Outer Dowsing
One of the largest planned UK offshore wind farms. Crown Estate Leasing Round 4 winner.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,500 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Crown Estate Round 4 · 2021 ·
Water depth
13–25 m ≈
Distance from shore
54 km ◇
Wind speed
10.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Secured ◆
Connection
Weston Marsh 400kV Substation (new build). Target connection … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2030 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2032 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2032
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2030; Hafrok expects 2032 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈71%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2031 | 14.1% |
| 2032 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2033 | 22.7% |
| 2034 | 14.6% |
| 2035 | 8.7% |
| 2036 | 5.1% |
| 2037 | 3.1% |
| 2038 | 1.8% |
| 2039 | 1.1% |
| 2040 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2030; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2028, the slower quarter not until 2031.3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2031 Q4. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2032, likely range 2032–2033 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2030) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈71%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2021-02
Crown Estate Round 4
- Awarded to
- Green Investment Group – Total
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
JV formation · 2022-01
TotalEnergies · Corio Generation stake not disclosed
- Stake
- not disclosed
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2022-01
- Project stage
- early development
TotalEnergies and Corio Generation (a specialist offshore wind business wholly owned by Macquarie's Green Investment Group) jointly won the seabed lease for Outer Dowsing in the UK's Offshore Wind Leasing Round 4. TotalEnergies 50%, Corio/GIG 50%. No monetary consideration; pure JV formation on a new lease.
Evidence
From Hafrok’s transactions record
JV entry · 2023-03
Corio Generation (GIG / Macquarie) → Gulf Energy Development (Gulf International Holding) 24.99%
- Stake
- 24.99%
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2023-03
- Project stage
- early development
Gulf Energy Development Plc (Thai, SET-listed) via subsidiary GIH acquired a 24.99% indirect equity stake in Outer Dowsing through a JV with GIG, which retained 25.01%. TotalEnergies remained at 50%. GIH entered through a sub-JV with GIG, not directly into the project company. DCO consent granted February 2026.
Evidence
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030
Sources & verification
5/12 fields verified · rests on 13 sources (8 primary) · ◆ 7 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator3
[3]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-02-10◆ Development consent granted for Outer Do…
“The Secretary of State granted consent for this application on Tuesday 10 February 2026. The application was submitted by GT R4 Limited (trading as Outer Dowsing Offshore Wind) ... a joint venture bet…”
supportsConsentTotal capacityConsent granted
[14]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 11663: Site Name "Outer Dowsing Offshore Wind Farm", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 1500 MWelec, Operator "Green Investment Grou…”
supportsRegister entry
[16]
The Planning Inspectorate (PINS)2026-08-23◆ PINS national infrastructure application…
“Project reference EN010130: "Outer Dowsing Offshore Wind (Generating Station)"; applicant "GT R4 Limited (trading as Outer Dowsing Offshore Wind)"; Stage "Post-decision"; anticipated submission Februa…”
supportsRegister entry
Operator4
[6]
Outer Dowsing Offshore Wind (project)2026
“Developed by a consortium of four partners: TotalEnergies ... Macquarie and Broadhelm Renewables ... Gulf Energy Development (GULF) ... Grid connection secured for November 2030.”
supportsdeveloperCommercial operation
[7]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-06◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“GT R4 Wind Farm, GT R4 LIMITED, Weston Marsh 400kV Substation, MW Increase: 1500, Cumulative: 1500, Effective: 30/11/2030, Status: Scoping, Agreement: Direct Connection, Host: NGET, Type: Wind Offshor…”
supportsStatusConnection point
[9]
Gulf Energy Development2024◆ Gulf invests in 1500 MW Outer Dowsing
supportsoperatorfinancial_investor
[15]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-000563: "GT R4 Wind Farm", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2030-11-30, Customer "GT R4 LIMITED"”
supportsRegister entry
Auction pipeline1
[17]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press4
[10]
[11]
4C Offshore (TGS)2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
[12]
[13]
Unverified import1
[1]