Norfolk Vanguard East
Part of Norfolk Offshore Wind Zone. Secured most critical components. KKR partnership announced January 2026.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,380 MW ◆
Turbines
92 × 15 MW ◇
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Crown Estate Round 3 · 2010 ·
Water depth
21–39 m ≈
Distance from shore
47 km ◆
Wind speed
10.1 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · AR7 · £91.2/MWh ◆
Grid
Secured ◆
Connection
Necton 400kV substation (National Grid), TEC secured; onshore … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2030 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈84%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; its size and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 3.9% |
| 2030 (expected) | 50.2% |
| 2031 | 29.5% |
| 2032 | 10.6% |
| 2033 | 3.8% |
| 2034 | 1.4% |
| 2035 | 0.6% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2022. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2026; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2024, the slower quarter not until 2027.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2024–2027 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈84%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2010-01
Crown Estate Round 3
- Awarded to
- East Anglia Offshore Wind Ltd (ScottishPower Renewables + Vattenfall)
- Zone
- Norfolk Bank (East Anglia) zone
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Portfolio sale · 2023-12
Vattenfall → RWE 100%
- Stake
- 100%
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2023-12
- Closed
- 2024-03
- Project stage
- consented
Part of the GBP 963m (EUR ~1,107m at GBP/EUR 1.15) Norfolk Offshore Wind Zone portfolio sale covering three projects: Norfolk Vanguard East, Norfolk Vanguard West and Norfolk Boreas (combined 4.2 GW). The GBP 963m figure is an enterprise value covering the entire three-project zone; no per-project split was disclosed. Vattenfall had paused Boreas in July 2023 due to 40% cost inflation eroding the AR4 CfD economics. RWE committed to restarting Boreas development. Transaction closed 27 March 2024.
Evidence
- offshoreWIND.biz — RWE Buys Vattenfall's Norfolk Trio for EUR 1.1 Billion, Restarts Paused Norfolk Boreas Project ↗ 2023-12 ◆ held
- Vattenfall — Vattenfall — q1 report 2024 ↗ 2024-Q1 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Farmdown · 2026-01
RWE → KKR 50%
- Stake
- 50%
- Consideration
- €837m
- Implied 100% value
- €1,674m
- Implied
- €1.20m / MW
- Announced
- 2026-01
- Project stage
- pre-FID
RWE and KKR announced a 50:50 joint venture to build and operate Norfolk Vanguard East and Norfolk Vanguard West. KKR is reported (Reuters, unnamed sources) to be paying ~USD 1.8bn (~EUR 1.67bn at USD/EUR 0.93) for 50% across both projects combined. Per-project split approximately equal — recorded here as ~EUR 837m per project (half of ~EUR 1,674m total). Total development capex exceeds USD 15bn. Both projects won CfDs in AR7 (January 2026). Closing subject to regulatory approvals, expected summer 2026.
Evidence
- businesswire.com — KKR Announces Strategic Partnership With RWE to Realise UK Offshore Windfarms ↗ 2026-01 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
CfD-backed offtake
● CfD · AR7
Price£65.45/MWh ·Basis2012 real · CPI-indexed
Capacity1,545 MWAwardedJan 2026Term20 yrs · delivery 2029/30
Money-of-the-day values computed by Hafrok from the United Kingdom CPI index, 2012 real base — actual to 2026-07, then an assumed +2.0%/yr (central-bank target). Cfd terms run 20 years from start of generation in the contracted delivery year.
Contract price over time · £/MWh
solid = actual CPI indexation · dashed = assumed +2.0%/yr
CfD · AR7
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
HVDC systemNorfolk Vanguard East HVDC·1400 MW · ±320 kV · under construction, expected 2028
Export & onshore
Onshore connectionNecton Converter Station (Norfolk Vanguard / Boreas)·400 kV · planning · also serves Norfolk Boreas, Norfolk Vanguard West
Converter supplierSiemens Energy·Norfolk Vanguard East HVDC · Drydocks World (Dubai, UAE) — topside; Aker Solutions (Verdal, Norway) — substructure · for National Grid ESO
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
9/14 fields verified · rests on 12 sources (7 primary) · ◆ 9 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator3
[3]
DESNZ2026-01◆ Contracts for Difference Allocation Roun…
“Norfolk Vanguard East CFD Unit A TF889106 England NORFOLK VANGUARD EAST LIMITED Offshore Wind 1380.00 65.45 91.20 2029/30 2 3”
supportsMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[5]
Planning Inspectorate2022-02-11◆ Norfolk Vanguard DCO project page (EN010…
“This application was granted on 11 February 2022. The offshore site occupies about 592 square kilometres over two distinct areas – Norfolk Vanguard East and Norfolk Vanguard West.”
supportsConsentConsent granted
[11]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 2484: Site Name "The East Anglia Array - Norfolk Vanguard East", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 1380 MWelec, Operator "RWE Renew…”
supportsRegister entry
Operator5
[4]
RWE AG2026-01-14◆ RWE secures CfDs for 6.9 GW of offshore …
“Closing of the partnership transaction and the project financing, as well as the final investment decision (FID), are targeted for summer 2026. Commissioning of the projects is expected for 2029 (Norf…”
supportsoperatorinvestorCommercial operationStatusConnection point
[6]
RWE2026-01◆ About Vanguard West, East & Boreas Offsh…
“Onshore construction of the underground cable route began in 2023 and is well underway.”
supportsDistance from shore
[7]
RWE AG2026-03-10◆ RWE and Vestas agree turbine supply agre…
“Vestas will be responsible for the supply, delivery and commissioning of 92 of its V236-15.0 megawatts (MW) offshore wind turbines.”
supportsTurbinesTotal capacity
[8]
[12]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-000459: "Vanguard", Status "Consents Approved", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2025-12-01, Customer "NORFOLK VANGUARD WEST LIMITED"; PRO-000580-1: "Vangua…”
supportsRegister entry
Auction results1
[14]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026-01◆ cfd-ar7-results-2026
Offshore Wind (Pot 3) cleared GBP 65.45 (2012) / 91.20 (2024): Awel y Môr A 775.00 MW; Dogger Bank South East/West Unit A 1,500.00 MW each; Norfolk Vanguard East A 1,380 / B 90 / C 75 MW; Norfolk Vang…
supportsCfD · AR7
Trade press2
[9]
[10]
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown◆ Vanguard West, East & Boreas Offshore Wi…
supportsTurbinesUnit capacityTotal capacityWater depthDistance from shore