Norfolk Vanguard West
Part of Norfolk Offshore Wind Zone. Most advanced Norfolk project with critical components secured. KKR partnership announced January 2026.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,380 MW ◆
Turbines
— ◇
Foundation
Monopile ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Crown Estate Round 3 · 2010 ·
Water depth
25–50 m ◇
Distance from shore
47 km ◇
Wind speed
10.1 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · AR7 · £91.2/MWh ◆
Grid
Secured ◆
Connection
Necton 400kV (National Grid), TEC secured, effective December … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2029 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2029 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2029
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈86%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; its size and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2028 | 3.9% |
| 2029 (expected) | 50.2% |
| 2030 | 29.5% |
| 2031 | 10.6% |
| 2032 | 3.8% |
| 2033 | 1.4% |
| 2034 | 0.6% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2022. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2026; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2024, the slower quarter not until 2027.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2029, likely range 2024–2027 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈86%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2010-01
Crown Estate Round 3
- Awarded to
- East Anglia Offshore Wind Ltd (ScottishPower Renewables + Vattenfall)
- Zone
- Norfolk Bank (East Anglia) zone
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Portfolio sale · 2023-12
Vattenfall → RWE 100%
- Stake
- 100%
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2023-12
- Closed
- 2024-03
- Project stage
- consented
Part of the GBP 963m (EUR ~1,107m) Norfolk Offshore Wind Zone portfolio sale. See Norfolk Vanguard East entry for full deal context. Transaction closed 27 March 2024. Per-project value not disclosed.
Evidence
- group.vattenfall.com — Vattenfall to divest Norfolk Offshore Wind Zone to RWE ↗ 2023-12 ◆ held
- Vattenfall — Vattenfall — q1 report 2024 ↗ 2024-Q1 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Farmdown · 2026-01
RWE → KKR 50%
- Stake
- 50%
- Consideration
- €837m
- Implied 100% value
- €1,674m
- Implied
- €1.20m / MW
- Announced
- 2026-01
- Project stage
- pre-FID
See Norfolk Vanguard East entry for full deal context. The RWE/KKR partnership covers both Vanguard projects simultaneously. USD 1.8bn (~EUR 1.67bn) reported for combined 50% in both projects. Per-project allocation approximately equal (~EUR 837m each). FID expected summer 2026.
Evidence
- offshoreWIND.biz — Global Investor Joining RWE on Two Norfolk Vanguard Offshore Wind Projects, FID Expected in Summer ↗ 2026-01 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
CfD-backed offtake
● CfD · AR7
Price£65.45/MWh ·Basis2012 real · CPI-indexed
Capacity1,545 MWAwardedJan 2026Term20 yrs · delivery 2028/29
Money-of-the-day values computed by Hafrok from the United Kingdom CPI index, 2012 real base — actual to 2026-07, then an assumed +2.0%/yr (central-bank target). Cfd terms run 20 years from start of generation in the contracted delivery year.
Contract price over time · £/MWh
solid = actual CPI indexation · dashed = assumed +2.0%/yr
CfD · AR7
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2029
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
HVDC systemNorfolk Vanguard West HVDC·1400 MW · ±320 kV · under construction, expected 2027
Export & onshore
Onshore connectionNecton Converter Station (Norfolk Vanguard / Boreas)·400 kV · planning · also serves Norfolk Boreas, Norfolk Vanguard East
Converter supplierSiemens Energy·Norfolk Vanguard West HVDC · Drydocks World (Dubai, UAE) — topside; Aker Solutions (Verdal, Norway) — substructure · for National Grid ESO
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
7/14 fields verified · rests on 13 sources (8 primary) · ◆ 9 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator3
[3]
DESNZ2026-01◆ Contracts for Difference Allocation Roun…
“Norfolk Vanguard West CFD Unit A TF889106 England NORFOLK VANGUARD WEST LIMITED Offshore Wind 1380.00 65.45 91.20 2028/29 2 3”
supportsMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[5]
Planning Inspectorate2022-02-11◆ Norfolk Vanguard DCO project page (EN010…
“Norfolk Vanguard Offshore Wind Farm ... DCO Decision Date: 11 February 2022. The project comprises two distinct areas: Norfolk Vanguard West (approximately 295km²) and Norfolk Vanguard East (approxima…”
supportsConsentConsent granted
[12]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 20218: Site Name "The East Anglia Array - Norfolk Vanguard West", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 1380 MWelec, Operator "RWE Rene…”
supportsTotal capacity
Operator5
[4]
RWE AG2026-01-14◆ RWE secures CfDs for 6.9 GW of offshore …
“KKR acquires a 50% equity stake in each of the Norfolk Vanguard projects ... Closing of the partnership transaction and the project financing, as well as the final investment decision (FID), are targe…”
supportsoperatorinvestorCommercial operation
[6]
RWE AG2024-03-27◆ RWE expands its UK offshore wind develop…
“The three development projects have already secured seabed rights, grid connections, Development Consent Orders and all other key permits.”
supportsStatusConnection point
[8]
RWE AG2026-02-20◆ RWE and Vestas agree turbine supply agre…
“Under the terms of the contract, Vestas will be responsible for the supply, delivery and commissioning of 92 of its V236-15.0 megawatts (MW) offshore wind turbines.”
supportsTotal capacity
[10]
[13]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-000459: "Vanguard", Status "Consents Approved", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2025-12-01, Customer "NORFOLK VANGUARD WEST LIMITED"”
supportsRegister entry
Auction results1
[15]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026-01◆ cfd-ar7-results-2026
Offshore Wind (Pot 3) cleared GBP 65.45 (2012) / 91.20 (2024): Awel y Môr A 775.00 MW; Dogger Bank South East/West Unit A 1,500.00 MW each; Norfolk Vanguard East A 1,380 / B 90 / C 75 MW; Norfolk Vang…
supportsCfD · AR7
Trade press3
[7]
Power Technology2024
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsFoundationWater depthDistance from shore
[9]
power-technology.com2025
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsUnit capacityFoundationWater depth
[11]
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown◆ Vanguard West, East & Boreas Offshore Wi…
supportsUnit capacityTotal capacityFoundationWater depthDistance from shore