Buchan
ScotWind Floating. Off Aberdeenshire coast, northeast Scotland.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
960 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
Floating ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
ScotWind Leasing · 2022 ·
Water depth
75–108 m ≈
Wind speed
10.7 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Applied ◆
Connection
Peterhead 400kV Substation (SHET), 960 MW, TEC queue at Scoping … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2033 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2034 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2034
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2033; Hafrok expects 2034 — 1 year later.
Chance of delivery
≈58%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: its size and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2033 | 14.1% |
| 2034 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2035 | 22.7% |
| 2036 | 14.6% |
| 2037 | 8.7% |
| 2038 | 5.1% |
| 2039 | 3.1% |
| 2040 | 1.8% |
| 2041 | 1.1% |
| 2042 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (floating, in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2034 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2032 Q4. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2034, likely range 2034–2040 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈58%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2022-01
ScotWind Leasing
- Awarded to
- BayWa
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2033
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 0
Platformnone on the register
Export & onshore
Onshore connectionPeterhead Converter Station (Eastern Green Link 2)·525 DC / 400 AC kV · under construction
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
4/11 fields verified · rests on 15 sources (9 primary) · ◆ 8 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[3]
[16]
Scottish Government Marine Directorate (MD-LOT)2026-08-23◆ Scottish MD-LOT marine projects register…
“Register row "Buchan Offshore Wind" (key node/23694): Application stage "Pre-application", type "Renewables - Wind".”
supportsRegister entry
Operator5
[2]
NESO2026-06-12◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“Buchan 01 Offshore Wind Farm,BUCHAN OFFSHORE WIND LIMITED,Peterhead 400kV Substation,,0,960,960,31/10/2033,Scoping,Direct Connection,SHET,Wind Offshore,a1f4L000000EH5qQAG,PRO-001528,”
supportsCommercial operationStatusConnection point
[5]
BW Ideol2025
“Capacity: 960 MW ... NE8 designation, 75km northeast of Fraserburgh, Aberdeenshire coast ... August 2025: 'Buchan Offshore Wind has submitted its offshore consent applications to Scottish Ministers'”
supportsTotal capacity
[7]
Offshore Wind Biz2022-01-18◆ Scotland's New Floating Wind Projects – …
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
[14]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-001528: "Buchan 01 Offshore Wind Farm", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2033-10-31, Customer "BUCHAN OFFSHORE WIND LIMITED"”
supportsRegister entry
[15]
Buchan Offshore Wind2026-05-14◆ Planning milestone achieved by pioneerin…
“Buchan Offshore Wind has welcomed the decision by Aberdeenshire Council to grant planning consent for its onshore infrastructure [...] The decision was taken by councillors at a meeting of the local a…”
supportsStatus note
Auction pipeline1
[17]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press6
[8]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-07
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsowner
[9]
[10]
NS Energy2025
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
[11]
[12]
[13]
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown◆ Offshore Wind Scotland: ScotWind leasing…
supportsTotal capacityFoundationWater depth