North Falls
Extension to existing 504MW Greater Gabbard wind farm. 90km² array area. Agreement for Lease signed September 2020.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
SSE Renewables — 50% ◆RORWE Offshore Wind — 50% ◆
Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,000 MW ◆
Turbines
57 ◆
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
The Crown Estate 2017 Offshore Wind Extensions opportunity · 2020 ·
Water depth
24–45 m ≈
Distance from shore
40 km ◆
Wind speed
9.8 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD ◆
Grid
Applied ◆
Connection
North Falls Offshore Platform Substation — NESO TEC register … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2030 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2032 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2032
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2030; Hafrok expects 2032 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈82%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; its size and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2031 | 14.1% |
| 2032 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2033 | 22.7% |
| 2034 | 14.6% |
| 2035 | 8.7% |
| 2036 | 5.1% |
| 2037 | 3.1% |
| 2038 | 1.8% |
| 2039 | 1.1% |
| 2040 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2030; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2028, the slower quarter not until 2031.3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2031 Q4. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2032, likely range 2032–2033 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2030) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈82%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2020-09
The Crown Estate 2017 Offshore Wind Extensions opportunity
- Awarded to
- incumbent operators of the seven parent farms
- Zone
- 2017 extensions award (seven projects)
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
JV formation · 2021-10
SSE Renewables · RWE stake not disclosed
- Stake
- not disclosed
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2021-10
- Project stage
- early development
SSE Renewables and RWE Offshore Wind established a 50:50 joint venture to develop the North Falls Offshore Wind Farm, an extension of the Greater Gabbard array. DCO application submitted July 2024; accepted for examination August 2024. No FID or farmdown transactions as of Feb 2026.
Evidence
- offshoreWIND.biz — RWE, SSE Start Early Consultation for North Falls Offshore Wind Farm ↗ 2021-10 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030
Sources & verification
8/14 fields verified · rests on 15 sources (9 primary) · ◆ 10 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator5
[4]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-14◆ North Falls development consent decision
“The North Falls Offshore Wind Farm application has today been granted development consent by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. ... Published 14 May 2026”
supportsConsentConsent granted
[12]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 10913: Site Name "North Falls Offshore Wind Farm", Development Status "Application Submitted", Installed Capacity 1000 MWelec, Operator "RWE Generation UK Plc /…”
supportsRegister entry
[14]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-08-03◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q2 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 10913: Site Name "North Falls Offshore Wind Farm", Development Status "Planning Permission Granted", Installed Capacity 1000 MWelec, Operator "RWE Generation UK…”
supportsRegister entry
[15]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-14◆ North Falls Offshore Wind Farm: developm…
“Decision by the Secretary of State on an application for the construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning of an offshore wind farm including up to 57 wind turbines and generating capacity…”
supportsConsentTurbinesDistance from shoreConsent granted
[16]
The Planning Inspectorate (PINS)2026-08-23◆ PINS national infrastructure application…
“Project reference EN010119: "North Falls Offshore Wind Farm"; applicant "North Falls Offshore Wind Farm Ltd"; Stage "Post-decision"; anticipated submission 2024; applied 2024-07-26; accepted 2024-08-2…”
supportsRegister entry
Operator4
[3]
NESO2026-06-12◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“North Falls Offshore Wind Farm,NORTH FALLS OFFSHORE WIND FARM LIMITED,North Falls Offshore Platform Substation,,0,1000,1000,31/10/2030,Scoping,Direct Connection,NGET,Wind Offshore,a1f4L000000EHJKQA4,P…”
supportsCommercial operationStatusConnection point
[5]
SSE Renewables2026-05-15◆ SSE welcomes development consent for Nor…
“North Falls is being developed as a 50/50 joint venture by SSE Renewables and RWE Offshore Wind (RWE) ... maximum generation export capacity of up to 1GW ... The delivery of North Falls is subject to …”
supportsoperatorTotal capacity
[6]
RWE2026-05-14◆ North Falls offshore wind farm receives …
“With an installed generating capacity of approximately 1 gigawatt (GW), North Falls would be capable of generating enough clean, low carbon electricity to power the equivalent of hundreds of thousands…”
supportsdeveloperTotal capacityMechanism
[13]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-000451: "North Falls Offshore Wind Farm", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2030-10-31, Customer "NORTH FALLS OFFSHORE WIND FARM LIMITED"”
supportsRegister entry
Auction pipeline1
[17]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press4
[8]
[9]
[10]
[11]
Unverified import1
[1]