Norfolk Boreas

Part of Norfolk Offshore Wind Zone. Located 50-80km off Norfolk coast. All permits obtained but economics dependent on CfD.

Status

Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage

ExpectedHafrok completion outlook

Ownership

RWE — 100% ◆

Location

United Kingdom

North Sea

Verification

5/11 fields verified

15 sources · ◆ 11 documents held

◆verified≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived

open the source register →

Technology

Capacity 1,380 MW ◆

Turbines —

Foundation —

Site & conditions

Site rights Seabed rights held ∴

Origination Crown Estate Round 3 · 2010 ·

Water depth 26–37 m ≈ Wind speed 10.1 m/s @ 150 m ≈

Revenue & grid

Offtake —

Grid Applied ◆ Connection Necton 400kV Substation — NESO TEC register entry at Scoping … ◆

Schedule

FID Not taken

COD · Hafrok 2032 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2032

expected year of commercial operation

Chance of delivery

≈73% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation

Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: its size and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2031	14.1%
2032 (expected)	28.0%
2033	22.7%
2034	14.6%
2035	8.7%
2036	5.1%
2037	3.1%
2038	1.8%
2039	1.1%
2040	0.7%

How Hafrok got this date

Starting point: the last dated milestone

Consent granted in 2021. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.

Typical timing

Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2025; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2023, the slower quarter not until 2026.

Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8

The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around 2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2031 Q4. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2032, likely range 2032–2033 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The auction step above sets the date: the round has to be won before building can start.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈73%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open

CfD · AR4 awarded 2022-07, terminated. No live offtake on record. ◇

The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.

CfD allocation round

The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.

Next visible round · from the auction calendar

CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇

expected H2 2026 · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project

AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation

Corporate PPA

Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.

Merchant

Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started

nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does

Installation · on record

StageAdvanced Development

Offshore constructionnot started

Expected start of operationnot stated

Grid connection

from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers

Offshore platforms · 1

HVDC systemNorfolk Boreas HVDC·1400 MW · ±320 kV · planned, expected 2030

Export & onshore

Onshore connectionNecton Converter Station (Norfolk Vanguard / Boreas)·400 kV · planning · also serves Norfolk Vanguard East, Norfolk Vanguard West

Converter supplierSiemens Energy·Norfolk Boreas HVDC · TBD · for National Grid ESO

Grid connection · ready in time?

when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives

installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved

Sources & verification

5/11 fields verified · rests on 15 sources (8 primary) · ◆ 11 documents held

◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived

Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.

Regulator2

[4]

UK Government (legislation.gov.uk)2021-12-10◆ The Norfolk Boreas Offshore Wind Farm Or…

“The Norfolk Boreas Offshore Wind Farm Order 2021 — grants development consent for, and authorises Norfolk Boreas Limited to construct, operate and maintain a generating station located in the North Se…”

supportsConsentConsent granted