Inch Cape

Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2027 (expected)	86.7%
2028	13.3%

Developer COD guidance, by the date it was stated
Stated	Announced COD
2026-06-03	2027 (held since 2024-12-13, 4 statements)

How Hafrok got this date

Starting point: the last dated milestone

Construction start in 2023. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.

Typical timing

Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2025; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2024, the slower quarter not until 2026. Dates already in the past are moved up to today — this project has run beyond the typical timing.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2027, likely range 2025–2027 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈98%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. Ownership lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Announced COD: held (announced 2027, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above

Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day

CfD-backed — 2 allocation rounds

● CfD · AR4

Price£37.35/MWh ·

Basis2012 real · CPI-indexed

Capacity1,080 MW AwardedJul 2022

Term15 yrs · delivery 2026/27

● CfD · AR6

Price£54.23/MWh ·

Basis2012 real · CPI-indexed

Capacity266.11 MW AwardedSep 2024

Term15 yrs · delivery 2027/28

Money-of-the-day values computed by Hafrok from the United Kingdom CPI index, 2012 real base — actual to 2026-07, then an assumed +2.0%/yr (central-bank target). Cfd terms run 15 years from start of generation in the contracted delivery year.

Contract price over time · £/MWh

solid = actual CPI indexation · dashed = assumed +2.0%/yr

CfD · AR4CfD · AR6

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Satellite installation tracker

counted from satellite radar images · a structure standing in the sea on a given date, not a turbine producing power · a guide, not a sourced fact

Installation · counted from satellite

Foundations53 of 72≈74% · first seen 2025-12-27

Turbinesnone yet≈0 of 72

Latest count2026-08-31from 281 satellite passes · 1 substation platform left out so the counts compare with the turbine number · anything first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed

Hafrok counts foundations and turbines from satellite radar images (≈): a structure is counted once it is seen standing in the sea, which is not the same as producing power. A structure first seen in the last 60 days is not yet confirmed, because on a single image a freshly set foundation and a ship holding position look alike. Substation platforms are left out so the counts compare with the number of turbines. Rows marked with a dot (·) come from Hafrok’s own registers; a supplier or contract appears only where a source states it — everything else reads “not recorded”, never guessed.

Structures standing over time · count

strong line = confirmed · light line = seen in the last 60 days, not yet confirmed · the chart counts every structure (72 turbines + 1 platform); the table counts turbines only

foundationsturbines up (a substation top being set in place counts here too)

Installation contracts

FoundationsLes Alizés◇Jan De Nul · foundation installation vessel · 2025-12 → 2026-06 · Completed FoundationsSeaway Alfa Lift◇Seaway7 · foundation installation vessel · 2026 → · Underway TurbinesWind Mover◇Cadeler · turbine installation vessel · 2026-Q4 · Contracted Offshore substationSleipnir◇Heerema · heavy-lift vessel · 2025-08 → 2025-08 · Completed

Satellite image

Image taken2026-09-07≈Copernicus Sentinel-1 radar satellite, southbound pass

Farm covered100%≈the whole farm lies inside the image

Structures ringed54 confirmed · 0 not yet confirmed≈as counted on 2026-08-31 · the image is newer than the count, so a bright spot without a ring may be a structure not yet counted

Construction ports

PortPort of Dundee ◆turbines

PortPort of Leith ◆foundations

PortPort of Montrose ◆operations base

PortPort of Blyth ◆cables

PortWallsend (Smulders yard ◆fabrication

Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026, processed by ESA and by Microsoft Planetary Computer.

Latest satellite radar image · 2026-09-07

a radar picture, not a photograph: the sea is dark, steel is bright · black is beyond the edge of the image

confirmed structure (54)seen recently, not yet confirmed (0)probably a substation platform (a larger structure than a turbine; the register above has the facts)farm boundary

Satellite radar image over Inch Cape, 2026-09-07

Grid connection

from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers

Offshore platforms · 1

Offshore substationInch Cape Offshore Substation Platform (Siemens Energy OTM)·under construction · owner Inch Cape Offshore Wind Limited (ESB 50% / Red Rock Renewables 50%)

Grid connection · ready in time?

when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives

installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved

Sources & verification

18/19 fields verified · rests on 30 sources (32 primary) · ◆ 24 documents held

◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived

Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.

Regulator6

[1]

Marine Scotland (Scottish Government)2019-06-17◆ Section 36 Consent - Construction and Op…

“Decision Notice and Section 36A Declaration both issued on 17 June 2019 for the construction and operation of Inch Cape Offshore Windfarm, Firth of Forth. ... Section 36 Consent - Construction and Ope…”

supportsConsentConsent granted

source ↗archive ↗

[3]

BEIS (UK Government)2022-07-07◆ Contracts for Difference Allocation Roun…

“Inch Cape Offshore Limited — 1,080 MW at £37.35/MWh (2012 prices), Allocation Round 4.”

supportsMechanismStrike / priceDetailCfD · AR4