Sofia Offshore Wind Farm

Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2026 (expected)	86.7%
2027	13.3%

Developer COD guidance, by the date it was stated
Stated	Announced COD
2021-03-24	2026-Q4
2023-09-04	2026
2025-03-27	2026-H2
2025-11-10	2026-09

How Hafrok got this date

Starting point: the last dated milestone

Construction start in 2021. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.

Typical timing

Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2023; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2022, the slower quarter not until 2024. Dates already in the past are moved up to today — this project has run beyond the typical timing.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2026, likely range 2025–2027 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈98%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Announced COD: held (announced 2026-Q4, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above

Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day

CfD-backed offtake

● CfD · AR3

Price£39.65/MWh ·

Basis2012 real · CPI-indexed

Capacity1,400 MW AwardedSep 2019

Term15 yrs · delivery 2023/24

Money-of-the-day values computed by Hafrok from the United Kingdom CPI index, 2012 real base — actual to 2026-07, then an assumed +2.0%/yr (central-bank target). Cfd terms run 15 years from start of generation in the contracted delivery year.

Contract price over time · £/MWh

solid = actual CPI indexation · dashed = assumed +2.0%/yr

CfD · AR3

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Satellite installation tracker

counted from satellite radar images · a structure standing in the sea on a given date, not a turbine producing power · a guide, not a sourced fact

Installation · counted from satellite

Foundations100 of 100≈100% · first seen 2024-05-22

Turbines100 of 100≈100% · first seen 2024-12-29

Latest count2026-08-29from 498 satellite passes · 1 substation platform left out so the counts compare with the turbine number · anything first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed

Hafrok counts foundations and turbines from satellite radar images (≈): a structure is counted once it is seen standing in the sea, which is not the same as producing power. A structure first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed, because on a single image a freshly set foundation and a ship holding position look alike. Substation platforms are left out so the counts compare with the number of turbines. Rows marked with a dot (·) come from Hafrok’s own registers; a supplier or contract appears only where a source states it — everything else reads “not recorded”, never guessed.

Structures standing over time · count

strong line = confirmed · light line = seen in the last 60 days, not yet confirmed · the chart counts every structure (100 turbines + 1 platform); the table counts turbines only

foundationsturbines up (a substation top being set in place counts here too)

Installation contracts

FoundationsAeolus◇Van Oord · foundation and turbine installation vessel · 2024-05 → 2025-07 · Completed TurbinesWind Peak◇Cadeler · foundation and turbine installation vessel · 2025-03 → 2026-06-10 · Completed Offshore substationSleipnir◇Heerema · heavy-lift vessel · 2024-08 → 2024-08 · Completed

Satellite image

Image taken2026-09-07≈Copernicus Sentinel-1 radar satellite, northbound pass

Farm covered100%≈the whole farm lies inside the image

Structures ringed101 confirmed · 0 not yet confirmed≈as counted on 2026-08-29 · the image is newer than the count, so a bright spot without a ring may be a structure not yet counted

Construction ports

PortPort of Tyne ◆·foundations · draft 13.5 m

PortPort of Hull ◆turbines

PortPort of Blyth ◆offshore construction base

Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA and by Microsoft Planetary Computer.

Latest satellite radar image · 2026-09-07

a radar picture, not a photograph: the sea is dark, steel is bright · black is beyond the edge of the image

confirmed structure (101)seen recently, not yet confirmed (0)probably a substation platform (a larger structure than a turbine; the register above has the facts)farm boundary

Satellite radar image over Sofia Offshore Wind Farm, 2026-09-07

Grid connection

from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers

Offshore platforms · 1

HVDC systemSofia HVDC·1320 MW · ±320 kV · under construction, expected 2026

Export & onshore

Export cableSofia Export Cable·HVDC subsea · 455 km · Prysmian · under construction · to Redcar, Teesside

Onshore connectionLackenby Substation (Dogger Bank C / Sofia connection)·400 kV · under construction · also serves Dogger Bank C

Converter supplierGE Vernova·Sofia HVDC · Seatrium Batam Yard, Batam, Indonesia (the CONSORTIUM partner Seatrium, formerly Sembcorp Marine, is Singapore-headquartered; the YARD is in Indonesia) · for National Grid ESO

Grid connection · ready in time?

when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives

installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved

Sources & verification

16/19 fields verified · rests on 25 sources (19 primary) · ◆ 21 documents held

◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived

Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.

Regulator3

[14]

Planning Inspectorate / UK Government2015-08-04◆ Sofia Offshore Windfarm (Dogger Bank Tee…

“On 4 August 2015 the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change granted consent for the Dogger Bank Teesside A and B Offshore Wind Farm Order 2015. Following the 2015 consent, Dogger Bank Teessi…”

supportsConsentConsent granted