Gwynt Glas
Crown Estate Round 5. EDF-ESB joint venture. Off South Wales/SW England. Part of 4.5GW Celtic Sea floating program.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Location
United KingdomCeltic Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,500 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
Floating ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Crown Estate Round 5 · 2025 ·
Water depth
70–83 m ≈
Distance from shore
40 km ◆
Wind speed
10.1 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Applied ◆
Connection
Alverdiscott 400kV Substation ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · guidance
2037 ⌁
COD · Hafrok
2037 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2037
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈52%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2036 | 14.1% |
| 2037 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2038 | 22.7% |
| 2039 | 14.6% |
| 2040 | 8.7% |
| 2041 | 5.1% |
| 2042 | 3.1% |
| 2043 | 1.8% |
| 2044 | 1.1% |
| 2045 | 0.7% |
| Stated | Announced COD |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 2035 |
| 2026-08-10 | 2037 |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (floating, in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2034 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2032 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2037, likely range 2037–2043 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈52%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2025-06
Crown Estate Round 5
- Awarded to
- Gwynt Glas — EDF + ESB joint venture
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
JV formation · 2024-04-10
EDF Renewables UK · ESB · Reventus Power stake not disclosed
- Stake
- not disclosed
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2024-04-10
- Project stage
- early development
Formation of the three-way JV behind the 1.5 GW Gwynt Glas floating project in the Celtic Sea, each partner at 33.33%. DP Energy is NOT an equity partner and is deliberately absent from partners[] — s1 describes it as remaining "a development partner in the project", a services role. Predates the Crown Estate Leasing Round 5 award — s1 says the trio "expects to bid", so the project held no seabed rights at this date.
Evidence
- Gwynt Glas Offshore Wind Farm — Gwynt glas floating offshore wind farm sees new partnership formed ↗ 2024-04-10 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
JV entry · 2026-08-10
Sumitomo Corporation 33.33%
- Stake
- 33.33%
- Consideration
- not disclosed
- Announced
- 2026-08-10
- Closed
- 2026-08
- Project stage
- early development
Sumitomo Corporation joins the Gwynt Glas JV as an equal partner; the cap table becomes EDF power solutions UK and Ireland / ESB / Sumitomo at 33.33% each, with DP Energy continuing in its non-equity development role. Reventus Power held 33.33% at the 2024 formation (the preceding row) and is not named in s1; by arithmetic its stake went somewhere, but s1 states only that Sumitomo joined and that each partner "now holds a 33.33% stake". A secondary sale by Reventus and a fresh subscription that diluted it out are both consistent with the wording. This platform has been caught by exactly that ambiguity before — the pl-baltica-2/-3 case, where Ørsted SUBSCRIBED FOR NEW SHARES and reading it as a purchase would have been wrong — so no mechanism is asserted here. FOLLOW-UP: Reventus Power's exit is a real ownership change with no evidenced transaction. It needs its own source (Companies House filings for the project SPV would settle it) before a row can be written, and until then the ledger shows Reventus entering in 2024 and not leaving. That gap is deliberate and visible rather than papered over with an inferred sale. Consideration undisclosed — not estimated.
Evidence
- Gwynt Glas Offshore Wind Farm — Gwynt glas offshore wind project strengthens development and welcomes new partner sumitomo ↗ 2026-08-10 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: slipped so far +2.0 yr (first announced 2035) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2037
Sources & verification
8/12 fields verified · rests on 12 sources (9 primary) · ◆ 8 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[12]
The Planning Inspectorate (PINS)2026-08-23◆ PINS national infrastructure application…
“Project reference EN0110036: "Gwynt Glas Offshore Wind Farm"; applicant "Gwynt Glas Offshore Wind Farm Limited"; Stage "Pre-application"; anticipated submission September 2028.”
supportsRegister entry
Operator8
[1]
The Crown Estate2025-06-19
“19 June 2025: Equinor and Gwynt Glas (EDF Renewables/ESB joint venture) selected as preferred bidders for two sites”
supportsConsent
[2]
The Crown Estate2025-10-07◆ Celtic Sea Round 5 - Equinor + Gwynt Gla…
“Equinor and Gwynt Glas enter agreements for lease for floating wind farms [signed 7 October 2025]. Both projects aim to be operational by the mid-2030s and could support over 5,000 new jobs across the…”
supportsCommercial operation
[3]
EDF Renewables UK2025-06-18◆ Gwynt Glas secures site in The Crown Est…
“EDF Renewables UK and ESB have formed a 50:50 joint venture company to develop Gwynt Glas together. The project has the potential to generate up to 1,500 MW of clean renewable energy. Gwynt Glas is a …”
supportsTotal capacityFoundation
[4]
Gwynt Glas (EDF Renewables UK / ESB JV)2026-06
“EDF power solutions and ESB have entered into a partnership to develop Gwynt Glas Floating Offshore Wind Farm. DP Energy serves as exclusive development partner.”
supportsFoundation
[5]
NESO2026-06-12◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“Gwynt Glas Offshore Wind Farm 2,GWYNT GLAS OFFSHORE WIND FARM LIMITED, Alverdiscott 400kV Substation,,0,1000,1000,06/12/2036,Scoping, Direct Connection,NGET,Wind Offshore,a1f8e0000008T5uAAE,PRO-002480…”
supportsStatusConnection point
[8]
Sumitomo Corporation2026-08-10◆ Sumitomo Corporation joins Gwynt Glas fl…
“Sumitomo Corporation (Head Office: Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo; Representative Director, President and CEO: Shingo Ueno) is delighted to announce the acquisition of a 33.3% equity interest in the Gwynt Glas Off…”
supportsownerCommercial operationCOD history
[9]
Gwynt Glas Offshore Wind Farm2026-06-26◆ EIA Scoping Report submitted for propose…
“Gwynt Glas Offshore Wind Farm, a pioneering project in the Celtic Sea, has submitted its Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Scoping Report to the Planning Inspectorate (PINS) Natural Resources Wale…”
supportsStatus note
[11]
Gwynt Glas Offshore Wind Farm2025-10-07◆ Gwynt glas signs agreement for lease wit…
“The developable area identified by The Crown Estate lies in Welsh waters, located ~40km at the closest point to shore.”
supportsDistance from shore
Auction pipeline1
[13]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press2
[6]
[7]