Awel y Môr
West of existing Gwynt y Môr wind farm, 10.5km off North Wales coast. Expected to create 2,000 construction jobs.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Location
United KingdomIrish Sea
Technology
Capacity
775 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
The Crown Estate 2017 Offshore Wind Extensions opportunity · 2020 ·
Water depth
22–39 m ≈
Distance from shore
10.5 km ◇
Wind speed
9.9 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · AR7 · £91.2/MWh ◆
Grid
Applied ◆
Connection
Bodelwyddan 400kV Substation — NESO TEC register entry at … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2031 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2031 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2031
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈87%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; its size and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2030 | 3.9% |
| 2031 (expected) | 50.2% |
| 2032 | 29.5% |
| 2033 | 10.6% |
| 2034 | 3.8% |
| 2035 | 1.4% |
| 2036 | 0.6% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2023. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2027; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2025, the slower quarter not until 2028.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2031, likely range 2025–2028 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈87%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2020-09
The Crown Estate 2017 Offshore Wind Extensions opportunity
- Awarded to
- incumbent operators of the seven parent farms
- Zone
- 2017 extensions award (seven projects)
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
CfD-backed offtake
● CfD · AR7
Price£65.45/MWh ·Basis2012 real · CPI-indexed
Capacity775 MWAwardedJan 2026Term20 yrs · delivery 2030/31
Money-of-the-day values computed by Hafrok from the United Kingdom CPI index, 2012 real base — actual to 2026-07, then an assumed +2.0%/yr (central-bank target). Cfd terms run 20 years from start of generation in the contracted delivery year.
Contract price over time · £/MWh
solid = actual CPI indexation · dashed = assumed +2.0%/yr
CfD · AR7
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2031
Sources & verification
6/13 fields verified · rests on 15 sources (9 primary) · ◆ 9 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator4
[5]
DESNZ2026-01◆ Contracts for Difference Allocation Roun…
“Awel y Môr Offshore Wind Farm A SJ015735 Wales AWEL Y MôR OFFSHORE WIND FARM LIMITED Offshore Wind 775.00 65.45 91.20 2030/31 2 3”
supportsTotal capacityMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[6]
Planning Inspectorate2023-09-20◆ Awel y Mor DCO (EN010112)
“The application was granted on 20 September 2023. ... Awel y Môr Offshore Wind Farm ... This project is at the post-decision stage. This application was granted on 20 September 2023.”
supportsConsentConsent granted
[12]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 7699: Site Name "Awel y Mor Offshore Wind Farm", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 775 MWelec, Operator "RWE Renewables"”
supportsRegister entry
[16]
The Planning Inspectorate (PINS)2026-08-23◆ PINS national infrastructure application…
“Project reference EN010112: "Awel y Môr Offshore Wind Farm"; applicant "Awel y Môr Offshore Wind Farm Limited"; Stage "Post-decision"; anticipated submission Q2 2022; applied 2022-04-20; accepted 2022…”
supportsRegister entry
Operator5
[3]
NESO2026-06-12◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“Awel Y Mor,AWEL Y MOR OFFSHORE WIND FARM LIMITED,Bodelwyddan 400kV Substation,2,0,526,1100,01/04/2028,Scoping,Direct Connection,NGET,Wind Offshore”
supportsStatusConnection point
[4]
RWE AG2026-01-14◆ RWE secures CfDs for 6.9 GW of offshore …
“The Awel y Môr offshore wind development project is jointly owned by RWE (60%), Stadtwerke München (30%) and Siemens (10%). RWE is leading the development of the project on behalf of the project partn…”
supportsoperatorinvestorCommercial operation
[8]
[13]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-000529-1: "Awel Y Mor", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2027-04-01, Customer "AWEL Y MOR OFFSHORE WIND FARM LIMITED"; PRO-000529-2: "Awel…”
supportsRegister entry
[15]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-08-14◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 14 August 2026 — Project Number PRO-000529: Project Name "Awel Y Mor", Customer "AWEL Y MOR OFFSHORE WIND FARM LIMITED", Connection Site "Bodelwyddan 400kV Substation", MW I…”
supportsRegister entry
Auction results1
[17]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026-01◆ cfd-ar7-results-2026
Offshore Wind (Pot 3) cleared GBP 65.45 (2012) / 91.20 (2024): Awel y Môr A 775.00 MW; Dogger Bank South East/West Unit A 1,500.00 MW each; Norfolk Vanguard East A 1,380 / B 90 / C 75 MW; Norfolk Vang…
supportsCfD · AR7
Trade press4
[7]
4C Offshore2026
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityCoordinates
[9]
[10]
[11]
Unverified import1
[1]