Erebus
Test & Demonstration project. 49km off West Wales. WindFloat semi-submersible platforms. Max blade tip 270m. Up to 10 WTGs.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
BGBlue Gem Wind — 100% ◇
Location
United KingdomCeltic Sea
Technology
Capacity
100 MW ◆
Turbines
7 × 14 MW ◇
Foundation
Floating ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held 2023-03 ◆
Water depth
70–77 m ≈
Wind speed
10.1 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · AR7 · £216.49/MWh ◆
Grid
Applied ◆
Connection
Pembroke 132kV Substation — NESO TEC register entry at Scoping … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2030 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈84%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; technical complexity weighs only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 3.9% |
| 2030 (expected) | 50.2% |
| 2031 | 29.5% |
| 2032 | 10.6% |
| 2033 | 3.8% |
| 2034 | 1.4% |
| 2035 | 0.6% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2023. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (floating, in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2028; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026, the slower quarter not until 2029.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2026–2029 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈84%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
CfD-backed offtake
● CfD · AR7
Price£155.37/MWh ·Basis2012 real · CPI-indexed
Capacity100 MWAwardedJan 2026Term20 yrs · delivery 2029/30
Money-of-the-day values computed by Hafrok from the United Kingdom CPI index, 2012 real base — actual to 2026-07, then an assumed +2.0%/yr (central-bank target). Cfd terms run 20 years from start of generation in the contracted delivery year.
Contract price over time · £/MWh
solid = actual CPI indexation · dashed = assumed +2.0%/yr
CfD · AR7
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030
Sources & verification
5/13 fields verified · rests on 13 sources (5 primary) · ◆ 6 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator3
[3]
Welsh Government2023-03-13◆ Consent granted for Wales’ first floatin…
“The Welsh Government has granted consent for Wales' first floating windfarm located 40km off the coast of Pembrokeshire. In determining the marine license and the planning consents, the Welsh Governme…”
supportsConsentSite rightsConsent granted
[4]
DESNZ2026-01◆ Contracts for Difference Allocation Roun…
“Erebus SM935014 Wales BLUE GEM WIND LIMITED Floating Offshore Wind 100.00 155.37 216.49 2029/30 1 4”
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacityMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[9]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 7861: Site Name "Erebus - Floating Offshore Wind Demonstration Project", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 100 MWelec, Operator "Si…”
supportsRegister entry
Operator5
[2]
NESO2026-06-12◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“Erebus,Blue Gem Wind Limited,Pembroke 132kV Substation,,0,95.25,95.25,26/07/2028,Scoping,Direct Connection,NGET,Wind Offshore,a1f4L000000EHJTQA4,PRO-000471,”
supportsStatusConnection point
[6]
[10]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-000471: "Erebus", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2028-07-26, Customer "Blue Gem Wind Limited"”
supportsRegister entry
[11]
TotalEnergies2020-03-19
“The Group has signed an agreement with the developer Simply Blue Energy to acquire 80% stake in the pioneering floating wind project Erebus located in the Celtic Sea, in Wales.”
supports↳ parent
[12]
Blue Gem Wind2023-11-30
“Blue Gem Wind, the joint venture between TotalEnergies and Simply Blue Group, have shared important wind speed data with Wales' Marine Energy Test Area (META).”
supports↳ parent
Auction results1
[13]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026-01◆ cfd-ar7-results-2026
Offshore Wind (Pot 3) cleared GBP 65.45 (2012) / 91.20 (2024): Awel y Môr A 775.00 MW; Dogger Bank South East/West Unit A 1,500.00 MW each; Norfolk Vanguard East A 1,380 / B 90 / C 75 MW; Norfolk Vang…
supportsCfD · AR7
Trade press3
[5]
[7]
[8]
Unverified import1
[1]