Mona
Crown Estate Round 4. Lease area ~500km². Average water depth 35m. Belfast to be used for marshalling.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
JNJERA Nex bp — 100% ◆
Location
United KingdomIrish Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,500 MW ◆
Turbines
96 ◇
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Crown Estate Round 4 · 2021 ·
Water depth
35–42 m ≈
Wind speed
10.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Applied ◆
Connection
Bodelwyddan 400kV Substation — NESO TEC register entry at … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2032 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2032
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈71%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2031 | 14.1% |
| 2032 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2033 | 22.7% |
| 2034 | 14.6% |
| 2035 | 8.7% |
| 2036 | 5.1% |
| 2037 | 3.1% |
| 2038 | 1.8% |
| 2039 | 1.1% |
| 2040 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2029; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2027, the slower quarter not until 2030.3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2031 Q4. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2032, likely range 2032–2033 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The auction step above sets the date: the round has to be won before building can start.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈71%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2021-02
Crown Estate Round 4
- Awarded to
- Consortium of EnBW and BP
- Basis
- seabed award
Founding JV · 2021-03
BP · EnBW — Same JV formation as Morgan above. BP and EnBW entered a 50:50 partnership for both Irish Sea Round 4 leases simultaneously. Projects named July 2021.
Evidence
From the auction results — the round that created the project; founding JV from Hafrok’s transactions record.
Divestment · 2026-01
EnBW → JERA Nex bp 50%
- Stake
- 50%
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2026-01
- Project stage
- consented
EnBW announced on 15 January 2026 its withdrawal from both Mona and Morgan after both projects failed to secure CfDs in AR7. EnBW's exit triggered an impairment of EUR 1.2bn in EnBW's 2025 accounts. JERA Nex bp (the 50:50 JV between JERA Co. and bp, formed Aug 2025) acquired EnBW's 50% stake in Mona for an undisclosed consideration, giving JERA Nex bp 100% of Mona. Morgan was simultaneously abandoned entirely. Mona's DCO consent was granted August 2025. Only Mona was sold to JNbp — Morgan was discontinued by both partners, not transferred. The EUR 1.2bn figure is an equity-method impairment on Mona AND Morgan combined (recoverable amount EUR 70.3m for the two at YE2025) — a valuation, not a price.
Evidence
- offshoreWIND.biz — JERA Nex BP Acquires Full Ownership of Mona Offshore Wind Project from Partner EnBW, 1.5 GW Morgan Discontinued ↗ 2026-01 ◆ held
- EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG — EnBW Integrated Annual Report 2025 ↗ 2026-03-09 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
4/11 fields verified · rests on 14 sources (7 primary) · ◆ 8 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator3
[4]
Planning Inspectorate / Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero2025-07-04◆ Mona Offshore Wind Farm DCO (SI 2025/870…
"The Mona Offshore Wind Farm Order 2025" made 4th July 2025. The undertaker is Mona Offshore Wind Limited (company registration number 13497266). Authorises development of an offshore wind generating …
supportsConsentConsent granted
[12]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 10918: Site Name "Mona Offshore Wind Farm", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 1500 MWelec, Operator "BP Oil UK Limited / ENBW UK Li…”
supportsRegister entry
[15]
The Planning Inspectorate (PINS)2026-08-23◆ PINS national infrastructure application…
“Project reference EN010137: "Mona Offshore Wind Farm"; applicant "Mona Offshore Wind Limited"; Stage "Post-decision"; anticipated submission Q1 2024; applied 2024-02-22; accepted 2024-03-21; examinati…”
supportsRegister entry
Operator6
[3]
NESO2026-06-12◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“Mona Offshore Wind Farm,Mona Offshore Wind Limited,Bodelwyddan 400kV Substation,,0,1500,1500,31/10/2029,Scoping,Direct Connection,NGET,Wind Offshore,a1f4L000000EHJLQA4,PRO-001391,”
supportsStatusConnection point
[5]
JERA Nex bp2026-01-16◆ JERA Nex bp acquires EnBW stake in Mona …
"JERA Nex bp Acquires EnBW's Stake in Mona Offshore Wind Farm, Signs Lease Agreement with The Crown Estate." The project "could deliver up 1.5GW of clean energy to the UK." JERA Nex bp is "a 50:50 joi…
supportsTotal capacity
[7]
[9]
[13]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-001391: "Mona Offshore Wind Farm", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2029-10-31, Customer "Mona Offshore Wind Limited"”
supportsRegister entry
[16]
Auction pipeline1
[17]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press3
[8]
[10]
[11]
Unverified import1
[1]