Dogger Bank South East

Part of Dogger Bank South 3GW complex (DBS East + DBS West). Located 100km+ off northeast England coast.

Status

Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage

ExpectedHafrok completion outlook

Ownership

RWE — 51% ◆

Masdar — 49% ◆

Location

United Kingdom

North Sea

Verification

6/13 fields verified

15 sources · ◆ 10 documents held

◆verified≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived

open the source register →

Technology

Capacity 1,500 MW ◆ Turbines 100 ◇

Foundation —

Site & conditions

Site rights Seabed rights held ∴

Origination Crown Estate Round 4 · 2021 ·

Water depth 13–33 m ≈ Wind speed 10.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈

Revenue & grid

Offtake CfD · AR7 · £91.2/MWh ◆ Grid Applied ◆ Connection Birkhill Wood 400kV substation (National Grid), TEC application ◆

Schedule

FID Not taken

COD · announced 2032 ◆

COD · Hafrok 2032 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2032

expected year of commercial operation

Chance of delivery

≈81% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation

Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; a very large build and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2031	3.9%
2032 (expected)	50.2%
2033	29.5%
2034	10.6%
2035	3.8%
2036	1.4%
2037	0.6%

How Hafrok got this date

Starting point: the last dated milestone

Consent granted in 2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.

Typical timing

Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2030; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2028, the slower quarter not until 2031.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2032, likely range 2028–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈81%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day

CfD-backed offtake

● CfD · AR7

Price£65.45/MWh ·

Basis2012 real · CPI-indexed

Capacity1,500 MW AwardedJan 2026

Term20 yrs · delivery 2030/31

Money-of-the-day values computed by Hafrok from the United Kingdom CPI index, 2012 real base — actual to 2026-07, then an assumed +2.0%/yr (central-bank target). Cfd terms run 20 years from start of generation in the contracted delivery year.

Contract price over time · £/MWh

solid = actual CPI indexation · dashed = assumed +2.0%/yr

CfD · AR7

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started

nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does

Installation · on record

StageAdvanced Development

Offshore constructionnot started

Expected start of operation2032

Grid connection

from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers

Offshore platforms · 0

Platformnone on the register

Export & onshore

Onshore connectionBirkhill Wood 400kV Substation·400 kV · consented · also serves Dogger Bank D, Dogger Bank South West

Onshore connectionHigh Marnham Substation·400 kV · planning · also serves Dogger Bank D, Dogger Bank South West

Grid connection · ready in time?

when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives

installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved

Sources & verification

6/13 fields verified · rests on 15 sources (10 primary) · ◆ 10 documents held

◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived

Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.

Regulator5

[3]

DESNZ2026-01-14◆ Contracts for Difference Allocation Roun…

“Dogger Bank South East CfD Unit A ... RWE RENEWABLES UK DOGGER BANK SOUTH (EAST) LIMITED ... Offshore Wind 1500.00 65.45 91.20 2030/31 3 3”

supportsTotal capacityMechanismStrike / priceDetail