Cenos

Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: its size and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

COD probability by year, conditional on completion
Year	Probability
2033	14.1%
2034 (expected)	28.0%
2035	22.7%
2036	14.6%
2037	8.7%
2038	5.1%
2039	3.1%
2040	1.8%
2041	1.1%
2042	0.7%

How Hafrok got this date

No dated milestone yet

Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (floating, in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.

Earliest credible date

Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2034 is not credible.

Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8

The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around 2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2032 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.

Result

Expected commercial operation 2034, likely range 2034–2040 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈55%, which rates it Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open

The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.

CfD allocation round

The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.

Next visible round · from the auction calendar

CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇

expected H2 2026 · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project

AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation

Corporate PPA

Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.

Merchant

Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started

nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does

Installation · on record

StageEarly Development

Offshore constructionnot started

Expected start of operation2031

Sources & verification

4/14 fields verified · rests on 15 sources (8 primary) · ◆ 7 documents held

◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived

Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.

Regulator2

[15]

Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…

“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 13528: Site Name "Cenos Offshore Wind Farm", Development Status "Application Submitted", Installed Capacity 1350 MWelec, Operator "Flotation Energy"”

supportsRegister entry