Seagreen 1A
Extension to operational 1.1GW Seagreen Phase 1 (operational 2023). Located 27km off Angus coast.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
SSE Renewables — 49% ◆
TotalEnergies — 51% ◆Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
500 MW ◆
Turbines
36 ◇
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Crown Estate Round 3 · 2010 ·
Water depth
44–59 m ≈
Distance from shore
27 km ◇
Wind speed
10.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Secured ◆
Connection
Cockenzie 400/275kV; Tealing 275/33kV Substation — holds TEC … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2032 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2032
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈75%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2031 | 14.1% |
| 2032 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2033 | 22.7% |
| 2034 | 14.6% |
| 2035 | 8.7% |
| 2036 | 5.1% |
| 2037 | 3.1% |
| 2038 | 1.8% |
| 2039 | 1.1% |
| 2040 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2022. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2026; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2024, the slower quarter not until 2027.3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2031 Q4. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2032, likely range 2032–2033 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The auction step above sets the date: the round has to be won before building can start.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈75%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2010-01
Crown Estate Round 3
- Awarded to
- Seagreen Wind Energy (SSE + Fluor)
- Zone
- Firth of Forth zone
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
5/13 fields verified · rests on 11 sources (4 primary) · ◆ 6 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator3
[6]
Companies House2024-05-03◆ SEAGREEN 1A (HOLDCO) LIMITED persons wit…
“SEAGREEN 1A (HOLDCO) LIMITED (12570748): TotalEnergies Renewables UK Limited — Ownership of shares more than 50% but less than 75%, notified 2024-05-03. SSE Renewables Services (UK) Limited — Ownershi…”
supportsoperatorowner
[13]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 14144: Site Name "Seagreen Phase 1A", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 540 MWelec, Operator "SSE / Seagreen Wind Energy Ltd"”
supportsRegister entry
[14]
Scottish Government Marine Directorate (MD-LOT)2026-08-23◆ Scottish MD-LOT marine projects register…
“Register row "Seagreen 1A Export Cable Corridor" (key ml/seagreen-1a-export-cable-corridor): Application stage "Pre-application", type "Renewables - Wind".”
supportsRegister entry
Operator2
[3]
NESO2026-06-12◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“Seagreen 1 Offshore Wind Farm,Seagreen Wind Energy Limited,Tealing 275/33kV Substation,,1075,0,1075,,Built,Direct Connection,SHET,Wind Offshore,a1f4L000000EHJxQAO,PRO-000527,”
supportsTotal capacityStatusConnection point
[4]
SSE Renewables2022-10◆ Seagreen’s Renewable Energy Output to be…
“Scottish Ministers have granted a variation under section 36C of the Electricity Act 1989 to increase the potential installed capacity of the project's remaining 36 turbines from 360MW to up to 500MW.…”
supportsConsentTotal capacityConsent granted
Auction pipeline1
[15]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press4
[9]
[10]
[11]
[12]
Unverified import1
[1]