Berwick Bank Phase B
Part of 4.1GW Berwick Bank complex. Located 38km east of Scottish Borders. Could create 9,300 jobs at peak construction.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
SSE Renewables — 100% ◆Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,380 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
Jacket ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Crown Estate Round 3 · 2010 ·
Water depth
41–62 m ≈
Distance from shore
38 km ◇
Wind speed
10.5 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · AR7 · £89.49/MWh ◆
Grid
Secured ◆
Connection
Branxton, East Lothian and Blyth, Northumberland — two secured … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2031 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2031 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2031
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈84%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; its size and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2030 | 3.9% |
| 2031 (expected) | 50.2% |
| 2032 | 29.5% |
| 2033 | 10.6% |
| 2034 | 3.8% |
| 2035 | 1.4% |
| 2036 | 0.6% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2029; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2027, the slower quarter not until 2030.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2031, likely range 2027–2030 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈84%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2010-01
Crown Estate Round 3
- Awarded to
- Seagreen Wind Energy (SSE + Fluor)
- Zone
- Firth of Forth zone
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
CfD-backed offtake
● CfD · AR7
Price£64.23/MWh ·Basis2012 real · CPI-indexed
Capacity1,380 MWAwardedJan 2026Term20 yrs · delivery 2030/31
Money-of-the-day values computed by Hafrok from the United Kingdom CPI index, 2012 real base — actual to 2026-07, then an assumed +2.0%/yr (central-bank target). Cfd terms run 20 years from start of generation in the contracted delivery year.
Contract price over time · £/MWh
solid = actual CPI indexation · dashed = assumed +2.0%/yr
CfD · AR7
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2031
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
HVDC systemBerwick Bank Cambois HVDC·1800 MW · ±320 kV · planned, expected 2031
Export & onshore
Onshore connectionBranxton Substation (Berwick Bank / EGL1)·400 kV · consented · also serves Morven (North & South)
Onshore connectionCambois Converter Station (Berwick Bank)·400 kV · consented · also serves Berwick Bank (Remaining Phases)
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
6/13 fields verified · rests on 14 sources (5 primary) · ◆ 7 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator4
[3]
DESNZ2026-01◆ Contracts for Difference Allocation Roun…
“Berwick Bank Phase B NT730745 Scotland BERWICK BANK B LIMITED Offshore Wind-Scotland 1380.00 64.23 89.49 2030/31 3 3”
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacityMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[4]
Marine Scotland2025-07-31◆ Berwick Bank s36 consent decision (Marin…
“Section 36 Consent - Construction and Operation of Generating Station - Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm - Firth of Forth. Environmental Impact Assessment Decision Notice - Generating Station - Berwick…”
supportsConsentConsent granted
[13]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 9873: Site Name "Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 4100 MWelec, Operator "Scottish Southern Energ…”
supportsRegister entry
[15]
Scottish Government Marine Directorate (MD-LOT)2026-08-23◆ Scottish MD-LOT marine projects register…
“Register row "Berwick Bank Wind Farm" (key ml/berwick-bank-offshore-wind-farm): Application stage "Application", type "Renewables - Wind".”
supportsRegister entry
Operator3
[6]
Berwick Bank Wind Farm (SSE Renewables)2026-06-15
“We have secured a grid connection at Branxton, near Torness, in East Lothian.”
supportsStatusConnection point
[8]
[14]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-002628-1: "Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm B", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2029-10-31, Customer "Berwick Bank B Limited"; PRO-002628-…”
supportsRegister entry
Auction results1
[16]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026-01◆ cfd-ar7-results-2026
Offshore Wind (Pot 3) cleared GBP 65.45 (2012) / 91.20 (2024): Awel y Môr A 775.00 MW; Dogger Bank South East/West Unit A 1,500.00 MW each; Norfolk Vanguard East A 1,380 / B 90 / C 75 MW; Norfolk Vang…
supportsCfD · AR7
Trade press4
[7]
Berwick Bank Wind Farm Ltd (EIA Application)2022
“considering both piled and suction caisson foundation options, along with options for transportation and installation of the jacket substructures.”
supportsFoundation
[10]
[11]
[12]
Unverified import1
[1]
Encyclopaedic1
[9]