Pentland
Floating demonstration project off Dounreay, Caithness. 6 WTGs on Stiesdal TetraSub semi-submersible foundations.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
HWHighland Wind Limited — 100% ◆
Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
100 MW ◆
Turbines
6 ◇
Foundation
Floating ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held 2023-06 ◆
Water depth
74–99 m ≈
Distance from shore
7.5 km ◇
Wind speed
10.0 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · AR7 · £216.49/MWh ◆
Grid
Applied ◆
Connection
Pentland Floating Offshore Wind Farm 132/66kV substation (SHET, … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2030 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈85%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; technical complexity weighs only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 3.9% |
| 2030 (expected) | 50.2% |
| 2031 | 29.5% |
| 2032 | 10.6% |
| 2033 | 3.8% |
| 2034 | 1.4% |
| 2035 | 0.6% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2023. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (floating, in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2028; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026, the slower quarter not until 2029.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2026–2029 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈85%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
CfD-backed offtake
● CfD · AR7
Price£155.37/MWh ·Basis2012 real · CPI-indexed
Capacity92.5 MWAwardedJan 2026Term20 yrs · delivery 2029/30
Money-of-the-day values computed by Hafrok from the United Kingdom CPI index, 2012 real base — actual to 2026-07, then an assumed +2.0%/yr (central-bank target). Cfd terms run 20 years from start of generation in the contracted delivery year.
Contract price over time · £/MWh
solid = actual CPI indexation · dashed = assumed +2.0%/yr
CfD · AR7
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030
Sources & verification
5/14 fields verified · rests on 14 sources (7 primary) · ◆ 9 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator4
[5]
[6]
DESNZ2026-01-14◆ Contracts for Difference Allocation Roun…
“Pentland Floating Offshore Wind Farm NC981666 Scotland HIGHLAND WIND LIMITED Floating Offshore Wind 92.50 155.37 216.49 2029/30 2 4”
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacityMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[13]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 11989: Site Name "Pentland Floating Offshore Wind Farm", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 100 MWelec, Operator "Highland Wind Limi…”
supportsRegister entry
[15]
Scottish Government Marine Directorate (MD-LOT)2026-08-23◆ Scottish MD-LOT marine projects register…
“Register row "Pentland Floating Offshore Wind Farm" (key ml/pentland-floating-offshore-wind-farm): Application stage "Application", type "Renewables - Wind".”
supportsRegister entry
Operator3
[4]
NESO2026-06-12◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“Pentland Floating Offshore Wind Farm,HIGHLAND WIND LIMITED,Pentland Floating Offshore Wind Farm 132/66kV substation,,0,100,100,31/10/2027,Scoping,Direct Connection,SHET,Wind Offshore,a1f4L000000EH5cQA…”
supportsStatusConnection point
[14]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-001472: "Pentland Floating Offshore Wind Farm", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2027-10-31, Customer "HIGHLAND WIND LIMITED"”
supportsRegister entry
[16]
National Wealth Fund2025-11-19◆ Major floating offshore wind project sec…
“Pentland Floating Offshore Wind Farm ... announces investment from the National Wealth Fund, Great British Energy, and the Scottish National Investment Bank each with the option to invest up to £50m. …”
supports↳ parents
Auction results1
[17]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026-01◆ cfd-ar7-results-2026
Offshore Wind (Pot 3) cleared GBP 65.45 (2012) / 91.20 (2024): Awel y Môr A 775.00 MW; Dogger Bank South East/West Unit A 1,500.00 MW each; Norfolk Vanguard East A 1,380 / B 90 / C 75 MW; Norfolk Vang…
supportsCfD · AR7
Trade press4
[8]
Pentland Floating Wind2025
“Pentland Floating Offshore Wind Farm is being developed by Highland Wind Limited which is majority owned by a fund managed by CIP, in partnership with GB Energy, National Wealth Fund, Scottish Nationa…”
supportsoperator
[10]
[11]
[12]
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown◆ Pentland Floating Offshore Wind Farm | m…
supportsTurbinesTotal capacityFoundationWater depthDistance from shore+1 more
Encyclopaedic1
[9]