Five Estuaries
Split across two seabed areas covering 128km². Grid connection at East Anglia Connection Node near Lawford, Essex.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,080 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
The Crown Estate 2017 Offshore Wind Extensions opportunity · 2020 ·
Water depth
37–51 m ≈
Wind speed
9.9 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD ◆
Grid
Applied ◆
Connection
Five Estuaries 220/66 kV Offshore Substation — NESO TEC … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2030 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2032 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2032
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2030; Hafrok expects 2032 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈80%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; its size and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2031 | 14.1% |
| 2032 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2033 | 22.7% |
| 2034 | 14.6% |
| 2035 | 8.7% |
| 2036 | 5.1% |
| 2037 | 3.1% |
| 2038 | 1.8% |
| 2039 | 1.1% |
| 2040 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2029; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2027, the slower quarter not until 2030.3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2031 Q4. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2032, likely range 2032–2033 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2030) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈80%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2020-09
The Crown Estate 2017 Offshore Wind Extensions opportunity
- Awarded to
- incumbent operators of the seven parent farms
- Zone
- 2017 extensions award (seven projects)
- Basis
- seabed award
Founding JV · 2020-09
RWE · Siemens Financial Services · ESB · Sumitomo Corporation · Green Investment Group (Macquarie) — RWE (25%), Siemens Financial Services (25%), ESB (12.5%) and Sumitomo Corporation (12.5%) formed a consortium to secure the Five Estuaries Crown Estate lease as an extension to the 353 MW Galloper wind farm. Macquarie-managed GIG held 25% at formation. No cash consideration; new lease JV. Siemens Financial Services subsequently exited (date and terms undisclosed). DCO granted December 2025.
Evidence
- sumitomocorp.com — Sumitomo Corporation participates in development of Five Estuaries Offshore Wind Farm in the UK ↗ 2020-09 ◆ held
From the auction results — the round that created the project; founding JV from Hafrok’s transactions record.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030
Sources & verification
5/11 fields verified · rests on 14 sources (8 primary) · ◆ 8 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator4
[5]
UK Legislation (Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero)2025-12-17◆ The Five Estuaries Offshore Wind Farm Or…
“The Five Estuaries Offshore Wind Farm Order 2025 — Date made: 17th December 2025.”
supportsConsentConsent granted
[12]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 9803: Site Name "Five Estuaries - Wind Farm", Development Status "Application Submitted", Installed Capacity 300 MWelec, Operator "RWE Renewables"”
supportsRegister entry
[14]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-08-03◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q2 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 9803: Site Name "Five Estuaries - Wind Farm", Development Status "Planning Permission Granted", Installed Capacity 1080 MWelec, Operator "RWE Renewables", Recor…”
supportsRegister entry
[15]
The Planning Inspectorate (PINS)2026-08-23◆ PINS national infrastructure application…
“Project reference EN010115: "Five Estuaries Offshore Wind Farm"; applicant "Five Estuaries Offshore Wind Farm Ltd"; Stage "Post-decision"; anticipated submission between January and March 2024; applie…”
supportsRegister entry
Operator4
[3]
NESO2026-06-12◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“Five Estuaries Offshore Wind Farm,FIVE ESTUARIES OFFSHORE WIND FARM LIMITED,Five Estuaries 220/66 kV Offshore Substation,,0,1080,1080,31/10/2030,Scoping,Direct Connection,NGET,Wind Offshore,a1f4L00000…”
supportsCommercial operationStatusConnection point
[4]
RWE UK2025-12-18◆ Secretary of State grants planning conse…
“The project is owned by RWE (33.33%), a Macquarie-led consortium (25%), ESB (20.83%) and Sumitomo Corporation (20.83%). The project will seek a route to market ahead of financial decision and start of…”
supportsoperatorowner
[6]
Sumitomo Corporation Europe2025-12-17
“obtained a Development Consent Order from the UK Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero ... A potential maximum installed generation capacity of the Project is 1080MW ... power generation…”
supportsTotal capacityMechanism
[13]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-000450: "Five Estuaries Offshore Wind Farm", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2030-10-31, Customer "FIVE ESTUARIES OFFSHORE WIND FARM LIMI…”
supportsRegister entry
Auction pipeline1
[16]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press4
[7]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-12
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
[9]
[10]
[11]
Unverified import1
[1]