreement to co-develop a 500 MW offshore wind project in Ben Tre province, southern Vietnam. The project had already received its site survey licence and completed a feasibility study. Mainstream's stake in the JV was not disclosed; the announcement described it as a co-development agreement. Mainstream is the international developer providing technology and project development expertise; AIT is a Vietnamese EPC services specialist providing local market access. The project was expected to reach financial close by 2023–24, but Vietnam's policy uncertainty has delayed progress. As of February 2026, project status is uncertain given Vietnam's broader offshore wind policy freeze.
Evidence
- offshoreWIND.biz — Mainstream and AIT to Jointly Develop 500 MW Offshore Wind Farm in Vietnam ↗ 2020-11 ◆ held
- mainstreamrp.com — Agreement with AIT to co-develop 500 MW offshore wind project - Mainstream Renewable Holdings AS ↗ 2020-11 ◆ held
- renewablesnow.com ↗
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). Ownership lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
0/9 fields verified · rests on 7 sources · ◆ 2 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator3
[2]
Mainstream Renewable Power2020-11-04◆ Agreement with AIT to co-develop 500 MW …
“Mainstream Renewable Power ('Mainstream') has signed a Joint Development Agreement with Advanced Information Technologies Corporation ('AIT') to co-develop a 500 MW offshore wind project in Ben Tre pr…”
supportsConsentSite rightsTotal capacityConsent applied
[3]
Mainstream Renewable Power2022-09-27◆ Ben Tre offshore wind project reaches Li…
“Mainstream Renewable Power and AIT Corporation have reached a key milestone in the development of the 500 MW Ben Tre offshore wind project in Vietnam with the installation and commissioning of a LiDAR…”
supportsTotal capacity
[6]
Trade press3
[7]
[8]
[9]
Unverified import1
[1]