Hafrok

Wei Lan Hai Changhua

Wei Lan Hai Changhua, off Changhua County — 440 MW, ~53 km2, water depth 15-45 m.

Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
ESEDF power solutions ◆
TRTaiya Renewable Energy ◆
Location
Taiwan
Taiwan Strait
Verification
1/9 fields verified
7 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆verified≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 440 MW ◇
Turbines —
Foundation —
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴
Origination Taiwan Round 3 Zonal Development — Block 3.1 (區塊開發 3-1) · 2022 ·
Water depth 15–45 m ◇ Wind speed 10.3 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid —
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · Hafrok 2033 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2033
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈64% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; technical complexity pulls the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2032: 14.1% (conditional on completion) 2033: 28.0% (conditional on completion) 2034: 22.7% (conditional on completion) 2035: 14.6% (conditional on completion) 2036: 8.7% (conditional on completion) 2037: 5.1% (conditional on completion) 2038: 3.1% (conditional on completion) 2039: 1.8% (conditional on completion) 2040: 1.1% (conditional on completion) 2041: 0.7% (conditional on completion)2026now202820302032203328%EXPECTED2034203620382040
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
203214.1%
2033 (expected)28.0%
203422.7%
203514.6%
20368.7%
20375.1%
20383.1%
20391.8%
20401.1%
20410.7%
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.
2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2033 is not credible.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈64%, which rates it Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2023’24’25’26’27’28’29’30’31’32’33Taiwan Round 3 Zonal Development — Block 3.1 (區塊開發 3-1) — awarded to Taiya Renewable + EDF RenewablesTaiwan Round 3 Zonal Development — Block 3.1 (區塊開發 3-1) Dec 2022 · auction recordCommercial operation 2033 ·Hafrok expectedTaiwan Round 3 Zonal Development — Block 3.1 (區塊開發 3-1) — awarded to Taiya Renewable + EDF Renewables 2022-12 ORIGINATIONTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDTODAYTaiya Renewable + EDF Renewables Taiya Renewable + EDF R… Taiya Renewable + EDF R… not among today’s recorded owners — no sale recordedEDF power solutions EDF power solutions EDF power solutionsTaiya Renewable Energy Taiya Renewable Energy Taiya Renewable EnergyTaiwan Round 3 Zonal Development — Block 3.1 (區塊開發 3-1) — awarded to Taiya Renewable + EDF Renewables Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Taiwan Round 3 Zonal Development — Block 3.3 (區塊開發 3-3) ◇
expected H2 2026 · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project
Applications opened 1 April 2026 and close end-September 2026; results expected end-2026 (year-level estimate, no official results date announced).

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated

Sources & verification

1/9 fields verified · rests on 7 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator2
[6]
EDF Power Solutions2026
supportsWater depth
source ↗
[8]
EDF power solutions Taiwan2026◆ EDF power solutions: Wei Lan Hai Changhu…
"Wei Lan Hai Changhua ... 440 MW Total Capacity ... Hold by EDF power solutions (80.1%) and Taiya Renewable (19.9%) ... located off the coast of Changhua County ... approximately 53 square-kilometers,…
supportsowner
source ↗
Auction pipeline1
[10]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-03◆ tw-zonal33-owbiz-2026
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTaiwan Round 3 Zonal Development — Block 3.3 (區塊開發 3-3)
source ↗
Trade press3
[3]
Offshore Wind Biz2025-05◆ All Round 3.2 Offshore Wind Contracts Su…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
source ↗
[5]
GEM2026
supportsTotal capacityCoordinates
source ↗
[7]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
source ↗
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityWater depthCoordinates
source ↗