Hafrok

Berwick Bank (Remaining Phases)

Phases A and C of the Berwick Bank complex, totalling approximately 2,720 MW (remainder of the 4.1 GW project after Phase B secured a CfD in AR7, January 2026).

Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
SSE Renewables — 100% ◇
Location
United Kingdom
North Sea
Verification
0/13 fields verified
8 sources · ◆ 6 documents held
≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred∅no source·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 2,720 MW ◇
Turbines —
Foundation —
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴
Origination Crown Estate Round 3 · 2010 ·
Water depth 41–62 m ≈ Distance from shore 38 km ◇ Wind speed 10.5 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid Not recorded ◇ Connection TEC application at Branxton and Blyth 400kV noted; phases A+C … ◇
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · announced 2033 ◇
COD · Hafrok 2033 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2033
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈70% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
20%40%60%80%100% 2032: 3.9% (conditional on completion) 2033: 50.2% (conditional on completion) 2034: 29.5% (conditional on completion) 2035: 10.6% (conditional on completion) 2036: 3.8% (conditional on completion) 2037: 1.4% (conditional on completion) 2038: 0.6% (conditional on completion)2026now202820302032203350%203420362038 Developer-announced COD: 2033 — in line with Hafrok’s expected year ANNOUNCED = EXPECTED 2033developer cod guidance2026-04 → 2026-06: the developer guided 2033 in 2 statements — sources [2] — click for the sources2026-062033 · held since 2026-04 (×2) [2]
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
20323.9%
2033 (expected)50.2%
203429.5%
203510.6%
20363.8%
20371.4%
20380.6%
Developer COD guidance, by the date it was stated
StatedAnnounced COD
2026-06-162033 (held since 2026-04-15, 2 statements)
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in 2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2029; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2027, the slower quarter not until 2030.
3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around 2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2031 Q4. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.
4
Result
Expected commercial operation 2033, likely range 2032–2033 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.
5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈70%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2010’11’12’13’14’15’16’17’18’19’20’21’22’23’24’25’26’27’28’29’30’31’32’33Developer-announced COD: 2033 announced COD 2033Crown Estate Round 3 — awarded to Seagreen Wind Energy (SSE + Fluor)Crown Estate Round 3 Jan 2010 · auction recordView the source for Consent grantedConsent granted 31 Jul 2025 ◇Commercial operation 2033 ·Hafrok expectedCrown Estate Round 3 — awarded to Seagreen Wind Energy (SSE + Fluor) 2010-01 ORIGINATIONTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDTODAYSeagreen Wind Energy (SSE + Fluor) Seagreen Wind Energy Seagreen Wind Energy not among today’s recorded owners — no sale recordedSSE Renewables — 100% today · operator SSE Renewables SSE Renewables 100%Crown Estate Round 3 — awarded to Seagreen Wind Energy (SSE + Fluor) Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2033, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
expected H2 2026 · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2033
Construction ports
PortPort of Dundee ∅
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
HVDC systemBerwick Bank Cambois HVDC·1800 MW · ±320 kV · planned, expected 2031
Export & onshore
Onshore connectionBranxton Substation (Berwick Bank / EGL1)·400 kV · consented · also serves Morven (North & South)
Onshore connectionCambois Converter Station (Berwick Bank)·400 kV · consented · also serves Berwick Bank Phase B
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
20262027202820292030203120322033Hafrok expects the farm to start in 2033developer’s stated start 2033nowBerwick Bank Cambois HVDCBerwick Bank Cambois HVDCexpected 2031expected 2031Branxton Substation (Berwick Bank / EGL1)Branxton Substation (Berwick Bank…Cambois Converter Station (Berwick Bank)Cambois Converter Station (Berwic…expected 2031expected 2031

Sources & verification

0/13 fields verified · rests on 8 sources (4 primary) · ◆ 6 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator3
[3]
Marine Scotland2025-07-31◆ Berwick Bank s36 consent decision (Marin…
"Section 36 Consent - Construction and Operation of Generating Station - Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm - Firth of Forth. Environmental Impact Assessment Decision Notice - Generating Station - Berwic…
supportsConsentConsent granted
source ↗
[7]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 9873: Site Name "Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 4100 MWelec, Operator "Scottish Southern Energ…”
supportsRegister entry
source ↗
[8]
Scottish Government Marine Directorate (MD-LOT)2026-08-23◆ Scottish MD-LOT marine projects register…
“Register row "Berwick Bank Wind Farm" (key ml/berwick-bank-offshore-wind-farm): Application stage "Application", type "Renewables - Wind".”
supportsRegister entry
source ↗
Operator2
[1]
SSE Renewables2026-06-16◆ Berwick Bank | SSE Renewables
“The Berwick Bank Wind Farm has the potential to deliver up to 4.1 GW of installed capacity ... 100% owned by SSE Renewables ... Located in the North Sea, in the outer Firth of Forth.”
supportsoperatorTotal capacityStatusConnection pointDistance from shore+1 more
source ↗
[2]
Berwick Bank Wind Farm (SSE Renewables)2026-01-14◆ SSE secures 1.4GW CfD for Berwick Bank W…
“the remaining two A and C phases of Berwick Bank are available for entry into upcoming auction rounds, with the UK's eighth CfD allocation round expected towards the end of this year”
supportsCommercial operationCOD historyTotal capacity
source ↗
Auction pipeline1
[9]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
source ↗
Trade press2
[5]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
source ↗
[6]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
source ↗